2021 Asset Group Analysis – (e,k)

(Photo by Cody Glenn/Icon Sportswire)

by Doug Gruber

Asset groups are a key component of the BABS system. They are our means to assemble players with comparable skills profiles and then review how the marketplace ranks them. The philosophy is that, if several players are comparable, they should be valued at about the same level. As described in Chapter 2 of The BABS Project 3.0, that’s not always the case. Here is where we can uncover opportunities to build profit into our rosters.

(e,k)
ADP R$ PITCHER Pos Tm PT Er K Sv * Pk Rg Sk- Inj Ex Nw Ag Pk Rg
54 $18 Lynn,Lance SP CWS F e k Nw
69 $16 Fried,Max SP ATL M e k e Rg-
69 $16 Plesac,Zach SP CLE M e k e Rg-
85 $14 Berrios,Jose SP MIN F e k
96 $13 Wheeler,Zack SP PHI F e k
103 $12 Luzardo,Jesus SP OAK M e k EX
109 $12 Greinke,Zack SP HOU M e k Ag
110 $11 Paddack,Chris SP SDP M e k Rg+ e
130 $10 Lopez,Pablo SP MIA M e k e
134 $10 Sanchez,Sixto SP MIA M e k EX
171 $7 Marquez,German SP COL M e k
198 $6 Eflin,Zach SP PHI M e k
202 $5 Kluber,Corey SP NYY M e k INJ
233 $4 Gonsolin,Tony SP LAD P e k EX Rg-
238 $4 Eovaldi,Nathan SP BOS M e k Rg+ inj-
291 $2 Walker,Taijuan SP NYM M e k INJ Nw Rg-
436 $(1) Severino,Luis SP NYY P e k INJ
465 $(2) Hill,Rich SP TBR P e k INJ Nw Ag Rg-
518 $(3) Stripling,Ross SP TOR P e k Rg+ INJ
698 $(6) Norris,Daniel rp DET P e k

BABS lists only 45 full- or mid–time starting pitchers who provide positive assets in both pitching effectiveness and strikeouts. Fifteen of those reside here, which may provide your best opportunity to round out your staff with arms who will help you in both ratios and strikeouts.

As BABS evaluates fair value for pitchers of this skill capacity, she lands in the Round 11-13 range. That assessment makes the first five in this group unappealing, as each are being drafted in the top 100 picks. BABS states these five have been pushed well above their expected contributions.

The next handful include four up-and-coming pitchers (BABS speak: Experience risk) along with the veteran Zack Greinke, all of whom are gone by the end of Round 8. While Jesus Luzardo (pictured) and Sixto Sanchez are popular FOMO candidates, BABS points us instead to pitchers in higher ranked groups who are available at these prices.

Which brings us to the most attractive location in this asset group. Two pitchers — German Marquez and Zach Eflin. Both are liability free and generally available from picks 170-200. Yes, BABS is well versed where Marquez pitches half of his games, but that is already factored into his skills rating. Marquez’s resume includes a season with nearly 200 innings, ratios of 3.77/1.20 and a 21 percent K-BB rate. He posted similar numbers in 13 starts in 2020.

Eflin’s skills metrics indicate better numbers than his 2020 ERA and WHIP, boding well for his outlook. His K-rate was also an elite 29 percent. BABS thinks Eflin is a bargain at this price.

The remainder of the (e,k) group all carry major risk, but at this stage of the draft, it may the place where you reach for a higher ceiling starter. The Yankees were confident enough in Corey Kluber to sign him to a hefty contract, but the market has discounted him to beyond round 15. He could return a handsome profit if healthy. Nathan Eovaldi could do similar. And the market has recently backed away from Tony Gonsolin as an already congested accumulation of Dodger starting pitchers become even more crowded. But we all know there will be stretches of games where Gonsolin gets his opportunities, as the Dodgers manage innings in preparation for October.

Looking for a long shot? Both Rich Hill and Ross Stripling are going undrafted, yet during their careers have delivered solid numbers. They might be worth a dart throw in 2021.