2021 Deeep sleepers

Admittedly, the 2020 season was filled with anomalies, however, every season sees its fair share: First-rounders go belly up. Roles carved in concrete get passed along to other players. And undrafted afterthoughts end up having an impact on the standings.

I always like to scan the ADPs for high-skilled players who are so blocked on depth charts that their name never comes up on Draft Day. Last year, Rowdy Tellez (PW,a) had an ADP of 543 but earned $13 behind eight HRs and a .283 average in 113 AB. Ryan Mountcastle’s (p,AV) 458 ADP had him undrafted in most mixed leagues, but he also earned $13. Chris Taylor (p,SB) earned $19 on a 467 ADP. Ryan Pressly (E+,K+) earned $14 when he unexpectedly grabbed the closer’s role, but his 459 ADP had him anchored late in drafts.

BABS does a great job of identifying high skilled players. Doug Gruber has already identified a bunch within the draftable population. Here are some interesting names who are still outside the ADP 500 vicinity since the beginning of February.

Brent Suter (ER,KK) will likely spend most of his time in the middle of Brewers bullpen, but he’s been converting these skills into solid ERA/WHIP levels. The back of the rotation is not so strong that Suter couldn’t back into a nice handful of starts. His February ADP is 523.

The Indians thought well enough of Nolan Jones (PW,SB) to protect him from the Rule 5 draft. More valuable in an OBP league than standard, but there is enough skill here to merit a deep reserve pick. His ADP is 556.

Trevor May (E+,K+) is a few steps down in the closer pecking order, but he’s closed games in each of the last three seasons. With the Mets shopping both Dellin Betances and Jeurys Familia, Seth Lugo hurt and Edwin Diaz no sure thing, May’s 487 ADP looks very tempting.

When Raisel Iglesias was traded, it was little surprise to see Amir Garrett’s (ER,K+) ADP skyrocket from 428 to 336. But Sean Doolittle (KK) is the only one in that pen with true closing experience, just one year removed from a string of three straight 20-plus save seasons. Yes, there is an injury history to contend with, but an ADP of 641 (even still just 508 since the beginning of this month) seems like a free pick.

From 2008-2013, there was a player named Josh Willingham, who was always a sub-$10 buy or late round pick because of crowded depth charts, but invariably found 400 very productive ABs. That’s Asdrubal Cabrera (p,a) now, still buried at ADP 493 despite being signed by Arizona.

Jay Bruce (PW, with Rg+) signed a minor league contract with the Yankees, which would put this left-handed bat in a stadium tailor-made for his swing. His ADP is 643. That’s a 43rd round pick in a 15-team league.

Aaron Bummer (E+,KK) was in line to be the White Sox closer until Liam Hendriks was signed, and then his ADP plummeted from 386 to 502. His skills are still exemplary and severely discounted due solely to his role. I’d speculate.

After saving 39 games and looking to become the next big dominant closer, Corey Knebel (e,KK) had Tommy John surgery and has been trying to work his way back ever since. He is now with the Dodgers but behind the vulnerable Kenley Jansen; small signs indicate that the 29-year-old still might have something left. His ADP is 554.

Forget my Mets fandom – CitiField is just a great park for pitchers; similar to its predecessor, Shea Stadium. But I liken it to what I say about Coors Field – it can’t turn bad hitters into good hitters; it turns good hitters into great hitters. CitiField can’t give life to bad-skilled pitchers, and so I was not surprised to see Rick Porcello (-E) and Michael Wacha (-E) fail last year. All of this is a long way of saying that Joey Lucchesi (k) may have better potential than his 546 ADP would indicate.

Stranger things have been known to happen, but I would not dismiss the possibility of tossing a late deep-reserve Hail Mary pass at Ryan Braun (p,AV). At ADP 719, he’s been written off, but players sometimes change their minds, especially when they see all their friends having a good time. FOMO runs strong in athletes.

You can continue this exercise yourself by scanning down the BABS charts. Once you get into the No-Timer Zone, you’ll find lots more interesting players. For 50-round draft & hold leagues, I love tucking away a few of these. You never want to throw away a pick, but there is so much speculation going on late in those drafts that it makes sense to take chances on smarter possibilities.