2021 Asset Group Analysis – (PW,a)
(Photo by /Icon Sportswire)
by Doug Gruber
Asset groups are a key component of the BABS system. They are our means to assemble players with comparable skills profiles and then review how the marketplace ranks them. The philosophy is that, if several players are comparable, they should be valued at about the same level. As described in Chapter 2 of The BABS Project 3.0, that’s not always the case. Here is where we can uncover opportunities to build profit into our rosters.
(PW,a)
| ADP | R$ | BATTER | Pos | Tm | PT | Pw | Sp | Av | * | Pk | Rg | Sk | Inj | Ex | Nw | Pk | Ag | Rg | |
| 20 | $28 | Harper,Bryce | 9 | PHI | F | PW | a | * | |||||||||||
| 62 | $17 | Voit,Luke | 1 | NYY | F | PW | a | inj- | |||||||||||
| 78 | $15 | Perez,Salvador | 2 | KC | F | PW | a | inj- | Rg | ||||||||||
| 95 | $13 | Meadows,Austin | 7 | TAM | F | PW | a | inj- | e | ||||||||||
| 98 | $13 | Goldschmidt,Paul | 3 | STL | F | PW | a | * | |||||||||||
| 98 | $13 | Cruz,Nelson | 0 | MIN | F | PW | a | * | Ag | Rg | |||||||||
| 121 | $11 | Moustakas,Mike | 4 | CIN | F | PW | a | ||||||||||||
| 123 | $11 | Stanton,Giancarlo | 0 | NYY | F | PW | a | * | INJ | ||||||||||
| 380 | $(0) | Belt,Brandon | 3 | SF | F | PW | a | * | INJ | Rg | |||||||||
| 599 | $(5) | Moreland,Mitch | 3 | OAK | M | PW | a | Nw | Pk |
The (PW,a) group is an attention-grabbing collection of hitters with a wide market outlook…ranging from pick 20 to way outside Round 30. It is also a group with several injury and other liability concerns, though nearly all are projected for full-time action.
Bryce Harper will cost you a mid-second round pick. He is coming off a very solid season and has rarely missed a game for three straight years.
Yankees 1Bman Luke Voit went from 4 HRs in the second half of 2019 to a league-leading 22 HRs in 2020, while also hitting .277. BABS likes the overall skills growth, but it’s possible that the “Yankees premium” is inflating Voit’s asking price.
Salvador Perez showed little effects from his TJS and was his old self, delivering 11 HRs and a stellar .333 BA. This skill set within the shallow catcher pool could be worth attention in the 6th round. In 2019, Austin Meadows reached 33/89/.291 en route to a $26 campaign. COVID delayed his 2020 start, and then a September oblique injury impacted his performance. He’s an intriguing pick in the seventh round.
Paul Goldschmidt hit over .300, but bone spurs in his elbow zapped some of his power. Nelson Cruz continues to defy Mother Nature, slugging 16 home runs and also batting over .300. Both could have huge upside at their ADPs.
As we move further down the group, we start to find players whose market price may be discounted too heavily. Make no mistake, BABS knows full well that Giancarlo Stanton (pictured) remains an enormous injury risk, having essentially missed the past two seasons. BABS also appreciates that the two seasons prior, Stanton averaged 700 PAs, hit a total of 97 HRs, along with a .273 BA. Never has his ADP been so low! Mike Moustakas had three consecutive $18 campaigns, buoyed by an average of 35 home runs. Lingering injuries impacted him in 2020, but BABS sees no loss of skill; his ADP is purely a steep hedge against risk.
The end game offers two 1Bmen who can be acquired for virtually nothing. Brandon Belt quietly put together an $18 season last year, hitting 9 HRs and batting .309. Belt is greatly undervalued, although off-season surgery on his heel could delay the start of his season. And Mitch Moreland will likely see his ADP start to rise with his signing by Oakland; he’s always been a useful piece and seems like an easy late-roster add, even in a tougher ballpark.