2021 Player History Scans – March 10

(Photo by: Juan DeLeon/Icon Sportswire)

The BABS database provides historical scans of each player, going back to 2014. These scans not only chart their statistical output but also how BABS has rated their performance and how the marketplace valued them coming into each season.

This treatment often reveals some underlying trends that the raw statistics fail to discover. These Player History Scans look at some of the most interesting players where BABS might see things a little bit differently from the public narrative.

 

JOSE ABREU
ASSETS LIABILITIES MARKET
Year Team Pos AB HR SB Avg OBP PT Pw Sp Av Pk Rg Sk Inj Ex Nw Pk Ag Rg ADP $$
2014 CHW 3 556 36 3 317 383 F P+ A+
2015 CHW 3 613 30 0 290 347 F PW AV
2016 CHW 3 624 25 0 293 353 F p AV
2017 CHW 3 621 33 3 304 354 F p s AV 61 $18
2018 CHW 3 499 22 2 265 325 F p a 41 $21
2019 CHW 3 634 33 2 284 330 F p AV 85 $14
2020 CHW 3 240 19 0 317 370 F PW A+ 76 $15
PROJ p CHW 3 F p AV Rg 37 $22

The Narrative: Since 2014, Abreu’s owners could take 30 HRs, 100 RBIs and a .290 or better average to the bank. The market has consistently spent a 5th round chip to acquire his reliable production. Abreu took it up a notch in the shortened 2020 season, with his 19/60/.317 output in 60 games earning him AL MVP honors. The recency of 2020 and an improved outlook for the 2021 White Sox has elevated his fantasy price to a third-round selection. The question for BABS…are Abreu’s skills getting better with age?

BABS’ Take: BABS has consistently recognized Abreu’s dual power and batting skills, generally rating his batting effectiveness as significant and his power as moderate. In the smaller sample of a year ago, BABS did recognize an uptick in his skill levels. However, melding 2020 with his most recent full seasons, BABS is relying more on history, meaning we should not presume Abreu to replicate his 2020 pace over a full season. As such, his current price is likely a tad too rich for his expected yield.

TIM ANDERSON
ASSETS LIABILITIES MARKET
Year Team Pos AB HR SB Avg OBP PT Pw Sp Av Pk Rg Sk Inj Ex Nw Pk Ag Rg ADP $$
2016 CHW 6 410 9 10 283 306 M p S+ a
2017 CHW 6 587 17 15 257 276 F S+ EX 160 $8
2018 CHW 6 567 20 26 240 281 F SB 197 $6
2019 CHW 6 498 18 17 335 357 F s A+ 132 $10
2020 CHW 6 208 10 5 322 357 F SB AV inj- Rg 97 $13
PROJ p CHW 6 F s AV inj- Rg 42 $21

The narrative: Anderson has slowly ascended the ranks to fantasy stardom. Early in his career, fantasy managers were hesitant to pounce.  He was held at arm’s length as a speed demon with poor on-base skills. Not an ideal mix. 

Tim produced a 20/20 season in 2018, and his ADP only rose to 132. The inability to take walks continued to hold him back. Then came a 2019 batting title. This helped him slip inside the top 100, finally, in 2020. During the pandemic he produced a carbon copy of his career year. And here we are, Tim Anderson is a third round pick.

BABS take:  The 20-ish HR pop does not register with BABS. Though way back in 2016 she did see something in Tim’s 400 at-bats to warrant a (p), it’s been crickets in the power column ever since. The speed and newfound batting effectiveness are his real calling cards. 

Those two assets can certainly be worthy of a third round selection. In order to earn it, the skills must be top shelf. At this stage, BABS might not be all-in. The once blazing (S+) and (SB) markers are not present in BABS’ estimation heading into 2021. She buys more into the batting effectiveness. If that BA dips to even .300, or (gasp) lower, Anderson’s SB attempts will be reduced. He is still in his prime, so there is reason for optimism. Just beware the floor. It isn’t low by regular standards. It might be low for a 3rd round pick. 

NOLAN ARENADO
ASSETS LIABILITIES MARKET
Year Team Pos AB HR SB Avg OBP PT Pw Sp Av Pk Rg Sk Inj Ex Nw Pk Ag Rg ADP $$
2014 COL 5 432 18 2 287 328 M P+ AV
2015 COL 5 616 42 2 287 323 F P+ AV
2016 COL 5 618 41 2 294 362 F P+ AV
2017 COL 5 606 37 3 309 373 F PW A+ 5 $42
2018 COL 5 590 38 2 297 374 F P+ AV 5 $42
2019 COL 5 588 41 3 315 379 F PW A+ 8 $37
2020 COL 5 182 8 0 253 303 F p 13 $33
PROJ p STL 5 F p a Nw Pk 35 $23

The Narrative: From 2015 to 2019, Arenado averaged 40 home runs, 120 RBIs and hit nearly .300, which made him a mainstay in the first rounds of fantasy drafts. Last year was Arenado’s first down season, affected  by a shoulder injury as well as perhaps the ongoing quarrels with the Rockies front office. Arenado has since been traded to the Cardinals, which for fantasy purposes has pushed his already falling ADP a round or two further, in some cases into the 5th round. Hey BABS, is Arenado now a bargain?

BABS’ Take: For several years, Arenado could be found in some of the highest rated asset groups for both extreme power and batting effectiveness. Recently, however, BABS began to detect some degradation in Arenado’s power metrics. And with his move away from Coors, and into a venue that favors pitchers over hitters, BABS has further downgraded Arenado’s Asset rating to (p,a). Arenado now finds himself grouped with nearly 20 comparable hitters, many of whom can be obtained after pick 200. As such, while his price has never been this low, BABS thinks there are other options that could provide comparable stats.

CODY BELLINGER
ASSETS LIABILITIES MARKET
Year Team Pos AB HR SB Avg OBP PT Pw Sp Av Pk Rg Sk Inj Ex Nw Pk Ag Rg ADP $$
2017 LA o83 480 39 10 267 352 F P+ s a EX 480 ($3)
2018 LA o83 557 25 14 260 343 F P+ SB e 26 $26
2019 LA o83 558 47 15 305 406 F P+ s A+ 44 $21
2020 LA o83 213 12 6 239 333 F PW 4 $44
PROJ p LA o83 F PW s AV inj- 16 $31

The narrative: Bellinger’s relationship with the fantasy baseball community has been rocky. When expectations are high, he has fallen short. This inevitably leads to a pullback in price the following season. Cue Cody taking it out on all of the fantasy touts who wronged him with tepid projections and insulting draft slots.

To be sure, the yo-yo nature of Cody’s career hasn’t resulted in excommunication. He’s still a borderline first rounder (by ADP). And maybe our inability to put him in a box has by some stroke of luck and irony placed him right where he belongs. ADP 16.

BABS’ take: Cody Bellinger has always had big power. Three seasons of elite (P+) skill level confirm this. BABS hasn’t been so sure about his other assets. His speed and batting effectiveness have been in flux since 2017. But the assets are there.

The market plays whack-a-mole with Bellinger’s draft slot/statistical output every year, and BABS senses their frustration. There has been a wide variance in BABS’ tabulations of his skills. Curse him for following a non-linear trajectory! 

The happy ending: Cody Bellinger’s elite asset mix is coming at what could (and probably should) be perceived as a discount. If drafting at the 1-2 turn, he is a most BABSian play. 

MAX FRIED
ASSETS LIABILITIES MARKET
Year Team IP W Sv K ERA WHIP PT Sk K Sv Pk Rg Sk Inj Ex Nw Pk Ag Rg ADP $$
2017 ATL 26 1 0 22 3.81 1.62 e
2018 ATL 33.7 1 0 44 2.94 1.37 ER K+ EX 540 ($4)
2019 ATL 165.7 17 0 173 4.02 1.33 M e k inj- EX 629 ($5)
2020 ATL 56 7 0 50 2.25 1.09 M ER k inj- e 137 $10
PROJ p ATL M e k e Rg 69 $16

The narrative: Fried’s rapid rise from afterthought in 2019 (ADP 629), to top 25 starting pitcher (ADP 69) heading into 2021 is impressive. His encore to the 2019 breakout was a Covid sprint to miniscule rate stats and a solid whiff rate. 

The market was intrigued a year ago at this time. Max then delivered ace-level stats. Now it seems managers are elated, drafting him as a SP2 in 15 team setups. 

BABS’ take: The perception that Fried has leveled-up is understandable. BABS isn’t against that happening. She just hasn’t been convinced it’s a foregone conclusion. Fried’s assets are legitimate. He’s earned every bit of the (e,k), but is that next-level stuff?

BABS slapped those same assets on Fried during the 2019 season, when his ERA and WHIP were good and less than stellar. He gained some luck in 2020, and rode it to a fine “season”. 

Those miniscule rate stats of Covidland occurred in what amounts to (these days) as one third of a season. Even at age 27, Fried is still relatively green (e) on MLB experience. If the pendulum of luck swings back too far (Rg), it could be 2019 all over again. Not bad, but is that SP2 territory?

TEOSCAR HERNANDEZ
ASSETS LIABILITIES MARKET
Year Team Pos AB HR SB Avg OBP PT Pw Sp Av Pk Rg Sk Inj Ex Nw Pk Ag Rg ADP $$
2016 HOU o98 100 4 0 230 304 PW -A
2017 TOR o98 88 8 0 261 305 P+ a EX 999 ($10)
2018 TOR o98 476 22 5 239 302 F PW -A EX 367 $0
2019 TOR o98 417 26 6 230 306 M PW -A e 360 $0
2020 TOR o98 190 16 6 289 340 F P+ s a 365 $0
PROJ p TOR o98 F P+ Rg 75 $15

The Narrative: In 2019, Hernandez hit 26 home runs in less than a full season. The 2020 market, however, mostly ignored him, as his ADP was after Round 20. But Hernandez became the leader of the Blue Jays offense, displaying exceptional power, a career high batting average, and he threw in a half dozen steals for good measure — all this despite missing time with an oblique strain in September. The market has awakened, with his current ADP in the 6th round. BABS…is that too much helium?

BABS’ Take: BABS was already a believer a year ago, identifying Hernandez as a late round extreme power source, and owners who followed her advice were handsomely rewarded. Again for 2021, BABS rates his power skills as elite, although BABS does not deem his batting effectiveness or speed skills as asset worthy, hinting that he could be a candidate for BA regression. All things considered, BABS thinks his price is about right, and grabbing an extreme power bat of this caliber in the 6th round seems like fair value.

DINELSON LAMET
ASSETS LIABILITIES MARKET
Year Team IP W Sv K ERA WHIP PT Sk K Sv Pk Rg Sk Inj Ex Nw Pk Ag Rg ADP $$
2017 SD 114.3 7 0 139 4.57 1.24 M KK -ER
2019 SD 73 3 0 105 4.07 1.26 – e K+ INJ EX 697 ($6)
2020 SD 69 3 0 93 2.09 0.86 F E+ K+ INJ e 127 $10
PROJ p SD M e K+ INJ e Rg 84 $14

The Narrative: In his first full season back from Tommy John surgery, Lamet put together an impressive 12 starts for the Padres…2.09/0.86 ratios with 93 strikeouts in just 69 innings. Owning one of the best sliders in baseball, Lamet used this pitch more than 50 percent of the time, pairing it with an above average fastball for a lethal two-pitch arsenal. Unfortunately, he missed the end of the regular season and all the playoffs with an elbow injury. Lamet avoided surgery and reports indicate that his PRP treatment path has him feeling 100 percent entering the spring. The Padres signed three big-name starters in the off-season, perhaps an indication of their concerns over his health. The fantasy market is also divided, as Lamet is currently being selected anywhere from the 4th to the 7th round, the widest range for any starter going in the first 10 rounds.

BABS’ Take: With an asset rating of (e, K+), BABS rates Lamet as one of the most highly skilled pitchers in the game. His assets place him in the same group as Lucas Giolito, Blake Snell and Corbin Burnes. In fact, of all the full- or mid–time pitchers, there are only five ranked higher. That is quite an endorsement. The issue of course is the pair of liability marks for both injury and experience that make it a high risk/high reward proposition at his current price. The upside is tantalizing if you can hold your breath all season.

BLAKE SNELL
ASSETS LIABILITIES MARKET
Year Team IP W Sv K ERA WHIP PT Sk K Sv Pk Rg Sk Inj Ex Nw Pk Ag Rg ADP $$
2016 TAM 89 6 0 98 3.54 1.62 KK
2017 TAM 129.3 5 0 119 4.04 1.33 M k -ER EX 235 $4
2018 TAM 180.7 21 0 221 1.89 0.97 F E+ KK e 205 $6
2019 TAM 104.7 6 0 143 4.21 1.25 P e K+ Rg 30 $24
2020 TAM 50 4 0 63 3.24 1.20 M ER K+ INJ 46 $20
PROJ p SD M ER K+ INJ Nw 47 $20

The narrative: For years, Snell has been an intriguing talent. Massive strikeout upside. Cy Young Award winner. And recently, injury-prone disappointment. Lefties with his raw stuff are extremely rare.

His banner 2018 campaign came out of the area of the draft from which all Cy Young winners hail: ADP 205. Which is to say, it came out of nowhere. Managers happily collected their winnings. But the following season, Blake came in at ADP 30. Yes, a sizable jump, but some were still hesitant. Recency bias couldn’t push him any higher. 

BABS’ take: When Snell was still a young prospect, BABS didn’t register him as a ratio helper. Then 2018 happened. Since that time, Snell’s strikeout upside has remained elite, while BABS has been a bit perplexed by his pitching effectiveness. Is he elite (E+) like 2018? Is he just good (e) as in 2019? Did we see his skills consolidate (ER) in 2020? 

Much of this inconsistency is likely attributable to the (INJ) on the liabilities side of Snell’s ledger. Stops and starts and innings caps and quick hooks. This can mess with a guy’s rhythm. The 200+ strikeout upside is very, very real. For his projected pitching effectiveness, BABS has settled on (ER), which says BABS expects this to be is his stabilization point.

LUKE VOIT
ASSETS LIABILITIES MARKET
Year Team Pos AB HR SB Avg OBP PT Pw Sp Av Pk Rg Sk Inj Ex Nw Pk Ag Rg ADP $$
2017 STL 30 114 4 0 246 306 p
2018 NYY 30 143 15 0 322 398 P+ A+ EX 669 ($6)
2019 NYY 30 429 21 0 263 378 M PW EX 180 $7
2020 NYY 30 213 22 0 277 338 F P+ AV inj- e 188 $6
PROJ p NYY 30 F PW a inj- 62 $17

The Narrative: A year ago the Yankees made Voit their everyday 1Bman, and he delivered in a big way. Voit pounded a league leading 22 home runs, along with a solid .277 batting average, despite playing through planter fasciitis. The home runs in the shortened 2020 campaign were more than he had hit in any of his previous seasons. This breakout has now hoisted Voit into the 4th round for 2021 drafts.

BABS’ Take: BABS has always recognized Voit’s power skills, and recently added a batting effectiveness asset to his ledger. A year ago, Voit could be obtained near pick 200, which BABS thought was an attractive price for his dual-asset skill set. For 2021, despite his home run barrage, BABS says he is basically the same player he was a year ago. Voit in the Asset group with Nelson Cruz, Mike Moustakas, Paul Goldschmidt, and others, which is good company for sure, but BABS thinks the recency bias and perhaps a Yankees premium have elevated Voit’s price tag a bit too high as compared to his peers.