2021 Asset Group Analysis – (P+)
(Photo by Quinn Harris/Icon Sportswire)
by Doug Gruber
Asset groups are a key component of the BABS system. They are our means to assemble players with comparable skills profiles and then review how the marketplace ranks them. The philosophy is that, if several players are comparable, they should be valued at about the same level. As described in Chapter 2 of The BABS Project 3.0, that’s not always the case. Here is where we can uncover opportunities to build profit into our rosters.
(P+)
| ADP | R$ | BATTER | Pos | Tm | PT | Pw | Sp | Av | * | Pk | Rg | Sk | Inj | Ex | Nw | Pk | Ag | Rg | |
| 58 | $18 | Alonso,Pete | 3 | NYM | F | P+ | e | ||||||||||||
| 75 | $15 | Hernandez,Teoscar | 9 | TOR | F | P+ | Rg | ||||||||||||
| 90 | $14 | Olson,Matt | 3 | OAK | F | P+ | * | Rg | |||||||||||
| 145 | $9 | Soler,Jorge | 0 | KC | F | P+ | * | ||||||||||||
| 168 | $8 | Hoskins,Rhys | 3 | PHI | F | P+ | * | INJ | |||||||||||
| 345 | $1 | Rios,Edwin | 5 | LA | P | P+ | Rg | EX |
The BABS (P+) rating indicates Extreme Power, reserved for those players who are in the top 10% for that skill. While ratings do not correlate directly to counting stats, (P+) tells us that these players have the potential to smack 35-40 home runs, with upside for more. Let’s look closer at these six sluggers and also touch on how best to fit these players into your roster construction.
A year ago, fresh off his NL home run title, Pete Alonso was being selected in the early third round. Perhaps the market looked at his .260 BA and felt he could provide more than just bombs. BABS was skeptical, which proved correct in his .231 average during the shortened 2020 season. She sees him likewise in 2021.
Teoscar Hernandez hit 26 home runs in less than a full season in 2019, most of which came after he returned from a demotion to the minors. BABS identified him then as a late round extreme power source. He did not disappoint, hitting 16 home runs despite missing time with an oblique strain in September. The power outburst is supported with elite barrel and hard contact data, although the .289 BA is likely to regress.
Matt Olson’s (pictured) market value appears to be discounted based on recency bias related to his sub-.200 BA in 2020. But all his power metrics remain elite. Olson missed the first 30 games of 2019, but since that time he has hit 50 home runs in 700 AB.
The largest potential discounts in this group can be found with Jorge Soler and Rhys Hoskins. Like Alonso, Soler has home run hardware of his own, clubbing 48 to lead the AL in 2019. However, his 2020 follow up was impacted by lingering injuries, and has triggered his price to fall. BABS smiles at such a scenario. Similarly, the 27-year-old Hoskins, who has averaged an XBH every eight at bats in his young career, has fallen to the 12th round due to concerns over his off-season elbow procedure. He has been medically cleared to begin spring training, but monitor his status for what should be a cheap source of extreme power.
The last member of the group is Dodger rookie Edwin Rios, who emerged last year hitting eight home runs in 83 ABs, several being of the light tower variety. Seemingly blocked again at the corner infield spots, at his ADP price, a power bat of this quality could return a profit even with mid-time at bats.