2021 Asset Group Analysis – (ER,KK)
(Photo by Brian Rothmuller/Icon Sportswire)
by Doug Gruber
Asset groups are a key component of the BABS system. They are our means to assemble players with comparable skills profiles and then review how the marketplace ranks them. The philosophy is that, if several players are comparable, they should be valued at about the same level. As described in Chapter 2 of The BABS Project 3.0, that’s not always the case. Here is where we can uncover opportunities to build profit into our rosters.
(ER,KK)
| ADP | R$ | PITCHER | Pos | Tm | PT | Er | K | Sv | Pk | Rg | Sk | Inj | Ex | Nw | Pk | Ag | Rg | |
| 16 | $30 | Bauer,Trevor | SP | LA | F | ER | KK | Nw | Rg | |||||||||
| 18 | $29 | Darvish,Yu | SP | SD | M | ER | KK | Nw | Rg | |||||||||
| 20 | $28 | Buehler,Walker | SP | LA | M | ER | KK | |||||||||||
| 23 | $27 | Nola,Aaron | SP | PHI | F | ER | KK | |||||||||||
| 28 | $25 | Castillo,Luis | SP | CIN | M | ER | KK | |||||||||||
| 34 | $23 | Kershaw,Clayton | SP | LA | M | ER | KK | Rg | ||||||||||
| 35 | $23 | Woodruff,Brandon | SP | MIL | M | ER | KK | INJ | e | |||||||||
| 48 | $20 | Maeda,Kenta | SP | MIN | M | ER | KK | |||||||||||
| 67 | $16 | Carrasco,Carlos | SP | NYM | M | ER | KK | Pk+ | Nw | |||||||||
| 73 | $15 | Strasburg,Stephen | SP | WAS | M | ER | KK | Rg | INJ | |||||||||
| 590 | $(4) | Suter,Brent | rp | MIL | P | ER | KK | INJ | e |
It is hard to be inconspicuous when you are in a large group of starting pitchers who own significant skills in both pitching effectiveness and strikeouts. The best we can wish for is a few rounds of price discount.
For the SPs projected for full- or mid-time innings, there are only 18 who have an ER or higher rating… and 10 of them reside here. Overall, BABS places these pitchers in the Top 30-40 of all players listed in BABS Master Spreadsheet. You need one of these arms!
The top five from this group are all being selected before the end of Round 2. While pricey, these are anchor-worthy studs with a near spotless liability side of the ledger.
Trevor Bauer increased his already stellar spin rates, helping him soar through 11 outstanding starts in Cincy. Now he joins the World Champions. A year ago, Walker Buehler (pictured) managed just eight starts and 36 innings while dealing with a chronic blister issue during the regular season. For both Dodgers, the issue will be how many innings can we count on in their crowded rotation, on a team well known for controlling workload in the regular season. Despite what Bauer claims he’s willing to do.
Yu Darvish’s takes his impressive arsenal to a substantially more pitcher-friendly venue. Owners will have to decide if his past two injury-free seasons indicate that his chronic arm issues are now behind him.
With a huge jump in his K-rate to 33%, Aaron Nola had an impressive campaign for the Phillies. His xFIP indicated that he maybe was better than his 3.28/1.08 ratios. He also has been durable, having logged the second most innings over the last three seasons amongst all starters. And Luis Castillo had a season as good as anyone in this asset group, while making continued strides in his K-BB rate which reached 22% in 2020.
Yes, we know the rap on Clayton Kershaw in recent years has been his volume of innings. But even 150 IP will have value in today’s environment, especially if they come with his 2020 ratios of 2.16/0.84 and more than a strikeout per inning. Brandon Woodruff certainly has the stuff and had his best year yet in 2020, taking the bump for all 13 of his starts, registering a WHIP under 1.00 and increasing his K rate to 31%. But his liability marks remind us that he has topped 100 innings only once in his first four years.
The rest of the group brings more profit potential. Last year, had Bieber not enjoyed such an amazing season, Kenta Maeda might have taken home the Cy Young, leading the AL in WHIP (0.75) along with a stellar 28% K-BB rate. A second round value in Round 4? It’s possible.
Or maybe because BABS wears Mets blue and orange, she is saving her excitement for newcomer Carlos Carrasco in the fifth round. Cookie showed no effects in 2020 from his bout with leukemia the year prior, recording a 2.91 ERA in 12 starts along with a 29% K rate. Carrasco joins a significantly improved Mets line up with the added park benefits of moving from Progressive Field to Citi Field.
Stephen Strasburg missed almost all of 2020 when a nerve issue in his hand eventually turned into season ending carpal tunnel surgery. In his 11-year career, he has made 30 starts just three times. The unusual injury means the Nationals will certainly manage his workload, but when healthy season like 2019 could look like this: 33 starts, 209 IPs, 251 Ks, 18 Ws, and ratios of 3.32/1.04. The ultimate high risk/high reward.
Wait – Brent Suter? How did he get into this group? Suter has produced a WHIP under 1.00 and more than a strikeout per inning over the past two seasons. Innings, injury, and experience are clear risks, but Suter did make 18 starts in 2018. His pitch mix, low-lined by a sub-90mph fastball, can get exposed with more innings so we’ll probably never see 150 IP. But he’s not necessarily a short-reliever either, and even 100 IP with these peripherals can be valuable, and not just in deep leagues. That innings upside is what has pushed him to (P)art-time, and out of the (N)o-time group that has pitchers like Chris Martin, Seth Lugo and Tyler Duffey.