2022 Asset Group Analysis – (e,k)

Asset groups are a key component of the BABS system. They are our means to assemble players with comparable skills profiles and then review how the marketplace ranks them. The philosophy is that, if several players are comparable, they should be valued at about the same level. As described in Chapter 2 of The BABS Project 3.1, that’s not always the case. Here is where we can uncover opportunities to build profit into our rosters.

(e,k)
ADP R$ PITCHER Pos Tm PT Er K Sv Pk Rg Sk- Inj Ex Nw Ag Pk Rg RISK
36 $22 Urias,Julio SP LAD F e k Rg- 0.25
40 $21 Alcantara,Sandy SP MIA F e k 0
75 $15 Berrios,Jose SP TOR F e k 0
126 $10 Mahle,Tyler SP CIN M e k 0
130 $10 Lopez,Pablo SP MIA M e k INJ 3.00
139 $9 Gallen,Zac SP ARZ M e k Rg+ INJ e 4.00
147 $9 Anderson,Ian SP ATL M e k inj- e 2.00
149 $8 Manaea,Sean SP OAK M e k 0
173 $7 Suarez,Ranger SP PHI M e k INJ e Rg- 4.25
197 $6 Clevinger,Mike SP SDP P e k INJ 3.00
200 $6 Ryu,Hyun-Jin SP TOR M e k inj- 1.00
211 $5 Syndergaard,Noah SP LAA M e k Rg+ INJ 3.00
216 $5 Montgomery,Jordan SP NYY M e k 0
223 $5 Wood,Alex SP SFG M e k INJ 3.00
248 $3 Marquez,German SP COL F e k 0
261 $3 Gray,Jon SP TEX M e k Pk+ inj- Nw 1.25
278 $2 Rasmussen,Drew SP TBR P e k EX Rg- 2.25
327 $1 Strasburg,Stephen SP WAS P e k INJ 3.00

The 18 players in this asset group range from rounds 3 to 22 in a 15-team league, and contains mid-level pitchers who would typically slot in as your No. 3/4 starter. There are some remarkably profitable targets here as well as some obvious potholes. As it turns out, the pocket of safest buys occurs right at the top, so this is one of those groups where the risk-averse drafter might not want to wait.

But double-dipping would be an appropriate approach too. If you manage to draft one of Urias, Alcantara, Berrios or Mahle, you could back him up with one of these intriguing, comparably-skilled options:

Sean Manaea is being drafted at the tail end of the 9th round, and the combination of his clean liability slate and favorable ballpark make him a prime mid-round pick. About three rounds later, Mike Clevinger is an intriguing option for those who have room in their risk budget. Currently profiling as a part-timer, a clean bill of health could see him surge in the rankings; remember that his ADP in 2020 was 20 (!) just prior to undergoing TJS.

In round 15, Jordan Montgomery’s $0 risk cost and comparable skills profile (they’re all comparable, remember?) back the always dangerous Yankees offense. Two rounds later, another low-risk option, German Marquez gets his usual Coors Field discount, but he’s posted a sub-4.00 xERA in three of the last four years. So, there’s potential profit here.

Finally, where is the downside in drafting these skills from hobbling stud Stephen Strasburg (pictured) in the 22nd round? He may have been M.I.A. for the past two seasons, but he was a second-rounder in 2020. Seems like a free pick here, even at his risk cost.