2022 Asset Group Analysis – (k)

(Photo by Gavin Napier/Icon Sportswire)

by Curt Brooks

Asset groups are a key component of the BABS system. They are our means to assemble players with comparable skills profiles and then review how the marketplace ranks them. The philosophy is that, if several players are comparable, they should be valued at about the same level. As described in Chapter 2 of The BABS Project 3.1, that’s not always the case. Here is where we can uncover opportunities to build profit into our rosters.

(k)
ADP R$ PITCHER Pos Tm PT Er K Sv Pk Rg Sk- Inj Ex Nw Ag Pk Rg Cost
201 $6 Urquidy,Jose SP HOU P k INJ e 4.00
225 $4 Means,John SP BAL M k INJ 3.00
272 $3 Ober,Bailey SP MIN M k EX 2.00
305 $1 Patino,Luis SP TBR M k EX 2.00
307 $1 Taillon,Jameson SP NYY M k INJ 3.00
316 $1 Lauer,Eric SP MLW M k Rg- 0.25
335 $1 Hernandez,Elieser SP MIA P k INJ e 4.00
337 $0 Kikuchi,Yusei SP SEA M k 0
344 $0 Alzolay,Adbert SP CHC M k Rg+ inj- e 2.00
360 $0 Cortes,Nestor SP NYY M k INJ e 4.00
362 $0 Pivetta,Nick SP BOS M k 0
404 $0 Dunning,Dane SP TEX M k inj- e 2.00
407 $0 Corbin,Patrick SP WAS M k Rg+ 0
453 $(1) Weaver,Luke SP ARZ M k INJ 3.00
468 $(2) Suarez,Jose SP LAA M k inj- e 2.00
494 $(2) Brubaker,Jonathan SP PIT M k Rg+ e 1.00
507 $(3) Gomber,Austin SP COL P k INJ e 4.00
609 $(4) Peterson,David SP NYM P k Rg+ INJ EX 5.00
632 $(5) Price,David rp LAD P k inj- Ag 1.25
681 $(5) Steele,Justin rp CHC P k inj- EX 3.00
739 $(6) Martinez,Carlos rp STL P k Rg+ INJ 3.00
750 $(6) Thompson,Keegan rp CHC P k inj- EX Rg- 3.25

The (k) group is populated by pitchers with a generally lower market outlook, starting with picks in the later middle rounds and extending to end-game selections. It is also a group with varying playing time and includes many with either injury or experience liabilities, including more than a few with both. This group presents further challenges as BABS also suggests that only about 10 in this group have a positive Rotisserie dollar value (R$).

However, some of these pitchers can provide significant support to your staff as later-round/end-game picks. Looking back at the (k) asset group from 2021 is instructional. Those included (shown with their latest 2022 BABS projections) were Julio Urias (e,k), Frankie Montas (e,KK), Tyler Mahle (e,KK), and Tanner Houck (ER,KK). This review serves to illustrate the idea that significant value can be mined here, particularly among pitchers under 28 with several years of experience. But note that none of those success stories carried an injury liability heading into last season.

But the flip side was some other 2021 members who didn’t fare quite as well: Dylan Bundy (k|-E), Jake Odorizzi (|-E), and Josh Lindblom (DFA’d by Milwaukee last May and is not on their current roster).

Two of the more recognizable names in this year’s list are Jose Urquidy and John Means (pictured), both of whom will require at least some minimum investment. Both are also (k) repeaters from 2021 and carry a good amount of risk. But the depth of options in this group means you won’t need to open your wallet for either one.

Here are some reasonable options. The Twins’ Bailey Ober is only 26 and could be a worthwhile choice in later rounds. Similarly, the Rays are bringing along Luis Patino carefully, but he is penciled into their starting rotation heading into the season.

There are some lower-risk options. Eric Lauer is looking at a starting slot, but BABS suggests that some pullback may occur following his best MLB season yet. 31-year-old Yusei Kikuchi bears watching as a late-round flyer. Veterans Nick Pivetta and Patrick Corbin are also considerations in the end game. Bear in mind that any of these selections are easily replaceable during the season if necessary.

As a flyer, Jameson Taillon is coming off ankle surgery (following a missed 2020 season due to TJS) but if he can regain some of his previous skills, he could provide value on a solid Yankees club.

Finally, a couple of other intriguing selections that bear watching include Jonathan Brubaker and Adbert Alzolay, each of whom is under age 28 and has several years of experience under their belt – they could be poised to take a step forward. And the venerable David Price might also be a worthwhile selection with the caveat that he is years removed from his days of providing 15+ wins and any current value will likely come in relief outings.