2023 Asset Group Analysis – (e,k)

The (e,k) Asset Group contains three SPs projected for Full-time workloads of 180+ IP, 16 Mid-timers, a closer, and a couple of late-round/low-cost longshot SPs. The headliner of the group is Alek Manoah (pictured), whose Risk Cost is only $0.50 (Rg-). Just how much regression is in play? The caution is that his 2022 H%/S% of 25%/82% helped keep his ERA of 2.24 a run-and-a-half lower than his xERA of 3.31. His 2022 ERA/xERA showed a half-run differential at 3.22/3.79, so his 2023 ERA is more likely to be just under 3.00 than just over 2.00. With the juiced ball era over, you might be satisfied for the 25-year-old as your No. 1 SP at his investment cost, especially in keeper leagues.

Logan Gilbert is a low-risk (nobody is ever really risk-free, even with $0 cost) Full-timer at age 26. Like Manoah, he is especially attractive in keeper leagues, but he’s not yet anyone’s No. 1. Still, he’s on an improved Mariners team in a weak division at a pitcher-friendly home park, so he makes a worthy target in that context.  The final Full-timer is Kyle Wright, another relative youngster at age 27. Watch how his sore shoulder affects his spring training after his 180 IP workload in 2022. His GB%/FB% of 56%/27% drove the turnaround, and that may be difficult to repeat. But in 30 GS, he went at least six innings 24 times for the 101-win Braves.

Two more keeper-league gems shine among the (e,k) Mid-timers. Twenty-seven-year-old Drew Rasmussen’s only liability is the $1 inexperience Risk Cost. He matched a 2.84 ERA/1.08 WHIP over 76 IP in 2021 with a 2.84 ERA/1.04 WHIP over 146 IP in 2022. Brady Singer stands out with his $0 Risk Cost, and he’s only 26. The former first-rounder advanced from 10 QS/27 GS in 2021 to 14 QS/24 GS in 2022, lowering his ERA from 4.91 to 3.23 and his WHIP from 1.55 to 1.14. Singer’s high GB rate and low BB rate should help him maintain those gains. Boring veteran Jose Quintana is a BABS bargain at age 34 with only the $0.25 Risk Cost of moving to a new team—but he’s joining the mighty Mets, so how bad can that be? Even if it’s not as good as a career-high strand rate of 76% aiding a career-lowest ERA of 2.93 and a career-second-lowest WHIP of 1.21, he’s likely worth a Round 26 pick or virtual freebie.

Finally, could this be—finally, at age 33—the big rebound year for Ross Stripling, who returned to health in 2022 after teasing us since 2018? Not only is he healthy now, but . . . he’s on the Giants! The Giants, the kings of SP reclamation projects at their pitcher-friendly park! What could go wrong? Well, after a career-best HR/FB ratio of just 8%, Ron Shandler’s 2023 Baseball Forecaster says “HR prevention will backslide, which might be enough to push ERA back over 4.00. Add in risk of IP decline, and he’s likely to be overvalued.” But only Chase Field suppresses more HRs than SF’s Oracle Park at -30% for RHB and -25% for LHB, and how overvalued can the last player on your roster be?

But wait, there’s more! Look who’s a returning Giant and new teammate of Stripling’s: Alex Wood. After consecutive seasons of 26 GS averaging 135 IP, Wood is now only an (inj-) risk, with a reasonable Risk Cost of $1. And he’s an afterthought after his bloated 5.10 ERA in 2022. But a sub-par strand rate of just 61% contributed to that, and his xERA was just 3.40. No wonder he has a (Rg+) asset. Wood makes a solid (sorry) end-game target.

NOTES: The ratings in the above analysis may vary slightly from the latest database update which was run after this analysis was written. To engage with other readers on this topic, head over to the Reader Forums. If you have a question that would be best answered by one of our experts and benefit everyone, submit it on our Contact Page and put MAILBAG in the Subject Line.