2021 Thirdbasemen
(Photo by Frank Jansky/Icon Sportswire)
by Doug Gruber
BABS has taught us that players with the same asset ratings are pretty much interchangeable. The third base pool for 2021 is teeming with a wide range of acquisition costs for players within asset groups, providing for market leverage opportunities.
Want to acquire Jose Ramirez (pictured) in the 10th round? Or how about Anthony Rendon in the 15th? BABS has identified those targets. Trying to decide if Kris Bryant will have a bounce back year? BABS says that’s an unproductive exercise and offers other suggestions.
Let’s take a closer look at the BABS ratings for the 2021 thirdbasemen:
| ADP | R$ | BATTER | Pos | Tm | PT | Pw | Sp | Av | * | Pk | Rg | Sk- | Inj | Ex | Nw | Ag | Pk | Rg | |
| 10 | $35 | Ramirez,Jose | 5 | CLE | F | p | s | AV | * | – | |||||||||
| 139 | $10 | Hayes,KeBryan | 5 | PIT | F | p | s | AV | – | EX | Rg | ||||||||
| 42 | $21 | Rendon,Anthony | 5 | LAA | F | PW | AV | * | – | ||||||||||
| 222 | $5 | Turner,Justin | 50 | LA | F | PW | AV | – | Ag | Rg | |||||||||
| 603 | $(5) | Jones,Nolan | 0 | CLE | P | PW | SB | * | – | EX | |||||||||
| 329 | $1 | Rios,Edwin | 5 | LA | M | P+ | Rg | – | EX | ||||||||||
| 22 | $28 | Machado,Manny | 5 | SD | F | p | AV | – | |||||||||||
| 41 | $21 | Bregman,Alex | 5 | HOU | F | p | AV | * | Rg | – | inj- | ||||||||
| 43 | $21 | Devers,Rafael | 5 | BOS | F | p | AV | – | |||||||||||
| 131 | $10 | Edman,Tommy | 5o69 | STL | F | s | a | – | e | ||||||||||
| 33 | $24 | Arenado,Nolan | 5 | STL | F | p | a | Rg | – | Nw | Pk | ||||||||
| 134 | $10 | Bryant,Kris | 5 | CHC | F | p | a | Rg | – | ||||||||||
| 308 | $2 | Escobar,Eduardo | 5 | ARI | F | p | a | Rg | – | ||||||||||
| 86 | $14 | Moncada,Yoan | 5 | CHW | F | p | s | – | |||||||||||
| 158 | $8 | Urshela,Giovanny | 5 | NYY | F | AV | – | INJ | |||||||||||
| 462 | $(2) | Diaz,Yandy | 50 | TAM | F | AV | * | – | INJ | e | Rg | ||||||||
| 82 | $15 | Suarez,Eugenio | 5 | CIN | F | PW | * | Rg | – | ||||||||||
| 114 | $11 | Chapman,Matt | 5 | OAK | F | PW | – | INJ | |||||||||||
| 194 | $6 | Donaldson,Josh | 5 | MIN | F | PW | * | – | inj- | ||||||||||
| 217 | $5 | Riley,Austin | 5 | ATL | F | PW | – | e | |||||||||||
| 104 | $12 | Bohm,Alec | 53 | PHI | F | a | – | EX | Rg | ||||||||||
| 218 | $5 | Davis,J.D. | 507o | NYM | F | a | – | e | |||||||||||
| 427 | $(2) | Franco,Maikel | 50 | FAA | M | a | – | ||||||||||||
| 265 | $3 | Seager,Kyle | 5 | SEA | F | p | – | ||||||||||||
| 426 | $(2) | Longoria,Evan | 5 | SF | F | p | – | ||||||||||||
| 559 | $(4) | Torkelson,Spencer | 0 | DET | P | p | – | EX | |||||||||||
| 312 | $2 | Wendle,Joe | 546 | TAM | M | s | a | -P | |||||||||||
| 220 | $5 | Anderson,Brian | 5 | MIA | F | – | Rg | ||||||||||||
| 498 | $(3) | Gonzalez,Marwin | 543o9 | MIN | M | Rg | – | ||||||||||||
| 511 | $(3) | Bote,David | 54 | CHC | P | * | Rg | – | e | ||||||||||
| 506 | $(3) | Tsutsugo,Yoshitom | 0o75 | TAM | F | PW | * | Rg | -A | EX | |||||||||
| 568 | $(4) | Paredes,Isaac | 5 | DET | P | a | -P | EX | |||||||||||
| 751 | $(7) | Machin,Vimael | 5 | OAK | P | a | * | Rg | -P | EX | |||||||||
| 296 | $2 | Kiner-Falefa,Isiah | 56 | TEX | F | s | -P | e | |||||||||||
| 690 | $(6) | Camargo,Johan | 45 | ATL | P | Rg | – | ||||||||||||
| 720 | $(7) | Kemp,Anthony | 4 | OAK | P | – | e | ||||||||||||
| 500 | $(3) | Odor,Rougned | 4 | TEX | P | PW | Rg | -A | |||||||||||
| 258 | $3 | Berti,Jon | 4o89 | MIA | M | SB | * | -P | EX | Rg | |||||||||
| 369 | $(0) | Hernandez,Cesar | 4 | CLE | F | a | -P | ||||||||||||
| 452 | $(2) | Hoerner,Nico | 46 | CHC | F | a | -P | EX | |||||||||||
| 562 | $(4) | Garcia,Luis | 4 | WAS | M | a | -P | EX | |||||||||||
| 142 | $9 | Villar,Jonathan | 46 | FAA | M | s | -P | ||||||||||||
| 660 | $(6) | Rojas,Josh | 4 | ARI | P | s | -A | EX | |||||||||||
| 696 | $(6) | Lopez,Nicky | 4 | KC | M | Rg | -P | e | |||||||||||
| 745 | $(7) | Guillorme,Luis | 4 | NYM | P | * | -P | EX | Rg | ||||||||||
| 748 | $(7) | Mendick,Danny | 4 | CHW | M | -P | EX | ||||||||||||
| 647 | $(6) | Long,Shed | 4 | SEA | M | Rg | -A | inj- | EX | ||||||||||
| 679 | $(6) | Diaz,Isan | 4 | MIA | M | * | -A | EX |
ASSETS: PT (Playing time), Pw (Power), Sp (Speed), Av (Batting Effectiveness), * (OBP help), Pk (Park help), Rg (Regression help). LIABILITIES: Sk (Skills risk), Inj (Injury), Ex (Inexperience), Nw (New team), Pk (Park hurt), Ag (Age decline), Rg (Regression hurt)
Jose Ramirez (p,s,AV) is pictured above and once again a first-round draft choice. But if you can build experience risk into your roster planning, BABS has pinpointed KeBryan Hayes (p,s,AV|EX) with comparable abilities, and this scarce triple-asset skill set can be acquired nine rounds later.
Justin Turner (PW,AV) is once again being overlooked by drafters, likely due to his age and his uncertain landing spot for the upcoming season. BABS places Turner in the same asset group has Anthony Rendon but his cost is beyond pick 200. Turner’s lowest batting average over the last four years is .290 and his hard contact numbers from a year ago were his highest on record.
Recency bias from the 2020 shortened season has caused the market to push Manny Machado (p,AV) into the second round for this year. Conversely, the other (p,AV) asset group members have seen their ADPs fall, based on 2020 numbers that were not as stellar. BABS points out that instead of Machado, you can wait two rounds to grab a player like Rafael Devers (p,AV), who in 2019 put up this incredible line…32/115/.311 in over 700 plate appearances.
BABS places Tommy Edman (s,a) and Yoan Moncada (p,s) in double-asset classes ranked very close to one another. Market prices, however, show a wider range. Also close, BABS tells us that we can ignore Kris Bryant (p,a) at his price and look instead to Eduardo Escobar (p,a), who the market is discounting beyond the 20th round, based on his Covid-impacted season a year ago. Escobar’s skills and his 2019 numbers suggest that he may have attractive profit potential.
The (AV) group includes Giovanny Urshela (AV|INJ) and Yandy Diaz (AV|INJ,e). While BABS sees these players as the same, the market has downgraded Diaz to an end game selection. Keep Diaz on your reserve round cheat sheet.
Four 3Bmen with significant power skills are grouped together in the (PW) class. The market bifurcates this quartet, valuing Eugenio Suarez (PW) and Matt Chapman (PW|INJ) as top 6-7 round players while pushing down Josh Donaldson (PW|inj-) and Austin Riley (PW|e) to the 14-15 round range. No need to overpay for analogous power skills.
Highly touted prospect Alec Bohm (a|EX) is receiving a lot of love so far in drafts, coming off his debut season where he batted .338. BABS thinks his batting effectiveness skills are not as strong as those numbers, and regression is likely. Rather than overspending on Bohm, J.D. Davis (a|e) has a similar skill and risk profile and can be acquired nearly 10 rounds later.
Kyle Seager (p) or Evan Longoria (p) are being pushed late in the draft. Interesting fact: Seager has outproduced Kris Bryant in HRs and RBIs over the past four seasons.
There are a few multi-position players to keep in mind who are 3B eligible and possess extreme skills but are listed within other positional reports. Both DJ LeMahieu (A+) and Jeff McNeil (A+) are rated with the rare A+ extreme batting effectiveness skill, a rating that is not bestowed upon others at 3B. For extreme power, Max Muncy (P+) may also be an attractive candidate to fill your hot corner spot, as none of the above listed full- or mid-time 3Bmen carry a P+ designation.
When it comes to playing time, BABS has taught us that if a player demonstrates the skills, there will often be an injury or positional adjustment that will open a roster spot. Every year we see such examples, KeBryan Hayes was one at third base in 2020. For 2021, two part-timers with exceptionally attractive skill sets that should not be overlooked. Edwin Rios (P+|EX) of the Dodgers got his first cup of coffee last year and he showed off his power skills, which BABS rates as extreme. The Indians top-rated prospect Nolan Jones (PW,SB|EX) brings an enticing power/speed set. The Tribe outfield ranked dead last in OPS a year ago, perhaps bring credence to recent reports that Jones has been taking outfield reps.
The asset group rankings also helps us avoid players with batting skills liabilities who likely will do more harm than good to your fantasy teams. If you are looking for a Gold-glover, Isiah Kiner-Falefa (s,|-P,e) might be a good pick, however, for fantasy production, BABS says Avoid. Similar cautions are placed on other 3Bmen such as Jake Lamb (p|-A), Carter Kieboom (|-P,EX) and Travis Shaw (|-A). That trio didn’t merit being included in the chart above. Heed the message there.
NOTES: The chart above may vary slightly from the latest database update which was run after this analysis was written. To engage with other readers on this topic, head over to the Reader Forums. If you have a question that would be best answered by one of our experts and benefit everyone, submit it on our Contact Page and put MAILBAG in the Subject Line.