2021 Unmatched Twins

by Doug Gruber

We know that players with the same asset ratings possess comparable skills sets. For asset groups that contain just two players, we could call them Twins. If their respective draft costs are far apart, we might call them Unmatched Twins.

For 2021, certain pairs look obvious to us. When we consider Christian Yelich and Cody Bellinger as the (PW,s,AV) group, it is easy to see the similarities…significant power, the ability to hit for a high average as well as the speed to steal a serviceable number of bases. Further, both are coming off down seasons by their standards–we could envision both players positively regressing to their prior performance levels. And the market is indifferent, selecting them within a few picks of one another at the end of round 1.

At first glance, other sets of Twins in the BABS ratings may not seem to be as comparable. But if we examine closer, perhaps we will see that these sets are more alike than we think.

AARON JUDGE and WILL SMITH (P+,a)

We don’t need to spend much time analyzing Aaron Judge’s asset ranking, or his annual INJ liability. Judge again displayed his power during 2020 when he hit nine home runs with 20 RBI over his first 17 games, with an OPS of 1.091 before another injury derailed his season. He has hit a home run every 15 plate appearances in his career, including 52 in one season. He also has a career batting average of 272.

Is Will Smith his twin? In 2021 when Smith returned from the IL in late August, he went on a tear, hitting .329 with an hefty OPS of 1.073. The power metrics were fully supported by Statcast rankings at/near the top 10 for all major categories. Smith has 23 home runs in his first 91 Major League games, along with a .268 batting average. Smith also showed impressive plate discipline in 2020, with a walk rate of 14.6% and a strikeout rate of only 16.1%. BABS says Smith’s power and batting assets are real, although the EX-tag reminds us that his lack of MLB experience still makes him a less-than fully-formed package.

[ED NOTE: After this was written, C.J Cron edged up into this group after his signing by Colorado. These are now unmatched triplets.]

HYUN-JIN RYU and FRAMBER VALDEZ (ER,k)

In 2019, Ryu had an ERA of 2.32 and a WHIP of 1.01 for the Dodgers. The market expected a fall off for 2020, but he was not impacted much by his move to Toronto, using his diverse pitch arsenal and elite command to produce ratios of 2.69/1.15 while increasing his K (26%) and swinging strike (12.3%) rates. Entering his age 34 season, Ryu has been a model of consistent excellence, and his asset ratings reflect as such.

Not many would have foreseen Valdez supplying these numbers in 2020…a 2.94 xFIP along with a 26 percent K-rate and a 5.6 percent walk rate while maintaining his excellent 60 percent GB rate. He went on to deliver a 1.88 ERA over an additional 24 playoff innings. Once plagued with control issues and gopheritis, BABS confirms that Valdez has transformed his skills into roughly the equivalent of Ryu, the only difference being, again, over a much smaller sample size.

ADELBERTO MONDESI and GARRETT HAMPSON (S+)

By the end of last August, Mondesi was hitting .186, and was 8-for-13 in SBs. He proceeded to go wild in September, hitting .356 with 6 home runs and 16 steals, giving him 24 for the year to easily lead the majors. Mondesi’s speed skills are undeniable, and he runs in nearly two-thirds of his opportunities. But a 2nd round pick to acquire what is essentially a volatile single-category player requires a prescription strength antacid.

Hampson has elite speed scores nearly identical to Mondesi and a track record for stolen base success. He also mirrors Mondesi with his below average plate skills and poor contact rate. In September 2019, Hampson logged nine steals, but it didn’t carry over to 2020. Colorado had other options at 2B and CF, and he lost his job. Entering 2021, Nolan Arenado, Daniel Murphy and David Dahl have departed and the Rockies seem to be in rebuild mode, perhaps providing Hampson with another chance. At an ADP in the 18th round, there is immense profit potential for a pseudo-Mondesi clone.

KYLE TUCKER and NOLAN JONES (PW,SB)

Kyle Tucker finally found full-time work in 2020, and delivered nine home runs and eight stolen bases, stats that were fully supported by strong underlying skills. Nolan Jones finds himself in the same position where Tucker was three seasons ago as the Indians top-rated prospect. During four minor league seasons and last year’s instructional league, Jones displayed an impressive power profile and recently added a propensity to steal bases. The questions will be, can he hit for enough average and find a position to go from prospect to major leaguer?

Tucker seems to be reaching his potential, and the market is completely buying into his skills, pushing his price into the 2nd round. BABS foresees the similarities in skills sets, and it would not be a surprise if Jones follows in Tucker’s footsteps if given the opportunity. Stashing a Tucker look-alike may prove valuable later this summer.

OTHER TWINS:

ANDRES GIMENEZ and JON BERTI (SB|-P)

DYLAN MOORE and NIKO GOODRUM (p,s)

LORENZO CAIN and ANDRELTON SIMMONS (s,AV|-P)

DEVIN WILLIAMS and TREVOR MAY (E+,K+)