2021 Points League Strategy

by Pat Cloghessy

Points leagues’ focus on aggregate totals as opposed to category strengths may require a slight shift when it comes to constructing a roster. Speed might be less of a premium asset in some leagues, or it may not. It depends entirely on league-specific scoring systems. 

But the bottom line is — total points are it. Nothing else matters. The process we use to arrive at the point totals does, however, matter. Quite a bit.

One tried and true method for success is using league history to get an idea of what it takes to make the playoffs. Winning the title is the goal, but many points-based leagues are head-to-head setups with a playoff at the end of the regular season. The tournament portion can be a crapshoot, depending on how it is formatted. So first, we focus on getting into the post-season. 

Archived standings or league history will help determine the approximate or average point total needed to put your team in playoff contention. From there (don’t tell BABS), find your favorite fantasy point projection model, and use those player projections when constructing your roster. We must use something as a baseline. 

The idea is, once complete, the point totals for the starting lineup will equal or exceed the noted average team total necessary to make the playoffs. 

Attrition and performance will chip away at projected totals. Conversely, some will outdo expected point targets. This is where it is important to embrace imprecision. Don’t be a slave to projections, rather, allow for a wide range of outcomes. Don’t just tally the projected point totals, plan for error in either direction. Use BABS to assist with this.

Stronger assets might warrant a projection bump; weaker assets or significant liabilities could justify a projected point reduction. Or go strictly conservative with your point estimates. Either way, as long as the roster sheet is filled with BABS assets, the potential to hit the point target remains in play. 

If this method is employed consistently throughout the draft, the team total point projection will be just a number. It will most certainly be wrong, but if the process is sound, and we factor in the wide variance of possible point totals as we construct the roster, we will end up with a final number that, in theory, takes all assets and liabilities into account. If we can still surpass the threshold needed to contend for the playoffs with all of this baked in (we can), we are well-equipped to make a run for the title. 

This may seem elementary (it is). But a wise man once stated, as a rule for life, “nobody ever does anything”. This, of course, is hyperbolic, but it resonates. If you do something, even the most rudimentary of league specific analysis, you are likely a step ahead. 

Minding the gap

As part of your familiarization with the player pool, mind the gap in point totals for players at specific positions. Create a tier system based on expected points. What materializes from this exercise are the players who outperform their positional peers, sometimes by a wide margin.

This season, first base seems to be a position where the gap could come into play. Freddie Freeman’s assets and keen eye at the plate creates a disparity between him and the rest of his position mates. One projection system has Freeman fifty points ahead of Cody Bellinger (pictured), who is second. Further, Freeman projects to be one hundred points clear of the third highest expected point total. The gap increases thereafter. 

Maybe it’s a 20-week regular season in a H2H style points league. A 100-point difference leads to five points per week in the black. Which doesn’t sound like much, but if that can net one win over the course of the season, it will have been worth it. If we can leverage the gap a few times (or more) during roster construction while holding serve the rest of the time, the potential for a weekly advantage increases. This will be especially important come playoff time.

Starting pitchers are where the gap may be most important, especially in the current climate. Historically, many (if not most) points leagues lean towards being dominated by starting pitching. As the number of SP who clear 180 IP continues its downward trend, rostering workhorses and aces increases in importance. A great pitcher on a two-start week can cover up a lot of warts. Two great pitchers (or three!) on a roster have the potential to run roughshod over the competition. So, target the full-timers. When appropriate, embrace the risk of ace mid-timers. And later in the draft, go for skills, not roles. 

An overriding theme heading into 2021 is uncertainty. Steering a starting pitcher’s workload this season has occasioned one MLB manager to wit, “who the hell knows” how it’s going to go. Still, targeting an ace early would be prudent. After the skilled full-timers are gone, however, it’s anyone’s guess as to how things will play out. So when rostering mid- and part-timers, it bears repeating: target skills. 

Using BABS 

While BABS isn’t in the business of projecting point totals (or any other statistic), she can still be helpful in points leagues. Every league awards offensive points for hits. Some award additional points for extra base hits, some award for walks. 

For scoring setups that award additional points for extra base hits, the (Pw) asset column is the strongest indicator of XBH ability. To mine for a bat that might be more inclined to triples, a player with (Pw) and (Sp) assets would make the strongest case.

Batting effectiveness is usually a good indicator of a solid (at minimum) points league player. Points are awarded for hits, batting effectiveness is a good indicator of batting average, which means a higher percentage of hits, which leads to the accrual of more points. Also this:

The Batting Effectiveness rating measures each batter’s ability to make contact – which includes his batting eye – and how hard he makes contact. Yes, we can use this as a proxy for batting average, but it also affects just about every other offensive statistic.

For leagues that award walks, we stay in the batting effectiveness column. Players with an (*) are those with a historical walk rate of 10 percent or greater. In this type of setup, these batters should get a ratings bump.

As always, keep an eye on the liabilities section, specifically the skill liabilities. Batters with (-A) are the batting average drags, which in a points league would indicate fewer hits, which of course means fewer points. In leagues that penalize for strikeouts, this could also be a hindrance, as contact rate does play into the batting effectiveness asset. The (-P) might be less concerning as players with this liability can make up for it in other areas. 

For pitchers, BABS assets are a great barometer of success in points leagues. Pitching effectiveness indexes both ERA and (indirectly) WHIP.  Many points leagues award for ERA in some way, usually by awarding points per inning pitched and penalizing for earned runs allowed. The same goes for WHIP, as negative points may be issued for hits or walks allowed. 

All leagues give points for strikeouts, so targeting pitchers with any sort of K asset is the obvious play. 

For relief pitchers, BABS provides a projection for the range of saves a pitcher might accumulate. Closers are historically fluid, so after the consensus saves guys are off the board, BABS can help speculate on the highest skilled relievers. Target extreme and high level skills with the hope that roles will materialize.