2021 Player History Scans – February 24

(Photo by Cliff Welch/Icon Sportswire)

The BABS database provides historical scans of each player, going back to 2014. These scans not only chart their statistical output but also how BABS has rated their performance and how the marketplace valued them coming into each season.

This treatment often reveals some underlying trends that the raw statistics fail to discover. These Player History Scans look at some of the most interesting players where BABS might see things a little bit differently from the public narrative.

 

CHRIS BASSITT
ASSETS LIABILITIES MARKET
Year Team IP W Sv K ERA WHIP PT Sk K Sv Pk Rg Sk In Ex Nw Pk Ag Rg ADP $$
2014 CHW 30 1 0 21 3.94 1.58 -E
2015 OAK 86 1 0 64 3.56 1.26
2016 OAK 28 0 0 23 6.11 1.75 -E
2018 OAK 48 2 0 41 3.02 1.24 e INJ 999 ($10)
2019 OAK 143 10 0 139 3.84 1.19 M 737 ($7)
2020 OAK 63 5 0 55 2.29 1.16 F ER 567 ($4)
PROJ p OAK M -E Rg 190 $6

The narrative: This is a guy I can get behind. Two straight seasons of fine production. He’s not going to kill you. We need to fill out our rotations, and steady Chris Bassitt will work. Most will sleep on this no-name, while I steady the back end of my fantasy staff with a late round pick.

Over a 63 inning sample in 2020, Bassitt was great. Probably helped win a few leagues. After going undrafted in each of the last three seasons, all of a sudden Chris Bassitt is checking in with an ADP under 200 (190). BABS?

BABS’ take: There are 33 pitchers in the same asset group as Bassitt. “Asset group” is used loosely with this lot, as none of them have any assets…at all. The other thing they have in common? A pitching effectiveness liability (-E). This is not an attractive skill set. Look at the market: Bassitt is the only one with an ADP under 200. Sure, there are some names here: Mize, Bumgarner and Sheffield; none of whom leave the board prior to pick 290. Is Bassitt seven rounds better than those guys?

Not with a 4.49 xFIP, which is what he posted last year. That 4.49 was a career best. There is so much less here than meets the eye.

Mostly, these pitchers are dollar flyers or waiver wire additions. A full 85 percent of the group go at pick 421 or later. When surface stats continually exceed skills (as is the case with Bassitt), a player is often ripe for regression. Some players are able to make a living this way, but BABS cautions us against betting on Bassitt (Rg-) to be one of them.

JOSH BELL
ASSETS LIABILITIES MARKET
Year Team Pos AB HR SB Avg OBP PT Pw Sp Av Pk Rg Sk Inj Ex Nw Pk Ag Rg ADP $$
2016 PIT 30 128 3 0 273 368 a
2017 PIT 30 549 26 2 255 334 F a inj- EX 294 $2
2018 PIT 30 501 12 2 261 357 F e 186 $7
2019 PIT 30 527 37 0 277 367 F p AV 255 $3
2020 PIT 30 195 8 0 226 305 F -A 96 $13
PROJ p WAS 30 F p a Nw 169 $8

The narrative: Entering last season Josh Bell was on the rise. His banner 2019 season was the realization of great expectations. A switch-hitting, run-producing first baseman with power. This was to be Eddie Murray 2.0. Instead we got Josh Bell 2020.

Sure, he could be as good as 2019. Can we just throw 2020 in the waste bin? In his case, it might not be that simple.

BABS’ take: Prior to 2019, when Bell broke out, he was an enigma. A big-bodied first baseman who just could not get the ball in the air enough to make a difference. Even during his 26 HR campaign in 2017, BABS was circumspect. She didn’t place an asset on his power until the big 2019 season. Even then, she wasn’t entirely convinced. 37 HRs and just a (p)? Meh.

Heading into 2021, Bell is about a 10th round pick, about 70 picks later than this time last year. While BABS doesn’t seem to be betting on a repeat of 2019, she still tabs him with the dual asset mix of (p,a). That’s the asset group with Conforto/Correa upside, and perhaps even as high as Cardinal Arenado. Bell does get a lineup and ballpark upgrade with the move to Washington DC. With assets in tow, this could be a chance to right the ship. Expecting a 2019 repeat is probably not wise, but at ADP 169 that’s not what you are paying for. There is still some room for profit at this price.

NELSON CRUZ
ASSETS LIABILITIES MARKET
Year Team Pos AB HR SB Avg OBP PT Pw Sp Av Pk Rg Sk Inj Ex Nw Pk Ag Rg ADP $$
2014 BAL 0 613 40 4 271 333 F P+ AV
2015 SEA 0 590 44 3 302 369 F P+ AV
2016 SEA 0 589 43 2 287 360 F P+ AV AG
2017 SEA 0 556 39 1 288 375 F PW AV AG 40 $22
2018 SEA 0 519 37 1 256 342 F PW a AG 57 $18
2019 MIN 0 454 41 0 311 392 F P+ AV Nw AG 99 $13
2020 MIN 0 185 16 0 303 397 F P+ AV AG Rg 63 $17
PROJ p MIN 0 F PW a AG Rg 99 $13

The Narrative: Will Nelson Cruz ever start acting his age? So far, he has not! At 41 this year, he has been a consistent $20-$30 player since age 34, including another $25 in 2020. Owners who selected Cruz at his ADP 100 were exceptionally compensated. Cruz recently re-inked a 1-year, $13M deal and will be back in Minnesota for 2021. The fantasy community is keeping with its annual practice of discounting Cruz to roughly the same ADP as a year ago.

BABS Take: BABS has always recognized Cruz’s attractive power and batting effectiveness skills – and he has been extraordinarily consistent. However, Cruz has been dropped a notch for his 2021 rating. As BABS looked closer at his 2020 metrics, there were small degradations in xBA, contact rate and hard-hit rates. Nonetheless, he is still grouped with other impressive names…Harper, Meadows, Goldschmidt to name a few. But, as always, there remains the ever-present age liability, a notion that Cruz continues to scoff at. With all that said, BABS thinks that Cruz will once again outshine his market price, although perhaps by a smaller margin.

MARCO GONZALES
ASSETS LIABILITIES MARKET
Year Team IP W Sv K ERA WHIP PT Sk K Sv Pk Rg Sk In Ex Nw Pk Ag Rg ADP $$
2014 STL 34.7 4 0 31 4.15 1.53 k -E
2015 STL 2.7 0 0 1 13.50 3.00 -E
2017 SEA 40 1 0 32 6.08 1.75 -E
2018 SEA 166.7 13 0 145 4.00 1.22 M e 554 ($4)
2019 SEA 203 16 0 147 3.99 1.31 F -EK 273 $3
2020 SEA 69.7 7 0 64 3.10 0.95 F e 618 ($5)
PROJ p SEA F -K 162 $8

The Narrative: Gonzales had an amazing season in 2020, highlighted by a career-high 23% K rate coupled with a career low sub-3% walk rate. Yes, he posted these levels despite a swinging strike rate of only 8.7% and fastball velocity on a three-year decline, now at 88 mph. Still, his fantasy owners who threw a late round dart or snagged him off waivers received as much profit as any player delivered in 2020. For 2021, while nobody is planning for a repeat, Gonzales’s ADP has felt the recency bias boost, hovering in the Round 10-11 neighborhood.

 BABS Take: Nope. Still is not buying into Gonzales’s skill set, BABS rates him as (-K). While this is an improvement from a former (-EK) rating, this is still an arm that you should avoid, especially at his current price. That price – ADP 162 – is more that 100 spots ahead of his previous career high market level. Can you say, “regression?” Gonzales is projected for full-time innings, however, when you look at his last full season in 2019 — an xFIP north of 5.00 and a paltry 11% K rate — 180+ innings of that would not be a good thing to own.

DALLAS KEUCHEL
ASSETS LIABILITIES MARKET
Year Team IP W Sv K ERA WHIP PT Sk K Sv Pk Rg Sk In Ex Nw Pk Ag Rg ADP $$
2014 HOU 200 12 0 146 2.93 1.18 F ER
2015 HOU 232 20 0 216 2.48 1.02 F ER k
2016 HOU 168 9 0 144 4.55 1.29 M k
2017 HOU 145.7 14 0 125 2.90 1.12 M ER inj- 146 $9
2018 HOU 204.7 12 0 153 3.74 1.31 F e INJ 77 $15
2019 ATL 112.7 8 0 91 3.75 1.37 P e 192 $6
2020 CHW 63.3 6 0 42 1.99 1.09 F ER -K Nw 287 $2
PROJ p CHW M e -K Rg- 197 $6

The Narrative: Fantasy owners who grabbed Keuchel in the 20th round in 2020 were generously rewarded, as he had a career best 1.99 ERA to go with a helpful 1.09 WHIP. Those ratios were driven by plenty of good fortune — his xFIP was 3.98 – but the marketplace is still pumping up his ADP by about 100 spots since last year. Maybe the market is betting that his 50-60% groundball rate will continue to keep runs from scoring and an improved ChiSox offense could deliver more wins. As such, his draft price hovers around the Round 13-14 range.

BABS Take: Through the years, BABS has recognized Keuchel’s skills in pitching effectiveness, though his moderate rating of (e) indicates that owners should expect ratios more in line with his career levels. More serious, his plummeting strikeout rate has reached the point where BABS views him as a strikeout category liability, which is problematic in these days of rising K rates. Keuchel leads an asset group with Marcus Stroman 30 picks later, and Miles Mikolas and Randy Dobnak outside the top 400. It’s not a skill set you need to reach for.

AUSTIN MEADOWS
ASSETS LIABILITIES MARKET
Year Team Pos AB HR SB Avg OBP PT Pw Sp Av Pk Rg Sk Inj Ex Nw Pk Ag Rg ADP $$
2017 PIT o70 0 0 0 0 0 -AV EX 502 ($3)
2018 TAM o70 178 6 5 287 325 SB a EX 498 ($3)
2019 TAM o70 530 33 12 291 364 F PW AV EX 186 $7
2020 TAM o70 132 4 2 205 296 M PW -A inj- e 36 $23
PROJ p TAM o70 F PW a inj- e 95 $13

The narrative: Austin Meadows (pictured)  was supposed to be the next big thing. We rode him to cash finishes in 2019. His 2020 was a total face-plant, and we, the drafting public will not be fooled again. What say we drop him 60(ish) spots from 36 to 95 ADP. That’ll learn him!

Meadows’ potential to be a five-category contributor was (is?) mouthwatering. Spending a third round pick last year seemed a good bet for that profile. Yes, we have a tendency to discount disappointing players. Is it justified in Meadows’ case, or is it recency bias?

BABS’ take: Even after Meadows’ big 2019, BABS was feeling tepid about his speed. So, five-category stud? Maybe not. That said, BABS has been consistent in her analysis of his power tool. Two straight years of (PW) and now a 2021 projection of the same shows she’s serious. And (PW,a) asset mixes form an intriguing group, led by Bryce Harper and Luke Voit.

Meadows’ 2020 was so….2020. He missed time with Covid and an oblique injury. Don’t forget, this time last year he was on the cusp. He does own a real power skill. He might not be a third round player (yet). The 60 spot tumble in ADP leaves space for one of BABS’ favorite alliterations: potential profit.

WIL MYERS
ASSETS LIABILITIES MARKET
Year Team Pos AB HR SB Avg OBP PT Pw Sp Av Pk Rg Sk Inj Ex Nw Pk Ag Rg ADP $$
2014 TAM o9 325 6 6 222 294 M s -AV
2015 SD o9 225 8 5 253 336 PW
2016 SD o9 599 28 28 259 336 F PW SB a
2017 SD o9 567 30 20 243 328 F p s 56 $18
2018 SD o9 312 11 13 253 318 M PW s a 66 $17
2019 SD o9 435 18 16 239 321 M p s -A INJ 106 $12
2020 SD o9 198 15 2 288 353 F P+ AV 241 $4
PROJ p SD o9 F PW 129 $10

The Narrative: Myers was a fantasy stud in 2016 and 2017, averaging roughly 30 HRs and 25 SBs those seasons. Since, Myers has been up and down, with 2020 being an exceptionally good year. His power spike was supported by career highs in barrel rate (14.8%) and average exit velocity (91.0 mph). His lone blemish was just two stolen bases. Despite the lack of bags, Myers rewarded his owners with a $27 season, well above his 15th round acquisition cost. The market for 2021 is not paying for a full repeat, as his ADP lingers around pick 130, even with the overall Padres team hype this coming season.

BABS Take: BABS buys into the power improvement, a bit. There was a history of (PW) power, which had been sagging recently, but 2020’s supported output has BABS optimistic again. That’s the good news. The bad news is that she’s not buying the batting effectiveness, likely seeing 198 AB of .288 as not enough to lift Myers’ BA much above the .250ish level he had been showing over the previous six years. As for his speed, at 30, that’s no longer expected to be much of a factor. Still, the (PW) group includes solid bats like Eugenio Suarez and Max Muncy.

AARON NOLA
ASSETS LIABILITIES MARKET
Year Team IP W Sv K ERA WHIP PT Sk K Sv Pk Rg Sk In Ex Nw Pk Ag Rg ADP $$
2015 PHI 77.7 6 0 68 3.59 1.20 e k
2016 PHI 111 6 0 121 4.78 1.31 M KK
2017 PHI 168 12 0 184 3.54 1.21 M e k INJ e 203 $6
2018 PHI 212.3 17 0 224 2.37 0.97 F E+ k inj- 63 $17
2019 PHI 202.3 12 0 229 3.87 1.27 F e KK Rg 25 $26
2020 PHI 71.3 5 0 96 3.28 1.08 F ER K+ 67 $17
PROJ p PHI F ER KK 23 $27

The narrative: For years, Nola has been on a short list of workhorse starting pitchers. His 2018 breakout pushed him into the 2nd round of 2019 drafts, ultimately disappointing those who paid the high price. Nola’s apparent return to form in 2020 has the market viewing him as a second-rounder once again.

Let’s be honest: Nola’s 2018 campaign rode career-low hit and homerun rates. He hasn’t approached those metrics since. His 2019 was more in line with his skills. Then 2020 happened, fully skill-supported. Nola’s yo-yo statlines feel Saberhagen-esque. Can he buck the (anecdotal) trend in 2021?

BABS’ take: The funny thing about 2018? BABS was less convinced of Nola’s strikeout prowess than she was of his pitching effectiveness (which was partly luck). Since then, his strikeout dominance has ticked up year over year; that may be the most intriguing trend here. Still, BABS is playing it more conservative for 2021 – regression, short season, et al — but an (ER,KK) projection still puts him in the same class as the arms going as much as a half round ahead of him – Bauer, Darvish, Buehler – and sets a nice floor for 2021.

So, no tears if you miss out on that trio. Want to get over exuberant? In 2020 (pass the salt), he put up career bests in K% and swinging strike rate.

GARY SANCHEZ
ASSETS LIABILITIES MARKET
Year Team Pos AB HR SB Avg OBP PT Pw Sp Av Pk Rg Sk Inj Ex Nw Pk Ag Rg ADP $$
2015 NYY 20 2 0 0 0 0 -A
2016 NYY 20 201 20 1 299 376 P+ A+
2017 NYY 20 471 33 2 278 345 F PW AV EX Rg 50 $19
2018 NYY 20 323 18 1 186 291 M PW -A inj- e 19 $29
2019 NYY 20 396 34 0 232 316 M PW INJ 55 $19
2020 NYY 20 156 10 0 147 253 F PW -A INJ 89 $14
PROJ p NYY 20 M PW -A 181 $7

The narrative: Sanchez is an uber-talented bat who has struggled at times to reach his full potential. If things click, he could be the best offensive catcher in baseball. Look at what he did in 2016-17! The Mike Piazza trajectory was in play.

Sadly, it never came to fruition. Sanchez has struggled with inconsistency ever since he was crowned entering 2018 as a top 20 pick (ADP 19!!).

BABS’ take: BABS seemed to believe, just like everyone else, that Sanchez was the real deal. His power and batting effectiveness assets agreed with his surface stats in 2016 (P+,A+) and 2017 (PW,AV). The two sides have also been in lockstep since 2018, though not in the same exuberant fashion. BABS has been more unsmiling in recent years.

Sanchez’ batting effectiveness has gone from the penthouse in 2016 (A+) to the outhouse for this season’s projection (-A). Do you like Mike Zunino? Then you’ll LOVE Gary Sanchez. Seriously, that’s how far we’ve come.

Still, Sanchez’ mercurial ways make him anything but a sure thing. And that includes his downside. He clearly owns the power he displays. Can the batting average come out of hiding, or is it gone for good? The upshot: it won’t cost a top 100 pick anymore to find out. At an ADP pushing towards 200, he’s a bit more palatable than in recent years. But remember this: Others in the same asset group include Hunter Renfroe (440) and Khris Davis (508). Want a catcher? Mike Zunino goes off at pick 575.

KYLE TUCKER
ASSETS LIABILITIES MARKET
Year Team Pos AB HR SB Avg OBP PT Pw Sp Av Pk Rg Sk Inj Ex Nw Pk Ag Rg ADP $$
2018 HOU o709 64 0 1 141 236 -AV EX 524 ($4)
2019 HOU o709 67 4 5 269 319 – p SB a EX 291 $2
2020 HOU o709 209 9 8 268 325 F PW S+ a EX 179 $7
PROJ p HOU o709 F PW SB EX 31 $24

The Narrative: A consistently top-ranked prospect, Tucker received a brief major league cameo in 2018, which did not go well, and again in 2019, which was better. Last season, with his first chance at everyday playing time, he had a particularly good year, with 27 XBH including 9 HRs, supported by strong Statcast metrics. He also added 8 SBs. With the departures of Springer and Reddick, the 24-year-old now finds himself as the cornerstone of the Houston outfield heading into 2021. The fantasy market has certainly taken notice, pushing Tucker’s ADP into the end of Round 2, with bold predictions of five-category production for this season.

BABS Take: BABS has been bullish on Tucker’s skill set, rating him as a triple asset performer back to his minor league years. For 2021, BABS believes in Tucker’s significant power and speed abilities, landing him in the (PW,SB) asset group. Just shy of gaining an (a) rating in batting effectiveness, that bump would have put him in the same class as Trevor Story. But he’s that close.

With fewer than 400 total big league plate appearances, you can’t ignore that (EX) in the liability column; the error bar remains wide. While BABS places high value on Tucker’s power/speed combo, the market helium may have raised his 2021 price a bit too lofty, all factors considered.