2020 Shortstops

(Photo by William Purnell/Icon Sportswire)

by Doug Gruber

The shortstop collection for 2020 is loaded with top talents and prices to match. The position is also stacked with extreme or significant speed skills. Surprisingly, however, is that this year’s shortstops pool is not nearly as deep as you might have presumed and comes crammed full of injury risk.

From a market perspective, the position is also highly splintered. Among the draftable pool, there are only five asset groups that are even three players deep. If you are looking for leverage opportunities, there are very few here, and most are in the lesser skilled groups.

BABS says there are only 12 shortstops who provide two or more assets, and their values are expensive…8 of the 12 are being selected in the 1st three rounds of early drafts. Making it more challenging, only three of the 12 come with a clean slate on the liability side.

Let’s look closer at the 2020 shortstop list:

ASSETS

LIABILITIES

ADP

Shortstops

Pos

Inj

$29

Tatis Jr.,Fernando

S+

INJ

$35

Turner,Trea

WAS

S+

inj-

$33

Story,Trevor

COL

$15

Bichette,Bo

TOR

$37

Lindor,Francisco

CLE

inj-

$13

Anderson,Tim

CHW

inj-

$22

Mondesi,Adalberto

S+

INJ

$22

Baez,Javier

CHC

inj-

$22

Bogaerts,Xander

BOS

153

Seager,Corey

INJ

234

Berti,Jon

6o85

MIA

S+

-P

INJ

$25

Torres,Gleyber

NYY

$14

Correa,Carlos

HOU

INJ

608

$(5)

Straw,Myles

HOU

S+

-P

$14

Semien,Marcus

OAK

152

Polanco,Jorge

MIN

inj-

210

Gregorius,Didi

PHI

INJ

653

$(6)

Camargo,Johan

ATL

187

Segura,Jean

PHI

-P

196

Newman,Kevin

PIT

-P

inj-

344

Simmons,Andrelton

LAA

-P

INJ

293

Goodrum,Niko

6o47

DET

inj-

192

DeJong,Paul

STL

306

Kieboom,Carter

WAS

740

$(7)

Beckham,Tim

SEA

130

$10

Rosario,Amed

NYM

-P

128

$10

Andrus,Elvis

TEX

-P

inj-

706

$(6)

Moore,Dylan

o67

SEA

-A

384

$(1)

Hoerner,Nico

CHC

-P

524

$(4)

Rojas,Miguel

MIA

-P

inj-

568

$(4)

Iglesias,Jose

BAL

-P

253

Swanson,Dansby

ATL

inj-

289

Adames,Willy

TAM

310

Urias,Luis

MIL

inj-

365

$(0)

Galvis,Freddy

CIN

375

$(0)

Ahmed,Nick

ARI

595

$(5)

Crawford,Brandon

745

$(7)

Mercer,Jordy

FAA

INJ

623

$(5)

Castro,Willi

DET

-P

717

$(7)

Martin,Richie

BAL

-PA

749

$(7)

Gonzalez,Erik

PIT

-PA

INJ

508

$(3)

Crawford,J.P.

SEA

-PA

inj-

557

$(4)

Arcia,Orlando

MIL

-PA

ASSETS: PT (Playing time), Pw (Power), Sp (Speed), Av (Batting Effectiveness), * (OBP help), Pk (Park help), Rg (Regression help). LIABILITIES: Sk (Skills risk), Inj (Injury), Ex (Inexperience), Nw (New team), Pk (Park hurt), Ag (Age decline), Rg (Regression hurt)

At the top of the shortstop asset groups is Fernando Tatis Jr. (PW,S+,AV|INJ,EX), who had a fabulous half season flashing five category tools. In 372 PAs in his rookie season, Tatis Jr. delivered 22/53/.317 with 16 steals. Also flashing bright is BABS’ warnings about investing your top pick in a potential star who carts both significant injury and experience risks.

Trea Turner (S+,AV|inj-) earned over $30 last season despite missing the first seven weeks with a broken finger, and being hampered at the plate thereafter. BABS like the extreme speed which Turner possesses, and he has averaged more than 40 steals for the past three season, while also hitting .298 in 2019.

Rockies SS Trevor Story (PW,SB,a) brings a triple asset skill set and no liabilities, which has resulted in two consecutive outstanding seasons of production. BABS loves this profile for a potential round one selection. Two-year average: 36 HRs, 97 RBIs, .293 BA, 25 steals and 100 runs, with back-to-back years of 656 PAs.

The other shortstop who is being selected in Round 1 is Francisco Lindor (p,s,AV|inj-), another triple asset performer who carries moderate injury risk having missed a month of action at the beginning of last season. Lindor has averaged 700 PAs over the past four campaigns, which has contributed to >$30 per season value over that 4-year period.

In between Story and Lindor in the asset groupings is Toronto’s Bo Bichette (p,SB,AV|EX) who also brings valuable assets in all three offensive categories. Bichette carries experience risk given his 200 MLB plate appearances, but his hard-hit and speed metrics were on display upon his call-up. A 5-6 round investment could be a high risk, high ceiling wager.

The next three asset classes are single player groups containing Tim Anderson (pictured), Adelberto Mondesi and Javier Baez. Mondesi (S+|inj-) brings the rare extreme speed asset but he also carries a moderate injury liability. His 43 bags from a year ago in only 443 PAs are enticing…you will need to grab him by the third round. Also going in the 3^rd, Baez (p,s,a|inj-) brings moderate skills across all three hitting categories, as well as memories of his 34/111/.290 line in 2018. BABS says that Anderson (SB,AV) may be the best market value of this trio as he brings significant skills in both speed and batting effectiveness but his acquisition price is a more affordable 7th round. BABS does warn of batting average regression from his league leading .333 batting title, but may still return profit at his 96 ADP.

A pair of two-player asset groups offers market leverage opportunities, although both plays come with injury risk. In the (p,AV) group, Xander Bogaerts with his skills and clean liability ledger requires a market price in the mid third round. The Dodgers’ Corey Seager possesses comparable skills and can be obtained seven rounds later…if you can absorb the significant injury threat. A similar situation exists in the (p) asset group where Gleyber Torres is priced as a second-round selection while similar skilled, but riskier, Carlos Correa is available six rounds later.

The Marlins Jon Berti is an interesting shortstop option. Of all the dual asset or higher shortstops, Berti comes with the lowest market price (15th round) along with multi-position eligibility, but he also carries the full bag of major liabilities at (-P,INJ,EX). Proceed with extreme caution.

In prior seasons, more shortstops would have been considered as double asset contributors. However, BABS has refined her approach for 2020 by showing that, even for counting stats, players who are in the bottom 25 percent of a skill are burdens to our fantasy rosters. For example, hitters such as Jean Segura (s,AV|-P), Amed Rosario (SB,a|-P) and Elvis Andrus (s,a|-P,inj-) may all bring positive assets in both speed and batting effectiveness, but the harm incurred from their lack of power skills can no longer be ignored. Owners should plan accordingly, but achievement of minimum power targets likely cannot be achieved with players who possess -P ratings.

The remainder of the shortstop group offers very little in the way of significant skills. Owners who miss out on the top 12 shortstop options will find that their next best options are much less attractive. Aside from the previously mentioned dual-asset players who also carry liabilities in power production, all that remains are a handful of full-timers who offer moderate single assets. Some examples with ADPs beyond round 10 include Jorge Polanco (a|inj-), Paul DeJong (p) and Didi Gregorius (a|INJ).

In the end game, unfortunately the shortstop position is devoid of no-timers with significant assets. No help here.

To summarize, BABS says be aggressive when rostering your shortstop for 2020. There are several highly skilled players at this position, but they require an early round investment or prioritizing one of the few multi-asset players available at or after the third round. After the top 12, the skilled shortstop pool dries up quickly. Don’t get caught unprepared.

NOTES: The chart above may vary slightly from the latest database update which was run after this analysis was written. To engage with other readers on this topic, head over to the Reader Forums. If you have a question that would be best answered by one of our experts and benefit everyone, submit it on our Contact Page and put MAILBAG in the Subject Line.