2021 Starting Pitchers

(Photo by Leslie Plaza Johnson/Icon Sportswire)

by Doug Gruber

Oh how the starting pitching landscape has changed! It seems like yesterday when we could construct our teams by taking one, maybe two, starting pitchers in the first 10 rounds while accumulating offense, knowing we could still find enough full-time starters in the later rounds to roster six or seven on your team. Not anymore.

In 2019, there were only 37 starting pitchers that BABS forecasted as full-timers. This year that number is down almost 50 percent to 19. To make it more challenging, BABS reveals only 16 come with assets that may help your team. In a standard league that’s barely one quality pitcher per team who can be expected to throw a full-season’s worth of innings.

No wonder quality starters have been pushed up the draft board. For 2021 early drafts, 20 SPs are being snatched within the first 60 picks. The average team has at least three starting pitchers by the end of round 10.

Let’s look closer at the BABS ratings for starting pitchers who will potentially provide positive value:

ADP R$ PITCHER Pos Tm PT Er K Sv * Pk Rg Sk- Inj Ex Nw Ag Pk Rg
7 $39 deGrom,Jacob SP NYM F E+ K+              
9 $36 Bieber,Shane SP CLE F E+ KK             Rg-
6 $40 Cole,Gerrit SP NYY F ER K+              
30 $24 Scherzer,Max SP WAS F ER K+     inj-       Ag  
49 $20 Snell,Blake SP SD M ER K+     INJ   Nw    
52 $19 Glasnow,Tyler SP TAM M ER K+   Rg+          
243 $4 Sale,Chris SP BOS P ER K+     INJ        
19 $29 Giolito,Lucas SP CHW F e K+              
60 $18 Burnes,Corbin SP MIL M e K+     INJ e     Rg-
77 $15 Lamet,Dinelson SP SD M e K+     inj- e     Rg-
16 $31 Bauer,Trevor SP LA F ER KK         Nw   Rg-
18 $29 Darvish,Yu SP SD M ER KK         Nw   Rg-
20 $28 Buehler,Walker SP LA M ER KK              
23 $27 Nola,Aaron SP PHI F ER KK              
28 $25 Castillo,Luis SP CIN F ER KK              
34 $23 Kershaw,Clayton SP LA M ER KK             Rg-
35 $23 Woodruff,Brandon SP MIL M ER KK     INJ e      
47 $20 Maeda,Kenta SP MIN M ER KK              
69 $16 Carrasco,Carlos SP NYM M ER KK Pk+       Nw    
72 $16 Strasburg,Stephen SP WAS M ER KK   Rg+ INJ        
75 $15 Ryu,Hyun-Jin SP TOR F ER k     inj-        
92 $13 Valdez,Framber SP HOU M ER k       e      
31 $24 Flaherty,Jack SP STL F e KK   Rg+          
40 $22 Gallen,Zac SP ARI F e KK       e      
65 $17 Gray,Sonny SP CIN F e KK              
96 $13 Anderson,Ian SP ATL M e KK       EX     Rg-
123 $11 McCullers,Lance SP HOU M e KK     INJ        
128 $10 Morton,Charlie SP ATL M e KK         Nw   Ag  
133 $10 Gausman,Kevin SP SF M e KK              
136 $10 Musgrove,Joe SP SD M e KK         Nw    
145 $9 Corbin,Patrick SP WAS F e KK              
235 $4 Ohtani,Shohei SP LAA P e KK     INJ EX     Rg-
235 $4 Ohtani,Shohei SP LAA P e KK     INJ EX     Rg-
280 $3 Kopech,Michael SP CHW P e KK     INJ EX      
329 $1 Syndergaard,Noah SP NYM P e KK     INJ        
56 $18 Lynn,Lance SP CHW F e k         Nw    
62 $17 Plesac,Zach SP CLE M e k       e     Rg-
63 $17 Fried,Max SP ATL M e k       e     Rg-
87 $14 Berrios,Jose SP MIN M e k              
92 $13 Wheeler,Zack SP PHI F e k              
101 $13 Luzardo,Jesus SP OAK M e k       EX      
110 $12 Paddack,Chris SP SD M e k   Rg+   e      
111 $12 Greinke,Zack SP HOU M e k             Ag  
124 $11 Lopez,Pablo SP MIA M e k       e      
130 $10 Sanchez,Sixto SP MIA M e k       EX      
171 $7 Marquez,German SP COL M e k              
203 $6 Gonsolin,Tony SP LA P e k       EX     Rg-
205 $6 Eflin,Zach SP PHI M e k              
227 $5 Kluber,Corey SP NYY M e k     INJ        
239 $4 Eovaldi,Nathan SP BOS M e k   Rg+ inj-        
209 $5 Heaney,Andrew SP LAA M KK              
222 $5 Smyly,Drew SP ATL M KK     INJ   Nw    
258 $3 Paxton,James SP FAA P KK   Rg+ INJ        
296 $2 Skubal,Tarik SP DET M KK       EX      
314 $1 German,Domingo SP NYY P KK       e      
315 $1 Garcia,Deivi SP NYY M KK       EX      
550 $(4) Archer,Chris SP TAM M KK     INJ   Nw    
103 $12 Bundy,Dylan SP LAA M k              
113 $11 Urias,Julio SP LA M k       e     Rg-
155 $8 Montas,Frankie SP OAK M k   Rg+   e      
174 $7 Mahle,Tyler SP CIN M k              
177 $7 Price,David SP LA M k     inj-        
185 $7 McKenzie,Triston SP CLE M k       EX      
215 $5 Means,John SP BAL M k       e      
221 $5 Montgomery,Jordan SP NYY M k   Rg+ INJ e      
221 $5 Urquidy,Jose SP HOU M k       EX     Rg-
231 $4 Pineda,Michael SP MIN M k     INJ       Rg-
235 $4 Rodriguez,Eduardo SP BOS M k     INJ        
249 $4 Hernandez,Elieser SP MIA P k       e      
287 $2 Dunning,Dane SP TEX M k       EX Nw    
301 $2 Odorizzi,Jake SP MIN M k   Rg+ INJ        
311 $2 Canning,Griffin SP LAA M k       EX      
334 $1 Kikuchi,Yusei SP SEA M k   Rg+   e      
351 $0 Lindblom,Josh SP MIL M k              
356 $0 Alzolay,Adbert SP CHC M k       EX     Rg-
390 $(1) Howard,Spencer SP PHI P k   Rg+   EX      
393 $(1) Houck,Tanner SP BOS P k       EX     Rg-
410 $(1) Puk,A.J. SP OAK P k     INJ EX      
423 $(1) Weaver,Luke SP ARI M k   Rg+ inj-        
429 $(2) Martinez,Carlos SP STL M k   Rg+ INJ        
429 $(2) Richards,Garrett SP BOS M k     INJ   Nw    
475 $(3) Hill,Rich SP FAA P k     INJ       Ag Rg-
517 $(3) Gray,Jonathan SP COL P k   Rg+          
554 $(4) Wood,Alex SP SF P k   Rg+ INJ   Nw    
606 $(5) Honeywell,Brent SP TAM P k     INJ EX      
674 $(6) Chatwood,Tyler SP TOR P k   Rg+ inj-   Nw    
693 $(6) Rodon,Carlos SP CHW P k   Rg+ INJ        
87 $14 Hendricks,Kyle SP CHC F e              
162 $8 May,Dustin SP LA P e       EX     Rg-
175 $7 Soroka,Michael SP ATL P e     INJ e     Rg-
229 $5 Taillon,Jameson SP NYY M e     INJ   Nw Pk  
246 $4 Manaea,Sean SP OAK M e     INJ        
342 $1 Ray,Robbie SP TOR M K+     -E          
318 $1 Boyd,Matt SP DET M KK   Rg+ -E inj-        
324 $1 Smith,Caleb SP ARI M KK     -E INJ e     Rg-

ASSETS: PT (Playing time), Er (Pitching Effectiveness), K (Strikeouts), Sv (Saves potential), Pk (Park help), Rg (Regression help). LIABILITIES: Sk (Skills risk), Inj (Injury), Ex (Inexperience), Nw (New team), Pk (Park hurt), Ag (Age decline), Rg (Regression hurt)

For the pitchers going in the first four rounds, it becomes a personal preference as to which highly skilled ace you want to own. In many cases the skill differences are negligible. Any difference likely lies on the liability side. Last year for example, a selection of Justin Verlander or Mike Clevenger, who BABS noted as containing major injury risk, cost their owners greatly.

Looking closer at pitchers being selected early, BABS places Tyler Glasnow (ER,K+, pictured) alongside stars Gerrit Cole (ER,K+) and Max Scherzer (ER,K+|inj-), but he can be acquired in the 4th round. Glasnow further increased his K-BB% to 29% last year, and BABS thinks he deserved better on his 2020 ratios.

Kenta Maeda (ER,KK) is coming off a remarkable shortened season, where he posted a 2.70/0.75 in 11 starts, along with a 32% K rate. Yet he is available two full rounds after several of his classmates who provide similar skills.

Moving to pitchers obtainable in rounds 5-10, BABS points to a few whose skills and lack of risks make for attractive targets. Carlos Carrasco (ER,KK) is discounted 50 picks versus others in his asset group despite coming off a 2020 season where he didn’t miss a start and posted a sub 3.00 ERA along with a 29 percent K rate. He gets an extra boost this year from his move to a more pitcher friendly park. Sonny Gray (e,KK) is projected as full time and without liabilities, yet is being selected more than two rounds after group companions Jack Flaherty and Zac Gallen. Even more heavily discounted based on recency bias is Patrick Corbin. One of the few full-time starters with dual assets, BABS thinks Corbin could be a steal in the 10th round.

Looking at the mid-time (e,KK) pitchers, Ian Anderson, despite having logged only 32 innings, is being drafted several rounds ahead of comparable and less risky arms such as Lance McCullers who is now two years removed from his TJS, Charlie Morton, Kevin Gausman and Joe Musgrove. Any of these four could deliver value well above their ADP price tag.

Lance Lynn (e,k) and Zack Wheeler are similarly skilled and projected for full-time innings, however Wheeler can be obtained three rounds later. Among the mid-time pitchers in this group, Zack Greinke continues to fall in the eyes of the market. BABS says his skills and playing time are equivalent to several less proven hurlers being drafted much earlier, such as Zach Plesac and Max Fried.

After Round 10, scanning the BABS asset groups reveal 27 starters who offer positive assets, including five with assets in both starting pitcher categories. Almost all carry some liabilities, so concentrate on those with a clean slate such as German Marquez (e,k), Zach Eflin (e,k) and Andrew Heaney (KK). If you have the room to take on some risk at this point, dual asset pitchers such as Nathan Eovaldi (e,k|inj-) and veteran Corey Kluber (e,k|INJ) should be on your wish lists near Round 15.

As we enter the reserve rounds, a few pitchers with strikeout skills who are also candidates for positive regression are generally obtainable. Luke Weaver (k|inj-), Yusei Kikuchi (k|e) and Carlos Martinez (k|INJ) all could be sources for late round value.

Speaking of the late rounds, BABS has identified several part-time players who have the skills to be included within some of the highest rated asset groups. BABS has a knack for uncovering these potential treasures. A year ago fantasy owners were handsomely rewarded with a late round selection of pitchers such as Dinelson Lamet and Kevin Gausman who thrived when provided a spot in the rotation.

For this year, Freddy Peralta (e,K+|e), Brent Suter (ER,KK|INJ,e), Trevor Rogers (e,KK|EX) and Daniel Norris (e,k) are speculative arms who BABS pronounces have the skills to flourish as starters if given the opportunity.

NOTES: The chart above may vary slightly from the latest database update which was run after this analysis was written. To engage with other readers on this topic, head over to the Reader Forums. If you have a question that would be best answered by one of our experts and benefit everyone, submit it on our Contact Page and put MAILBAG in the Subject Line.