2021 Catchers

(Photo by Russell Lansford/Icon Sportswire)

by Doug Gruber

Here we go again…the annual quandary on what to do with the catchers. There are scarcely enough rosterable ones to satisfy 1-CA leagues. If you are in a 2-CA 15-team league, there will be at least eight catchers in lineups that possess a negative skills rating. If you need a reminder… a player with a skills liability rating is one where skills reside in the bottom 25% of either power or batting effectiveness, or both. In other words, these players will do damage to your teams. Do you really want to roster those catchers?

In the entire pool of full- or mid–time catchers, there are only 15 with at least one positive asset… four full-time and 11 mid-time. Of the 15, more than half are weighed down with injury or experience liabilities. Another seven mid-time catchers come with no assets, meaning they might not provide value, but for this catcher collection, it is more important that they won’t be a detriment to your team.

Let’s look closer at the BABS ratings for the catchers:

ADP R$ BATTER Pos Tm PT Pw Sp Av * Pk Rg Sk- Inj Ex Nw Ag Pk Rg
101 $13 Smith,Will 2 LA M P+ a *     inj- EX      
77 $15 Perez,Salvador 2 KC F PW a     inj-       Rg
35 $23 Realmuto,Jacob 20 PHI F p a              
164 $8 Murphy,Sean 2 OAK M p a *     –   EX      
259 $3 Posey,Buster 0 SF M AV              
133 $10 Grandal,Yasmani 20 CHW M PW *              
211 $5 Garver,Mitch 2 MIN M PW     INJ e      
156 $8 Varsho,Daulton o82 ARI M SB     –   EX      
574 $(4) Castro,Jason 2 HOU M P+ *     -A     Nw    
152 $9 Vazquez,Christian 2 BOS M a             Rg
165 $8 Nola,Austin 2 SD F a       EX      
284 $2 Molina,Yadier 2 STL M a     inj-       Ag  
373 $(0) Stephenson,Tyler 2 CIN P a *       EX     Rg
464 $(2) Suzuki,Kurt 2 LAA P a         Nw   Ag  
503 $(3) Mejia,Francisco 2 TAM P s   Rg INJ EX Nw    
128 $10 Contreras,Willson 20 CHC F p              
141 $9 D Arnaud,Travis 20 ATL M p             Rg
269 $3 Kelly,Carson 2 ARI M p       e      
356 $0 Ramos,Wilson 2 DET M AV     -P     Nw    
683 $(6) Astudillo,Willians 2 MIN P AV     -P INJ EX      
187 $7 McCann,James 2 NYM M         Nw Pk Rg
306 $2 Jansen,Danny 2 TOR M *   Rg   e      
328 $1 Severino,Pedro 20 BAL M       e      
340 $1 Gomes,Yan 2 WAS M              
366 $(0) Narvaez,Omar 2 MIL P *   Rg          
487 $(3) Caratini,Victor 20 SD P       e Nw Pk  
502 $(3) Barnhart,Tucker 2 CIN M *   Rg          
503 $(3) Trevino,Jose 2 TEX M       EX      
515 $(3) Knizner,Andrew 2 STL P       EX     Rg
749 $(7) McGuire,Reese 2 TOR P       EX      
181 $7 Sanchez,Gary 20 NYY M PW   Rg -A          
495 $(3) Higashioka,Kyle 2 NYY P PW     -A inj- EX     Rg
575 $(4) Zunino,Mike 2 TAM P PW   Rg -A inj-        
511 $(3) Diaz,Elias 2 COL M a     -P   e      
616 $(5) Knapp,Andrew 2 PHI P s *     -A   e      
328 $1 Murphy,Tom 0 SEA P p     -A INJ e      
670 $(6) Nottingham,Jacob 2 MIL P p     -A INJ EX      
739 $(7) Chirinos,Robinson 2 FAN P p   Rg -A         Ag  
745 $(7) Avila,Alex 2 WAS P p * Pk   -A inj-   Nw    
999 $(10) Murphy,John 2 PIT P p     -A   e      

ASSETS: PT (Playing time), Pw (Power), Sp (Speed), Av (Batting Effectiveness), * (OBP help), Pk (Park help), Rg (Regression help). LIABILITIES: Sk (Skills risk), Inj (Injury), Ex (Inexperience), Nw (New team), Pk (Park hurt), Ag (Age decline), Rg (Regression hurt)

J.T. Realmuto (p,a) is once again the first catcher off the board (and poster boy, above), but you will have to pay a steep price to get the only dual-asset, liability free backstop. But BABS has identified three other catchers with comparable or better skills, with much lower market prices, although there are some tick marks on the risk columns.

Salvador Perez (PW,a|inj-) brings both power and batting average skills, and he appears to be fully recovered from his TJS that cost him all of 2019. He is not cheap either, as his ADP is early 6th round. Available a few rounds later, BABS rates the Dodgers’ Will Smith (P+,a|inj-,EX) as the catcher with the highest skill set heading into 2021, but he also arrives laden with risks. The market leverage play at catcher could be Oakland’s Sean Murphy (p,a|EX). Available in Round 12, BABS states that Murphy has comparable power and batting skills to Realmuto, along with a reminder that his experience is fewer than 200 big league at-bats.

Of the 11 single-asset mid- and full-time catchers, four possess a batting average skill, six bring power and one demonstrates speed. The speed asset belongs to Arizona’s Dalton Varsho (SB|EX), who makes for an interesting target not only for his atypical wheels for catcher eligible players, but also for his ability to log playing time at other positions.

Buster Posey (AV) is the highest rated among those with batting effectiveness skills and makes for an intriguing selection at his current price. Within the (a) group, Austin Nola combines batting effectiveness  with projected full-time at bats, an advantageous combination for a catcher. Christian Vazquez (a) has been a consistent source of BA over the past two seasons, hitting nearly .280 over that span while also contributing 30 HRs and eight SBs. For late round value, Yadier Molina (a) can be acquired more than 100 picks after group-mates Nola and Vasquez.

In the (PW) group, Yasmani Grandal (PW) and Mitch Garver (PW|INJ,e) provide valuable power skills at the position. Garver can be obtained at a five-round discount to Grandal, but you must also budget for his liabilities.

Jason Castro (P+|-A) is reunited with the Houston Astros and BABS loves his extreme power skills. Just beware of his negative impact on your batting average. Other power sources include Carson Kelly (p|e), who BABS says has equivalent skills to classmates Wilson Contreras and Travis D’Arnaud, and can be acquired more than eight rounds later.

If you miss out on the skilled backstops and must contemplate the mid-timers who do not possess positive assets, BABS points out that there is no need to draft James McCann (-) at his market price when others in this group can be acquired virtually for free in the 20th round or beyond. Alternatively, keep an eye on veteran Kurt Suzuki (a) or rookie Tyler Stephenson (a|EX), both projected for part-time at bats, but could be a better choice than venturing into catcher wasteland, especially if their PT outlook increases.

Let’s also look at a couple of position battles, starting with the Yankees. A year ago Gary Sanchez (PW|-A) could not be trusted come playoff time as he struggled both offensively and defensively, giving way to Kyle Higashioka (PW|-A,inj-,EX) when it mattered most. BABS says Higashioka’s power skills are comparable to Sanchez, and he flashed those skills during a 3-homer game in September and added another HR in the playoffs. Higashioka could be an attractive end-game speculation.

In Tampa, Mike Zunino (PW|-A,inj-) was signed for another year, but BABS warns that his power skills come with a huge batting average risk. Meanwhile, the Rays acquired Francisco Mejia (s|INJ,EX) from the Padres in the Blake Snell trade. BABS says Mejia possesses a speed asset, while reminding us that a few years ago Mejia displayed other assets when he was considered a top catcher prospect. Could those skills melded with that Tampa magic make Mejia worth a late round flyer? It seems to be a catcher gamble worth considering versus hazarding a selection from the remaining abyss.

When it comes to catchers, remember: first do no harm. A mid-timer with negative skills and high risk may be less desirable than any usable skill in 150 AB. At least on draft day.

NOTES: The chart above may vary slightly from the latest database update which was run after this analysis was written. To engage with other readers on this topic, head over to the Reader Forums. If you have a question that would be best answered by one of our experts and benefit everyone, submit it on our Contact Page and put MAILBAG in the Subject Line.