2021 BABS Perspectives Update

by Doug Gruber

There have been several significant developments since BABS initial 2021 database release in February. Let’s take a brief look at a number of the notable ones.

BATTERS

Jarred Kelenic (PW,AV): There has been lots of talk over service time manipulation by the Mariners regarding their 21-year-old prized outfield prospect. Reports still indicate he is likely to begin the year at the minor league camp for the first month. BABS rates his skills as significant in both power and batting effectiveness, and as his playing time projections have increased, BABS has moved Kelenic (pictured) into valuable company in the same asset group as Corey Seager, Anthony Rendon, and others. He could be well worth pursuing.

C.J. Cron (P+,a) landed a minor league deal with a spring training invite to Rockies’s camp. Based on his spring performance, he has been promoted to the big-league roster and is the front-runner for the first base job. With his move to Coors, BABS has edged his power skills into the extreme category (P+,a) shared with Aaron Judge. Cron makes for an excellent target on draft day, but beware his ADP is rising rapidly, having jumped 150 places since February.

Cleveland Prospects: Cleveland started camp with first base and two outfield positions open for competition. BABS rates this trio of Indians prospects — Nolan Jones (PW,SB), Bobby Bradley (P+) and Daniel Johnson (p,s) — as having demonstrated valuable skills, which could bode well if any were to land a starting job. All three have had impressive springs, however, Bradley is the only one still in contention to head North to begin the season. All are likely to have their shot at some point this season, and a late round selection could pay off nicely.

Mitch Moreland (PW,a) landed a one-year deal with Oakland and now finds himself as the front-runner for the DH spot vacated when Khris Davis was dealt to Texas. Moreland has solidified that possibility with a strong start this spring. BABS says Moreland brings both power and batting assets, and now has projected him for more ABs. His asset group equivalents include names like Harper, Meadows, and Cruz, making Moreland an appealing late round target.

PITCHERS

Taijuan Walker (e) finds himself in a great position on the Mets, with Carlos Carrasco opening the season on the IL and  Noah Syndergaard out until at least mid- June. Walker seems locked into a rotation spot in a great venue for pitchers. With the additional innings expectation, BABS has pulled Walker back into an asset group with pitchers like Kyle Hendricks and Sean Manaea. There is potential upside from his previous (e,k) rating; he could provide late round profit at his market price.

James Paxton (e,K+) returns to Seattle after a lost 2020 season where injuries limited him to five woeful starts. But BABS reminds us Paxton was a skillful pitcher in 2019 when he won 15 games to go with a 29 percent strikeout rate. His move away from Yankee Stadium to the more favorable T-Mobile Park helps elevate him to the elite (e,K+) group. Reports from Mariners camp say Paxton has been free of health issues and is on track for Opening Day. Could this be some Seattle deja-vu?

Framber Valdez (ER,k) was an asset class twin of Hyun-Jin Ryu, and his ADP had jumped into the top 100 picks in early drafts. An unfortunate finger injury has put his 2021 season in doubt. While he has avoided season-ending surgery, his drastically reduced playing time projections have pushed his ranking way down the BABS spreadsheet, relegating him to a speculative deep league stash.

Trevor Rogers (e,KK) seems to have positioned himself for the final Marlins rotation spot. A year ago, he flashed his skills in a couple of impressive starts but also took his share of lumps. BABS loves his skill set, and has now bumped his innings projections, resulting a move into an asset group with nine other well-known arms who are all picks in the top 10 rounds. The price for Rogers is after Round 20 but is rising.

Amir Garrett’s (ER,K+,sv-) saves projections have increased, as he appears to be the favorite to secure the Reds Cincinnati closer duties. And why not, as Garrett already possesses elite skills, which BABS says should give him the edge over his Cincinnati competition.

Anthony Bass (e,sv-) has moved to the front of the Marlins closer competition. While BABS has bumped his saves projection, she warns that his skills set is not closer-worthy. Having the job sometimes provides fantasy value but proceed cautiously and be prepared for alternate sources for saves.

Cubs Rotation. Chicago’s starting five seems to be solidifying and BABS has bumped up the innings projections accordingly. Outside of Kyle Hendricks (e), BABS rates the rest of the rotation as all (-EK) skills liabilities. Found within this bleakest of all pitching asset groups are Zach Davies, Alec Mills, Jake Arietta, and Trevor Williams. Avoid all at the draft table, and for Cubs fans, let’s hope the wind is blowing in at Wrigley this year.