2021 Outfielders
(Photo by Dustin Bradford/Icon Sportswire)
by Pat Cloghessy
Loaded.
The outfield position in 2021 contains four of the top six picks overall, 12 of the top 50 and 23 of the first 100 choices, according to ADP.
It’s not wishful thinking, either. The BABS assets contained in the top crop of outfielders seem to be in line with market prices.
To wit:
- 21 of those 23 premium picks come with at least two BABS assets in tow.
- There are five full-timers with extreme power (P+), and four of them are gone by pick 71.
- All five triple asset outfielders are inside the top 60 ADP.
- Ten from this position have power/speed asset combos. Seven are in the top 100 ADP.
- Nine of fourteen outfielders who have the (PW) asset are also in this group.
Risk? Relatively low. This cohort of 23 contains these liability totals:
Experience – 6
Regression – 5
Injury – 3
Batting effectiveness – 1
Ready to pony up?
Here are the BABS ratings for outfielders who will potentially provide positive value to your team:
| ADP | R$ | BATTER | Pos | Tm | PT | Pw | Sp | Av | * | Pk | Rg | Sk- | Inj | Ex | Nw | Ag | Pk | Rg | |
| 2 | $51 | Acuna,Ronald | 89 | ATL | F | P+ | SB | a | * | ||||||||||
| 3 | $47 | Betts,Mookie | 9 | LA | F | PW | SB | AV | * | ||||||||||
| 4 | $44 | Soto,Juan | 7 | WAS | F | PW | A+ | * | Rg | ||||||||||
| 6 | $40 | Trout,Mike | 8 | LAA | F | P+ | AV | * | |||||||||||
| 12 | $33 | Yelich,Christian | 70 | MIL | F | PW | s | AV | * | Rg | |||||||||
| 16 | $31 | Bellinger,Cody | 83 | LA | F | PW | s | AV | * | Rg | inj- | ||||||||
| 57 | $18 | Judge,Aaron | 9 | NYY | F | P+ | a | * | INJ | ||||||||||
| 202 | $6 | Taveras,Leody | 8 | TEX | M | p | S+ | EX | |||||||||||
| 86 | $14 | Castellanos,Nick | 9 | CIN | F | PW | AV | Rg | |||||||||||
| 50 | $19 | Marte,Starling | 8 | MIA | F | SB | AV | ||||||||||||
| 31 | $24 | Tucker,Kyle | 709 | HOU | F | PW | SB | EX | |||||||||||
| 36 | $23 | Robert,Luis | 8 | CHW | F | PW | S+ | -A | EX | ||||||||||
| 91 | $14 | McNeil,Jeff | 745 | NYM | F | A+ | Rg | ||||||||||||
| 157 | $8 | Brantley,Michael | 7 | HOU | F | A+ | |||||||||||||
| 72 | $16 | Hernandez,Teoscar | 98 | TOR | F | P+ | Rg | ||||||||||||
| 146 | $9 | Soler,Jorge | 9 | KC | F | P+ | * | ||||||||||||
| 58 | $18 | Arozarena,Randy | 7 | TAM | F | p | s | a | EX | ||||||||||
| 20 | $28 | Harper,Bryce | 90 | PHI | F | PW | a | * | |||||||||||
| 95 | $13 | Meadows,Austin | 70 | TAM | F | PW | a | inj- | e | ||||||||||
| 40 | $22 | Merrifield,Whit | 984 | KC | F | s | AV | ||||||||||||
| 275 | $3 | Peralta,David | 70 | ARI | F | s | AV | Rg | |||||||||||
| 37 | $22 | Jimenez,Eloy | 7 | CHW | F | p | AV | e | |||||||||||
| 47 | $20 | Ozuna,Marcell | 7 | ATL | F | p | AV | * | Rg | ||||||||||
| 55 | $19 | Springer,George | 89 | TOR | F | p | AV | * | Nw | ||||||||||
| 84 | $14 | Gurriel,Lourdes | 7 | TOR | F | p | AV | Rg | |||||||||||
| 91 | $14 | Blackmon,Charlie | 90 | COL | F | p | AV | ||||||||||||
| 117 | $11 | Rosario,Eddie | 7 | CLE | F | p | AV | Nw | |||||||||||
| 210 | $5 | Winker,Jesse | 7 | CIN | F | p | AV | * | |||||||||||
| 646 | $(6) | Braun,Ryan | 90 | MIL | P | p | AV | Rg | Ag | ||||||||||
| 409 | $(1) | Cordero,Franchy | 9 | KC | M | PW | s | Rg | INJ | EX | |||||||||
| 115 | $11 | Buxton,Byron | 8 | MIN | F | p | SB | inj- | |||||||||||
| 384 | $(1) | Hilliard,Sam | 798 | COL | M | P+ | s | -A | EX | ||||||||||
| 124 | $11 | Pham,Tommy | 70 | SD | F | s | a | * | Rg | inj- | |||||||||
| 286 | $2 | Dubon,Mauricio | 846 | SF | F | s | a | EX | Rg | ||||||||||
| 395 | $(1) | Slater,Austin | 9 | SF | P | s | a | * | e | ||||||||||
| 76 | $15 | Conforto,Michael | 9 | NYM | F | p | a | * | Rg | ||||||||||
| 159 | $8 | Santander,Anthony | 9 | BAL | F | p | a | inj- | e | ||||||||||
| 196 | $6 | Grichuk,Randal | 80 | TOR | M | p | a | ||||||||||||
| 205 | $6 | Pollock,A.J. | 780 | LA | F | p | a | ||||||||||||
| 252 | $4 | Puig,Yasiel | 0 | FAA | P | p | a | ||||||||||||
| 293 | $2 | Reynolds,Bryan | 78 | PIT | F | p | a | Rg | e | ||||||||||
| 335 | $1 | Dickerson,Alex | 7 | SF | M | p | a | e | |||||||||||
| 269 | $3 | Canha,Mark | 978 | OAK | F | p | s | * | |||||||||||
| 416 | $(1) | Jones,JaCoby | 8 | DET | F | p | s | INJ | Rg | ||||||||||
| 999 | $(10) | Johnson Jr.,Daniel | CLE | P | p | s | Rg | EX | |||||||||||
| 128 | $10 | Verdugo,Alex | 97 | BOS | F | AV | e | ||||||||||||
| 365 | $(0) | Dickerson,Corey | 7 | MIA | F | AV | |||||||||||||
| 522 | $(4) | Andujar,Miguel | 70 | NYY | P | AV | INJ | e | |||||||||||
| 743 | $(7) | Markakis,Nick | 97 | FAN | P | AV | Rg | Ag | |||||||||||
| 750 | $(7) | Ramirez,Harold | MIA | P | AV | INJ | EX | ||||||||||||
| 129 | $10 | Myers,Wil | 9 | SD | F | PW | |||||||||||||
| 138 | $10 | Yastrzemski,Mike | 987 | SF | F | PW | e | Rg | |||||||||||
| 148 | $9 | Carlson,Dylan | 987 | STL | F | PW | EX | ||||||||||||
| 162 | $8 | Happ,Ian | 879 | CHC | F | PW | * | ||||||||||||
| 195 | $6 | Schwarber,Kyle | 70 | WAS | F | PW | * | Rg | Nw | ||||||||||
| 259 | $3 | Calhoun,Kole | 9 | ARI | F | PW | * | Rg | |||||||||||
| 376 | $(0) | Pederson,Joc | 709 | CHC | F | PW | Rg | Nw | |||||||||||
| 744 | $(7) | Bruce,Jay | 70 | FAN | P | PW | Rg | INJ | |||||||||||
| 266 | $3 | Tapia,Raimel | 70 | COL | F | SB | AV | -P | e | Rg | |||||||||
| 159 | $8 | Robles,Victor | 8 | WAS | F | SB | e | ||||||||||||
| 169 | $8 | Solak,Nick | 748 | TEX | F | SB | EX | Rg | |||||||||||
| 260 | $3 | Margot,Manuel | 879 | TAM | M | SB | |||||||||||||
| 370 | $(0) | Eaton,Adam | 9 | CHW | M | SB | Rg | Nw | |||||||||||
| 502 | $(3) | Kiermaier,Kevin | 8 | TAM | M | SB | |||||||||||||
| 663 | $(6) | Gardner,Brett | 78 | FAA | P | SB | * | Ag | |||||||||||
| 595 | $(5) | Locastro,Tim | 87 | ARI | P | S+ | -P | EX | Rg | ||||||||||
| 165 | $8 | Gallo,Joey | 9 | TEX | F | P+ | * | Rg | -A | ||||||||||
| 410 | $(1) | Duvall,Adam | 79 | FAN | M | P+ | -A | ||||||||||||
| 219 | $5 | Profar,Jurickson | 74 | SD | M | a | |||||||||||||
| 346 | $1 | Calhoun,Willie | 7 | TEX | F | a | Rg | inj- | e | ||||||||||
| 360 | $0 | Pillar,Kevin | 89 | FAN | P | a | Rg | ||||||||||||
| 402 | $(1) | Grossman,Robert | 7 | DET | F | a | * | Nw | |||||||||||
| 449 | $(2) | Heyward,Jason | 9 | CHC | F | a | * | ||||||||||||
| 601 | $(5) | Tauchman,Mike | 79 | NYY | P | a | * | e | |||||||||||
| 603 | $(5) | Desmond,Ian | 0 | COL | P | a | |||||||||||||
| 247 | $4 | Cain,Lorenzo | 8 | MIL | F | s | AV | -P | |||||||||||
| 62 | $17 | Grisham,Trent | 8 | SD | F | s | * | EX | |||||||||||
| 276 | $3 | Senzel,Nick | 8 | CIN | M | s | Rg | e | |||||||||||
| 497 | $(3) | Stevenson,Andrew | 7 | WAS | P | s | EX | ||||||||||||
| 142 | $9 | Laureano,Ramon | 8 | OAK | F | p | e | ||||||||||||
| 185 | $7 | Frazier,Clint | 97 | NYY | F | p | e | Rg | |||||||||||
| 185 | $7 | Kepler,Max | 9 | MIN | F | p | * | ||||||||||||
| 199 | $6 | McCutchen,Andrew | 70 | PHI | F | p | * | ||||||||||||
| 280 | $3 | Haniger,Mitch | 0 | SEA | M | p | INJ | ||||||||||||
| 282 | $3 | Hicks,Aaron | 8 | NYY | F | p | * | Rg | |||||||||||
| 316 | $1 | Dahl,David | 8 | TEX | M | p | Rg | INJ | Nw | Pk | |||||||||
| 534 | $(4) | Choo,Shin-Soo | 70 | FAA | P | p | * | Ag | |||||||||||
| 712 | $(7) | Cave,Jake | 897 | MIN | P | p | e | ||||||||||||
| 747 | $(7) | Luplow,Jordan | 79 | CLE | P | p | * | Rg | e | ||||||||||
| 504 | $(3) | Bader,Harrison | 8 | STL | F | p | SB | -A | |||||||||||
| 196 | $6 | Reyes,Victor | 879 | DET | F | s | a | -P | e | ||||||||||
| 722 | $(7) | Munoz,Yairo | 7 | BOS | P | s | a | -P | e | Rg | |||||||||
| 112 | $12 | Moore,Dylan | 974 | SEA | M | p | s | -A | inj- | EX | |||||||||
| 427 | $(2) | Akiyama,Shogo | 78 | CIN | M | AV | * | -P | EX | ||||||||||
| 149 | $9 | Mountcastle,Ryan | 73 | BAL | F | EX | Rg | ||||||||||||
| 226 | $5 | Hays,Austin | 87 | BAL | F | inj- | EX | Rg | |||||||||||
| 230 | $5 | Benintendi,Andrew | 7 | BOS | F | * | Rg | inj- | |||||||||||
| 257 | $3 | Nimmo,Brandon | 879 | NYM | F | * | |||||||||||||
| 276 | $3 | Kirilloff,Alex | 0 | MIN | P | EX | |||||||||||||
| 331 | $1 | Garcia,Avisail | 8 | MIL | F | ||||||||||||||
| 359 | $0 | Bradley,Jackie | 8 | FAA | M | Rg | |||||||||||||
| 485 | $(3) | Piscotty,Stephen | 9 | OAK | M | ||||||||||||||
| 563 | $(4) | Mazara,Nomar | 9 | CHW | P | ||||||||||||||
| 699 | $(6) | Ward,Taylor | 97 | LAA | P | EX | Rg | ||||||||||||
| 724 | $(7) | Naquin,Tyler | 9 | FAA | P | INJ | |||||||||||||
| 740 | $(7) | Diaz,Yusniel | 0 | BAL | M | EX | |||||||||||||
| 751 | $(7) | Joyce,Matt | 970 | MIA | P | * | Ag | Rg | |||||||||||
| 427 | $(2) | Renfroe,Hunter | 9 | BOS | M | PW | Rg | -A | Nw | ||||||||||
| 422 | $(1) | Naylor,Josh | 70 | CLE | F | a | -P | EX | |||||||||||
| 691 | $(6) | Haseley,Adam | 879 | PHI | M | a | -P | EX | |||||||||||
| 129 | $10 | Lewis,Kyle | 8 | SEA | F | p | * | -A | EX | Rg | |||||||||
| 375 | $(0) | Upton,Justin | 7 | LAA | F | p | Rg | -A | |||||||||||
| 444 | $(2) | Polanco,Gregory | 90 | PIT | F | p | Rg | -A | INJ | ||||||||||
| 499 | $(3) | O Neill,Tyler | 7 | STL | F | p | Rg | -A | EX |
ASSETS: PT (Playing time), Pw (Power), Sp (Speed), Av (Batting Effectiveness), * (OBP help), Pk (Park help), Rg (Regression help). LIABILITIES: Sk (Skills risk), Inj (Injury), Ex (Inexperience), Nw (New team), Pk (Park hurt), Ag (Age decline), Rg (Regression hurt)
The 8th and 9th ranked outfielders selected (per ADP) are being selected with picks in the 30s. Both Kyle Tucker (PW,SB) and Luis Robert (PW,S+|-A) are coming off big seasons in 2020. Youthful breakouts often lead to inflated draft prices. Is that the case here? The strong assets are certainly worth considering in the third round. If you want a full-time power/speed combo, this is the last chance to grab one until Byron Buxton (p,SB) at pick 115. After that it’s either Mark Canha at 269, or Jacoby Jones or Harrison Bader in the 400s. The tools are there for Tucker and Robert. Their upside, coupled with the paucity of speed probably explains (justifies?) a third round selection.
Normally this space avoids analysis of superstars (though we’ll include a pic of Mookie Betts, above), but it’d be neglectful not to mention two Top 5 picks from just a year ago. Both Christian Yelich and Cody Bellinger are teeming with BABS assets (PW,s,AV). They have tumbled to the end of the first/early second round. What happened other than a down 2020? This is not necessarily an argument in favor of Yeli or Belli over any of the Top 4 outfielders. It might just be more of a proclamation for the prioritization of KDS preferences toward the 1st/2nd round wheel.
Austin Meadows (PW,a) has also seen his ADP (95) nosedive after a forgettable 2020 campaign. Bryce Harper (PW,a) boasts the same assets and requires a 2nd round pick. Again, not stumping for Meadows over Harper, but Austin still has skills and this time last year was at ADP 36, ninth outfielder off the board. If he can be had at or near ADP, there is potential profit.
The (p,AV) asset group counts seven full-timers, three of which are in our top 23 outfielders. The ADP spread is wide. Eloy Jimenez (ADP 37) is another indication that White Sox are white hot in many draft circles. George Springer (55) and Lourdes Gurriel (84) are part of a seemingly all-in Blue Jays squad. We still don’t know if their games will be played in Toronto or Dunedin (or elsewhere!) to start the season. Charlie Blackmon (ADP 91) is getting older, but we know he will play home contests in Denver.
Some teams will be filling out the position with one or more of the seven full-timers from the (PW) asset grouping. The talent here can be had anywhere from pick 129 to 376. The BABSian theory of interchangeability is on striking display here. Wil Myers and Mike Yazstremski lead the way in ADP, likely based on their strong 2020 seasons. Dylan Carlson carries the prospect pedigree and upside to a 148 ADP. After that it’s Ian Happ, Kyle Schwarber, Kole Calhoun and Joc Pederson. Septuplets? Time will tell.
The group with (SB) as their lone asset will likely be a hotly contested area to mine for speed. Full timers Victor Robles and Nick Solak can be had near picks 159 and 169, respectively. Mid-timers Manuel Margot, Adam Eaton and Kevin Kiermaier range anywhere from pick 156 to end-game selections.
A few players whose BABS assets indicate they might prove to be value plays at current draft prices:
Leody Taveras (p,S+) ADP 202 – If he can secure full-time at-bats, look out!
David Peralta (s,AV) 275 – Boring veteran can still contribute.
Franchy Cordero (PW,s) 409 – Free Franchy!
Sam Hilliard (P+,s|-A) 384 – Low cost dart throw in Colorado? Yes, please.
Jacoby Jones (p,s) 416 – Not sexy, but throw him on the bench and see what happens.
Raimel Tapia (SB,AV|-P) 266 – This is the late speed profile we long for.
NOTES: The chart above may vary slightly from the latest database update which was run after this analysis was written. To engage with other readers on this topic, head over to the Reader Forums. If you have a question that would be best answered by one of our experts and benefit everyone, submit it on our Contact Page and put MAILBAG in the Subject Line.