2021 Asset Group Analysis – (p,AV)

by Doug Gruber

by Doug Gruber

Asset groups are a key component of the BABS system. They are our means to assemble players with comparable skills profiles and then review how the marketplace ranks them. The philosophy is that, if several players are comparable, they should be valued at about the same level. As described in Chapter 2 of The BABS Project 3.0, that’s not always the case. Here is where we can uncover opportunities to build profit into our rosters.

 

(p,AV)
ADP R$ BATTER Pos Tm PT Pw Sp Av * Pk Rg Sk- Inj Ex Nw Ag Pk Rg
21 $28 Machado,Manny 3 SDP F p AV
34 $23 Bogaerts,Xander S BOS F p AV Rg-
34 $23 Jimenez,Eloy O CWS F p AV e
37 $22 Abreu,Jose 1 CWS F p AV Rg-
42 $21 Bregman,Alex 3 HOU F p AV * Rg+ inj-
42 $21 Devers,Rafael 3 BOS F p AV
46 $20 Ozuna,Marcell DO ATL F p AV * Rg-
51 $19 Springer,George O TOR F p AV * Nw
85 $14 Gurriel,Lourdes O TOR F p AV Rg-
89 $14 Blackmon,Charlie O COL F p AV
102 $12 Rizzo,Anthony 1 CHC F p AV * Rg+
109 $12 Rosario,Eddie O CLE F p AV Nw
114 $11 Smith,Dominic 1O NYM F p AV e Rg-
211 $5 Winker,Jesse D CIN F p AV *
372 $0 Flores,Wilmer D SFG P p AV
697 $(6) Braun,Ryan O FA P p AV Rg+ Ag

As we look at the group overall, two positive qualities stand out. First, it is void of any major liabilities…which probably plays into the second trait, which is that nearly every player is projected for full-time at bats.Players from this asset group bring a nice blend of power and significant batting skills.

The top eight are being selected anywhere from the 2nd to the 4th round. Recency bias has pushed players in different directions versus their acquisition cost a year ago. Receiving a boost upward are players like Manny Machado, Jose Abreu and Eloy Jimenez. Conversely, those who struggled a year ago have fallen, such as Alex Bregman and Rafael Devers. BABS believes the eight are all strong players but are overpriced given that several bats in higher ranked asset groups are readily available at this ADP range.

The next group of five may hit that “sweet spot” where the market and BABS are in general agreement. Lourdes Gurriel is going slightly ahead of the others here, coming off a productive season in Toronto, and with the prospects of hitting again in the middle of this potent line up. Anthony Rizzo and Charlie Blackmon (pictured), after down seasons by their historical norms, have seen their ADPs fall to their lowest levels in recent years. Eddie Rosario seems attractive here now that he has landed a secure spot in Cleveland, while Dominic Smith is coming off a mini breakout, but the market’s view of playing time uncertainty without a DH perhaps provides a value opportunity.

Moving down, BABS identifies Jesse Winker as the potential best buy from this group. Winker could return a sizable profit based on a 15th round investment. And despite his part-time label, BABS tells us to not overlook Wilmer Flores, as is currently the case in most drafts. He has the skills, and when provided a full-time role a year ago he demonstrated what he can deliver in terms of power and average. True, without a DH spot, playing time for Flores may be harder to come by, however, BABS constantly reminds us to draft the skills, skills, skills.

Unless maybe it is Ryan Braun, who has elected to hang his cleats in the garage and keep his skills at home. Unless he changes his mind. It would not be the first time a player has done it, and boy what a windfall it would be for a 50th round stash in a draft & hold league.