2021 Shortstops

(Photo by Cliff Welch/Icon Sportswire)

by Doug Gruber

Perfect alignment is rare. For example, the last full solar eclipse occurred in the US in 2017, the prior was 40 years before. Planetary alignment is also uncommon, but in recent months we observed a coming together of Jupiter and Saturn in the sky as one single star.

It is nearly as rare for the fantasy baseball world and BABS to be aligned as measured by the market ADPs and the BABS asset group rankings. Such an infrequent occurrence is taking shape this year at the shortstop position. The first nine shortstops being drafted are the same nine at the top of the BABS shortstop rankings. And if you want to own one of these nine the price is high, as all are being taken in the first three rounds.

Let’s take a closer look at the BABS ratings for the shortstop position:

ADP R$ BATTER Pos Tm PT Pw Sp Av * Pk Rg Sk- Inj Ex Nw Ag Pk Rg
3 $47 Tatis Jr.,Fernando 6 SD F P+ S+ AV       e      
7 $39 Turner,Trea 6 WAS F S+ AV             Rg
11 $34 Story,Trevor 6 COL F PW SB a              
23 $27 Bichette,Bo 6 TOR F p s AV     inj- EX      
35 $23 Seager,Corey 60 LA F PW AV              
24 $27 Mondesi,Adalberto 6 KC F S+              
17 $30 Lindor,Francisco 6 NYM F p s a         Nw Pk  
41 $21 Anderson,Tim 6 CHW F s AV     inj-       Rg
36 $23 Bogaerts,Xander 6 BOS F p AV             Rg
144 $9 Semien,Marcus 6 TOR F s a Pk       Nw    
69 $16 Torres,Gleyber 6 NYY F p a              
128 $10 Correa,Carlos 6 HOU F p a              
72 $16 Baez,Javier 6 CHC F p s   Rg          
219 $5 Taylor,Chris 674 LA F p s              
292 $2 Franco,Wander 0 TAM P AV       EX      
167 $8 Gregorius,Didi 6 PHI F a              
179 $7 Kim,Ha-Seong 0 SD F a       EX      
210 $5 Polanco,Jorge 6 MIN F a              
390 $(1) Ahmed,Nick 6 ARI F a              
458 $(2) Andrus,Elvis 6 OAK F a   Rg INJ   Nw Pk  
463 $(2) Simmons,Andrelton 6 MIN F s AV     -P INJ   Nw    
104 $12 Swanson,Dansby 6 ATL F p             Rg
305 $2 Rosario,Amed 6 CLE M SB a Pk   -P     Nw    
664 $(6) Garcia,Leury 6 CHW P s a     -P INJ        
420 $(1) Goodrum,Niko 64 DET F p s     -A inj-        
221 $5 Fletcher,David 645 LAA F AV     -P         Rg
393 $(1) Rojas,Miguel 6 MIA F AV     -P inj-        
424 $(1) Iglesias,Jose 60 LAA F AV     -P     Nw   Rg
326 $1 Adames,Willy 6 TAM F             Rg
509 $(3) Arcia,Orlando 6 MIL F              
530 $(4) Valaika,Pat 643 BAL P       e     Rg
544 $(4) Crawford,Brandon 6 SF F              
569 $(4) Galvis,Freddy 64 BAL F         Nw    
744 $(7) Farmer,Kyle 64 CIN M       EX Nw    
183 $7 Gimenez,Andres 645 CLE F SB Pk   -P   EX Nw    
524 $(4) Newman,Kevin 64 PIT F a     -P   e      
239 $4 Castro,Willi 65 DET F s     -P   EX     Rg
436 $(2) Crawford,J.P. 6 SEA F s     -P   e      
221 $5 DeJong,Paul 6 STL F p     -A         Rg

ASSETS: PT (Playing time), Pw (Power), Sp (Speed), Av (Batting Effectiveness), * (OBP help), Pk (Park help), Rg (Regression help). LIABILITIES: Sk (Skills risk), Inj (Injury), Ex (Inexperience), Nw (New team), Pk (Park hurt), Ag (Age decline), Rg (Regression hurt)

If you have been anywhere near BABS last year or this year, then you know that she has a major thing for a 22-year-old Padre phenom. And why not? Fernando Tatis Jr. (P+,S+,AV|e) is rated as one tick short of a triple extreme rating…five assets in a class by himself, with only a small blemish in the experience column. For the rest of the top nine, three others bring triple-asset skills sets (like Bo Bichette, pictured above). The rest score a pair of skills including at least one significant asset, while also being free from any major liabilities.

Seven of the nine bring speed assets including three (Tatis, Trea Turner (S+,AV) and Adalberto Mondesi (S+)) with precious extreme speed, eight of nine carry batting effectiveness skills and six project to be power sources. All are projected for full time at bats. BABS doesn’t hand out many compliments to the general marketplace, but in this case the skill sets and the prices being paid for these shortstops line up quite nice.

If you elect to bypass a shortstop in the first three rounds, BABS offers a few suggestions to help you fill the position at a reasonable price. Both Gleyber Torres (p,a) and Javier Baez (p,s) have ADPs in the 5th round. BABS has identified other alternatives who can be acquired at a substantial discount. Carlos Correa (p,a) is in the same asset class as Torres and can be secured at least 50 picks later. Marcus Semien (s,a), now of the Blue Jays, provides a combination of speed and batting average and is available in round 10. The biggest profit opportunity lies with Chris Taylor (p,s), who provides moderate power and speed, had a strong season in 2020, and offers valuable position flexibility.

Looking at the full-time shortstops in the single asset groups, BABS identifies Nick Ahmed (a) as being equivalent to Didi Gregorius (a) and Jorge Polanco (a), but the market is ignoring Ahmed until the reserve rounds. In the (p) class, Dansby Swanson and Paul DeJong have similar power profiles, but DeJong’s batting average risk gives drafters  an eight-round markdown.

The remainder of the full-time shortstops are either void of assets or carry a skills liability that negates the value they may bring in other categories. Cleveland acquired both Ahmed Rosario (SB,a|-P) and Andres Gimenez (SB|-P,EX) in the trade that sent Francisco Lindor to the Mets. Both generate significant speed, but are drags on the important power game. Others such as David Fletcher,  Miguel Rojas and Jose Iglesias (AV|-P) offer batting effectiveness competencies, but are also power-deficient.

BABS has also identified two shortstop prospects currently projected for not much playing time but who have the requisite skills to compete for a roster spot. 19-year-old Wander Franco (AV|EX) could have the batting abilities to overcome Tampa Bay incumbent Willie Adames, who BABS rates as lacking positive assets. In Texas, Anderson Tejeda (p,SB|EX) flashes an intriguing power/speed blend for a team in rebuilding mode. The Rangers just dealt Elvis Andrus to the A’s, perhaps providing Tejada an opportunity for playing time, and providing you with a late round, highly skilled, speculative target.

NOTES: The chart above may vary slightly from the latest database update which was run after this analysis was written. To engage with other readers on this topic, head over to the Reader Forums. If you have a question that would be best answered by one of our experts and benefit everyone, submit it on our Contact Page and put MAILBAG in the Subject Line.