2021 Relief Pitchers

(Photo by Cody Glenn/Icon Sportswire)

by Pat Cloghessy

“Life has become immeasurably better since I have been forced to stop taking it seriously.” — Hunter S. Thompson, on drafting closers.

Okay, maybe not.

Even if we are able to keep up with the names in and out of the revolving door, forecasting saves is sinking into “fool’s errand” territory.. Maybe the best we can do is adhere to the old adage, “draft skills, not roles.” 

BABS has six relief pitchers projected to be full-time closers. SIX! Out of 32 teams. 

Buy the ticket, take the ride. Fear and Loathing in the Bullpen! 

Here are the BABS ratings for relief pitchers who will potentially provide positive value to your team:

ADP R$ PITCHER Pos Tm PT Er K Sv * Pk Rg Sk- Inj Ex Nw Ag Pk Rg
59 $18 Hader,Josh rp MIL E+ K+ SV              
66 $17 Hendriks,Liam rp CHW E+ K+ SV         Nw Pk  
79 $15 Chapman,Aroldis rp NYY E+ K+ SV              
108 $12 Karinchak,James rp CLE E+ K+ SV       EX      
82 $15 Diaz,Edwin rp NYM E+ K+ sv-              
125 $10 Pressly,Ryan rp HOU E+ K+ sv-     inj-        
162 $8 Anderson,Nick rp TAM E+ K+ sv-       e     Rg-
166 $8 Williams,Devin rp MIL E+ K+       EX     Rg-
520 $(3) May,Trevor rp NYM E+ K+ Pk Rg+     Nw    
740 $(7) Betances,Dellin rp NYM E+ K+     INJ        
137 $10 Hand,Brad rp WAS ER K+ SV         Nw   Rg-
96 $13 Iglesias,Raisel rp LAA ER K+ sv-         Nw    
196 $6 Yates,Kirby rp TOR ER K+ sv-   Rg+ INJ   Nw Pk  
290 $2 Gallegos,Giovanny rp STL ER K+ sv-       e      
382 $(0) Garrett,Amir rp CIN ER K+ sv-             Rg-
438 $(2) Bummer,Aaron rp CHW E+ KK     inj- e     Rg-
552 $(4) Osuna,Roberto rp FAN E+ KK     INJ       Rg-
137 $10 Jansen,Kenley rp LA e K+ SV              
176 $7 Rosenthal,Trevor rp FAN e K+ sv-     inj-       Rg-
202 $6 Kimbrel,Craig rp CHC e K+ sv-   Rg+          
229 $5 Barnes,Matt rp BOS e K+ sv-              
252 $4 Smith,Will rp ATL e K+ sv-             Rg-
309 $2 Neris,Hector rp PHI e K+ sv-              
253 $4 Pomeranz,Drew rp SD ER K+             Rg-
307 $2 Romano,Jordan rp TOR ER K+     inj- EX     Rg-
363 $0 Rainey,Tanner rp WAS ER K+       e     Rg-
480 $(3) Fairbanks,Peter rp TAM ER K+       EX      
593 $(5) Green,Chad rp NYY ER K+              
139 $9 Rogers,Taylor rp MIN ER KK sv-   Rg+          
267 $3 Hicks,Jordan rp STL ER KK sv-     INJ        
331 $1 Castillo,Diego rp TAM ER KK sv-       e     Rg-
371 $(0) Diekman,Jake rp OAK e K+             Rg-
683 $(6) Munoz,Andres rp SEA e K+     INJ EX      
195 $6 Montero,Rafael rp SEA e KK sv-       e Nw    
219 $5 Rodriguez,Richard rp PIT e KK sv-              
318 $1 Holland,Greg rp KC e KK sv-             Rg-
392 $(1) Sims,Lucas rp CIN e KK sv-       EX     Rg-
661 $(6) Ottavino,Adam rp BOS e KK sv-   Rg+     Nw    
383 $(0) Lugo,Seth rp NYM ER KK   Rg+          
428 $(2) Martin,Christopher rp ATL ER KK              
488 $(3) Duffey,Tyler rp MIN ER KK             Rg-
401 $(1) Leclerc,Jose rp TEX K+ sv-     INJ        
393 $(1) Britton,Zack rp NYY ER k             Rg-
486 $(3) Clase,Emmanuel rp CLE ER k       EX      
485 $(3) Pagan,Emilio rp SD e KK              
491 $(3) Dolis,Rafael rp TOR e KK       EX     Rg-
547 $(4) Wendelken,J.B. rp OAK e KK       e     Rg-
551 $(4) Barlow,Scott rp KC e KK       e      
605 $(5) Minter,A.J. rp ATL e KK       e     Rg-
608 $(5) Knebel,Corey rp LA e KK     INJ   Nw    
629 $(5) Miller,Andrew rp FAN e KK             Ag Rg-
631 $(5) Scott,Tanner rp BAL e KK       e     Rg-
648 $(6) Alvarado,Jose rp PHI e KK   Rg+   e Nw Pk  
666 $(6) Kela,Keone rp PIT e KK     INJ        
698 $(6) Soria,Joakim rp ARI KK sv-         Nw   Ag Rg-
722 $(7) Doolittle,Sean rp CIN KK sv-     inj-        
336 $1 Bard,Daniel rp COL k sv-             Ag  
744 $(7) Hirano,Yoshihisa rp SEA k sv-   Rg+ INJ e     Ag  
177 $7 Colome,Alex rp MIN e sv-         Nw    
275 $3 Crichton,Stefan rp ARI e sv-       EX     Rg-
711 $(7) Ramirez,Yohan rp SEA KK sv-     -E   EX     Rg-
402 $(1) Harvey,Hunter rp BAL sv-     inj- EX      
315 $1 Melancon,Mark rp ATL e sv-     -K         Ag Rg-
404 $(1) Kintzler,Brandon rp MIA sv-     -K         Ag Rg-

ASSETS: PT (Playing time), Er (Pitching Effectiveness), K (Strikeouts), Sv (Saves potential), Pk (Park help), Rg (Regression help). LIABILITIES: Sk (Skills risk), Inj (Injury), Ex (Inexperience), Nw (New team), Pk (Park hurt), Ag (Age decline), Rg (Regression hurt)

Once the big three — Josh Hader, Liam Hendriks (pictured), Aroldis Chapman — are off the board, the next tier is well represented by the (E+,K+,sv-) asset group. This cohort has the tip-top of bullpen arms that aren’t projected by BABS to be full-time closers. Edwin Diaz’ 82 ADP is high praise. James Karinchak (ADP 108) has the requisite assets to close full-time. Will he take the reins? Ditto Ryan Pressly. Nick Anderson rounds out the set. He is marooned in Tampa Bay, and their usage style. Still, extreme strikeout and ERA skills are hard to come by, and at pick 162 seems a fairly safe (ducks) bet for potential saves.

There are additional names with extreme asset profiles (E+,K+), though without BABS-projected save opportunities. Sitting behind Hader is not ideal, but if we can take anything from 2020 it’s that Devin Williams is really good. He has the stuff once again to provide stand-alone value. Trevor May and Dellin Betances are going undrafted in many leagues, and would be next in line in what appears to be a loaded Mets bullpen. 

Has Joe Maddon found his guy in the (ER,K+,sv-) section? Raisel Iglesias arrives in Los Angeles with a decent floor, and maybe more. Similarly, Kirby Yates moves to the Blue Jays and if he proves healthy, could zoom past the (sv-) projection. Giovanny Gallegos and Amir Garrett are the best equipped to handle the job for their respective teams, but (virtually every RP from here on in comes with caveats) they need to win the job. That’s if there is a “regular closer” job to be won any longer. The upshot: besides Iglesias, the other three can be had after (or well after) pick 200. 

Also bunched around ADP 200 is the (e,K+,sv-) section. And why not? The skills are still solid, and the roles have palatable floors. Craig Kimbrel and Matt Barnes are probably odds-on favorites to close for two teams in transition. If they perform well, bully on whoever drafts them. What follows is the danger of getting moved at the trade deadline. Approaching pick 300 it’s entirely reasonable (advisable?) to take a shot on Will Smith or Hector Neris’ assets. As of this writing, Trevor Rosenthal has yet to find a home. The closer carousel of 2021 could yet see more shake up depending on where he lands. 

A couple of pops late in the draft with BABSy assets (ER,KK,sv-) are Jordan Hicks (ADP 267) and Diego Castillo (ADP 331). Next is Rafael Montero and Richard Rodriguez territory. We’ve skipped over dozens of relief pitchers to get to the 10 at the bottom of the list. All have shots at saves, some more significant than others. Skills may be lacking and half are geezers, but if the goal is saves, then they all have value. Just hold your nose and pray.

Good luck out there. 

NOTES: The chart above may vary slightly from the latest database update which was run after this analysis was written. To engage with other readers on this topic, head over to the Reader Forums. If you have a question that would be best answered by one of our experts and benefit everyone, submit it on our Contact Page and put MAILBAG in the Subject Line.