2022 Last Year’s “Bums”

by Doug Gruber

Wow, these guys were bad! They wrecked many fantasy rosters, ruining dreams of league crowns and prizes.

But that was 2021. Time to move on. What is important now is to get a BABS perspective about their 2022 outlook, at current ADP prices. For this exercise, we are not going to look at players who hugely missed expectations because of unexpected injuries (Bieber, Betts,…), expected injuries (Mondesi, Strasburg,…), or off-field issues (Bauer, Ozuna,…). Rather, we will focus on guys who flat out had lousy seasons.

Yu Darvish (e,KK) had a spectacular 2020 and was cruising through the early months of 2021. Then the wheels fell off. Darvish’s ratios over his final thirteen starts were 6.72/1.32. He tried to play through hip issues, lost a tick in velocity, and yielded a whopping 15 home runs over his final 61 innings. But his FIP says he deserved much better, his walk rate remained elite, and he had full offseason to recover. BABS Take: Invest.

To say Luis Castillo (e,KK) started poorly would be an understatement. He was shelled for 8 ERs on Opening Day, then another 8 ERs at Coors in May. When May ended, Castillo sat at 7.22/1.78…yikes! He turned it around over the final four months: 22 starts, 7 wins, 2.73/1.20, K/9 of 10. Looking at the total body of work, BABS feels his Er skills slipped, the home park is scary, and, while Castillo should be much better than his 2021 stat line, a sixth-round price is a tad too expensive. BABS Take: Pass.

An ill-timed home run celebration made Cody Bellinger (p,a), pictured, an injury risk entering last season, but his upside kept his price high. He battled through his ailments, but when he played, his previous skills in power, batting and speed were nowhere to be found. Will he rebound? 2019 was an incredible MVP-season for him, and his 2021 playoff performance was encouraging. However, BABS is genuinely concerned, and reduced his skills assets from his previous (PW,s,AV). Bellinger’s price markdown to the seventh round seems tempting, however, BABS offers numerous comparable players at far greater discounts. BABS Take: Pass.

Aaron Nola (ER,KK) was a 2nd round pick last year, and he returned 15th round value, with only nine wins during his 32 starts, and an ERA of 4.63. But looking deeper, Nola merited a superior outcome. He had 223/39 K/BB in 180 innings (24.6%!), and his FIP and SIERA numbers were more than a full run below his actual ERA. He also has made every start over the past four seasons, other than a brief IL stint due to Covid close contact. BABS Take: Invest.

After five straight seasons of sub 3.50 ERAs, the market made Kyle Hendricks (-K) a 6-7 round pick in search of that stability. Hendricks made his 32 starts, but had a roller coaster season, which netted career-worst ratios of 4.77/1.35, and a career low 16.7% K-rate. BABS was not a supporter last year and thinks Hendricks could do damage again to your rosters. BABS Take: Pass.

Entering 2021, Jeff McNeil (AV) carried the rare (A+) designation, after three consecutive seasons posting a .310 BA or greater. McNeil started slowly, and things snowballed from there, as his BA, OBP, OPS, and expected power all hit career lows. BABS lowered his batting skills a rung, and the Mets roster is much more crowded, but this is still an (AV) bat, and McNeil is available after pick 300. BABS Take: Invest.

Jesus Luzardo (k|-E) was a trendy breakout target in 2021, with drafters pushing his price into the top 100. Based on his skills profile, BABS warned against an investment at that rising ADP cost. Luzardo proceeded to have a miserable year, with 154 hits+walks allowed in only 95 innings, along with 70 earned runs. Still, his last start included 11 strikeouts in 5+ innings, flashing his ceiling potential. That single outing is not enough to change BABS’ rating. BABS Take: Pass.

In his 2020 debut, Alec Bohm (a) delivered a .338 BA in his first 160 at-bats, sending his 2021 draft price as high as round 7. Unfortunately, Bohm bombed (sorry!). He hit just .247, continued to lack power, and experienced a major plunge in his contact rate. That, and his issues in the field, landed him back at AAA Lehigh. BABS was skeptical a year ago and rates him the same for 2022. Yes, he is much cheaper this year but still not on BABS’ recommendation list. BABS Take: Pass.

Andres Gimenez (S+) was also a hot commodity as his trade from the Mets to Cleveland brought visions of a full-time speed source at middle infield. Gimenez started slowly, his playing time dwindled, and by May he was demoted. He showed improvements in his hitting skills upon his August return, and excelled on the base paths, going 11-for-11 on SB attempts. Recency bias and playing time uncertainty have discounted his price near Round 20, but BABS places Gimenez in the extreme speed class. Draft the skills. BABS Take: Invest.

Other “Bums” to Invest In: Christian Yelich (p,s,a), Wil Myers (PW,a), Michael Conforto (p,a), Blake Snell (e,KK), Sonny Gray (e,KK).

Other “Bums” to Pass On: D.J. LeMahieu (AV|-P), Gleyber Torres (a), Trent Grisham (-), Zach Plesac (-), Zack Greinke (-).