2021 High Risk Players Going Too High

by Pat Cloghessy

This is becoming a theme in 2021… it is increasingly difficult to find instances where the market is in stark opposition to BABS. This speaks well of the drafting public, but casts a bit of gloom on what has always been a boon to BABS’ competitive edge. 

Take batters, for example. A simple ADP sort leaves at the top the most asset-laden hitters with few liabilities. At present, there are 33 bats in the top 50 ADP. Of those 33, BABS identifies just five with elevated injury liabilities. And all of them are of the (-inj) variety, which isn’t even the riskiest kind. In addition, there are five in the 50-bat cohort who come equipped with experience (e or EX) liabilities.

Congrats everyone, and (sigh) thanks for making the game more competitive. But BABS doesn’t quit. There is still plenty to digest.

Here is a sampling of hitters with elevated liability profiles who are inside the top 50 [ADP]:

Cody Bellinger (PW,s,AV) [16]: Belly has slid from a Top 5 choice in 2020 down to the early 2nd round. Those are first round assets.  That doesn’t necessarily mean he belongs in the first round instead of someone else. Seriously, look at the quality talent up top. His injury liability (-inj) would normally give BABS pause. She wouldn’t scoff at moving Bellinger down from a top five pick headed into 2021. And that’s exactly what we’re seeing. Whether purposefully or by happenstance, it appears that Bellinger is slotted appropriately. 

Bo Bichette (p,s,AV) [23]: This guy is long on talent, short on experience (EX). He also has some injury history (-inj). Last year, Bichette (pictured) was identified by BABS as a player the market had maybe undervalued. Has the pendulum swung the other way in 2021? Spending a 2nd round pick on a player with 340 career plate appearances and injury liability might not be the best use of resources. Yes, the upside is tantalizing. FOMO is an addictive drug, and has a tendency to overheat the market.  

Kyle Tucker (PW,SB) [31]: Like Bichette, another skilled bat with fewer than 400 career plate appearances (EX). In both Bichette and Tucker’s cases, we’d be paying a price for performance that has never been achieved. Call it the Hope Premium. Or the FOMO Fare. Either way, it will cost a bundle to find out. The limited supply of speed does throw a wrench into this analysis, as it has come to carry such great weight. So it’s not blasphemous to pay the going rate, though it could be a bumpy ride. Hey, if Tucker can tap into the batting average upside he showed in the minors, his asset mix could be on par with Trevor Story. If.

Luis Robert (PW,S+) [36]: Another young phenom with a big league experience shortfall (EX). Robert also comes with a glaring (-A) on his liabilities side. This draws concern because you cannot steal first base. That’s not to say that Robert can’t adjust to opposing pitchers. It’s that he hasn’t proven the ability to do it yet. The counter-argument might be: he hasn’t had a large enough sample to prove it either way. And that is true. It’s also precisely the point of the (EX) liability. To warn against the difference between betting on a player’s ceiling and the realization that he may be far off from reaching it. Don’t get it twisted, be excited about Robert. BABS is. Just beware the trappings.

There are also 16 starting pitchers in the [ADP] top 50. Again, few of which would be considered “high risk”. Of these, only three injury liabilities crop up. There are two smaller (e) experience question marks, and a few negative regression candidates. On the whole, the elite SP look primed to stay that way. 

Max Scherzer (ER,K+) [30]: He is showing his age now (AG), and with that his injury history (inj-) is magnified. Scherzer will be looking to make 30 starts for the first time since 2018. There are valid concerns. After what was essentially a year off in 2020, what can we expect? He’s a year older, and historically, the innings jump that will be required (not just of Scherzer, but all SP) to reach mid- or full-time status is something that franchises have gone out of their way to avoid. This year will put those convictions to the test. It’s within reason to ponder the possibility that zero SP may reach 200 IP this season. Given his liabilities, Scherzer’s battle appears more uphill than most of the other top tier starters.

Brandon Woodruff (ER,KK) [35] presents with significant injury questions (INJ). In a career that spans four years, Woodruff has never gone deeper than 121 innings pitched in a season (e). In fact, he’s eclipsed 100 IP just once. The skills are elite, but we know how this goes with starting pitchers. They are great until they aren’t. And often, that “aren’t” is due to injury and can last a while. 

Zac Gallen (e,KK) [40] is one of the hottest names on the SP market. His biggest asset may be the (F) playing time projection. His sub-3.00 career ERA is no doubt a big factor in sending his draft price up near elite territory. But among his highly-drafted SP peers, the pitching effectiveness (e) skill falls a bit short. He also has another (e) on the liability side. He’s thrown a total of 152 innings in The Show. 

Blake Snell (ER,K+) [49] is a fascinating case study. His BABS assets are elite, as in Top 5. However, his health (INJ) is a huge obstacle. He is also leaving the Tampa Bay pitching factory, and changing leagues to boot. So many questions, but the market seems to be all over it. It is hard to take one’s eye off of (ER,K+) though. So maybe, just maybe, Snellzilla is a bit underrated. Look at the two names ahead of him on this list, ask yourself or (more importantly) ask BABS who she’d rather have. 

Trevor Bauer (ER,KK) and Yu Darvish (ER,KK), the top two pitchers in the NL last season have changed teams. Both arrive in what should be more pitcher-friendly home parks, but they are human. Their lives will have to adjust (Nw). Also, both are coming off career years, so a bit of regression (Rg-) is likely. They could both regress some and still be elite, which is why they are being selected as the 4th and 5th SP taken overall.