2021 Playing time and the inefficient marketplace

There is a scout for the Tampa Bay Rays who used to be one of the top fantasy baseball players in the country. Jason Grey was a multi-time winner in both Tout Wars and LABR in the 2000s, and a writer for ESPN before landing the Rays job.

What was his winning secret?

It was simple. Jason stockpiled playing time.

While me and others focused on prospecting for skills, Jason was grabbing up any breathing human who was in line to be on the field. Even those with middling skills were good targets because they would always contribute to runs and RBIs, and strikeouts for pitchers. And, if they had any value in a ratio metric, their at-bats and innings would help dig a deeper stake into those categories.

Remember Placido Polanco? He had a 16-year career with a lifetime batting average of .297, but notched more than 10 HRs only three times and more than 10 SBs only twice. Still, he could be counted on for at least 450 AB in 11 of those 16 seasons; from 2007-2010, he averaged 585 AB per year.

Polanco rarely cracked $10 on Draft Day – his counting stats were too unsexy – but he routinely earned $15-$20. Jason always had players like that in his back pocket.

Similar to my experience with the LIMA Plan in 1998, once others catch on to what you’re doing, the imitators emerge quickly. What was once a competitive edge becomes a mainstream tactic.

But innovative ideas have their own life cycles. As new players enter the industry and memories fade, oftentimes these once ground-breaking strategies can find some late life. I’ve been seeing references to the LIMA Plan recently (albeit often defining it incorrectly). And the marketplace seems to be forgetting about the importance of stockpiling playing time.

Admittedly, this may just be a BABS phenomenon. But as you scan the BABS ratings spreadsheet, you’ll find numerous instances where (M)id-timers are being ranked with earlier ADPs than (F)ull-timers possessing the same basic skills set.

Let’s look at a few examples.

First, the (ER,K+) asset group shows how we would expect it to be. Full-timers Gerrit Cole and Max Scherzer are ranked first, followed by mid-timers Blake Snell and Tyler Glasnow, and then (P)art-time innings from Chris Sale. That represents perfect planetary alignment.

However, the (ER,KK) group shows where we can find some potential market inefficiencies. Mid-timers Yu Darvish and Walker Buehler are ranked ahead of full-timers Aaron Nola (pictured) and Luis Castillo. All of these pitchers have comparable skills, according to BABS, and the fact that Nola and Castillo are several ADP ticks lower already offers some profit potential. But the fact that they are also projected for more innings gives them an added advantage.

Admittedly, those pitchers are only separated by a handful of spots in the ADPs, but a deeper dive into the list reveals more notable inefficiencies.

Nine deep in the (e,KK) group is Patrick Corbin. While he is coming off a down short-season, he’s still only 31. Yet his ADP trails mid-timers Ian Anderson, Lance McCullers, Charlie Morton, Kevin Gausman and Joe Musgrove. Perhaps the market is writing off another boring veteran, but he’s ranked behind some other boring vets and a few with possibly misplaced excitement.

The (p,a) group of batters is all over the map. Mid-timer Sean Murphy has an ADP higher than six full-timers, but you can attribute that to inflated catcher pricing. Still, there is so much profit potential in this craziness:

ADP    Player                   PT
162    Josh Bell                 F
195    Christian Walker          M
196    Jared Walsh               F
200    A.J. Pollock              F
205    Randal Grichuk            F
239    Shohei Ohtani             M
270    Rowdy Tellez              M
274    Yasiel Puig               P
297    Bryan Reynolds            F
297    Eduardo Escobar           F
320    Jesus Aguilar             P
330    Alex Dickerson            M
371    Joey Votto                F

We’ll have a full asset group analysis for these (p,a) skills, but all I can say is – Bryan Reynolds! Eduardo Escobar! And those bottom three full-timers all have positive regression indicators.

In the (e,k) group, you’ll find full-timer Zack Wheeler lurking 1-2 rounds later than mid-timers Zach Plesac and Max Fried.

JaCoby Jones is about as boring as they come on a boring team, but he’s slated for full-time ABs in the (p,s) group. He’s 85 slots behind Scott Kingery, a part-timer without a firm role.

As you continue to scan down the rankings, you’ll find many more asset groups with playing time inefficiencies within the ADPs. Those players should be given slightly higher consideration.