2020 Relief Pitchers
(Photograph by Julian Avram/Icon Sportswire)
by Doug Gruber
What to do about saves? Not long ago, closers who achieved 40 saves were common. For fantasy owners, a viable strategy was to target two reliable closers and count on 70-80 saves, or more. Not any longer. Those with 30-plus are dwindling as well, as the number of 30-save closers has been cut in half in just the past 5 years. Here are some recent data:
2017: Colome, Jansen and Holland over 40; Osuna, Knebel and Rodney at 39.
2018: Diaz, Davis and Kimbrel over 40; Treinen and Jansen close behind at 38.
2019: Only Yates at 41; only 3 others with 35 or more…Osuna, Hader and Chapman.
Of note, there have not been repeat performers for the recent 40+ saves guys, and only Osuna and Jansen were mentioned here more than once. We have also seen a similar falling off for those between 20-29 saves. The cumulative saves total for the top 20 closers fell by another 30 saves last year vs. the prior season. As bullpen roles continue to shift, these declining saves trends are unlikely to change.
In the BABS spreadsheets, the assets section for pitchers includes a column for saves. Rather than this asset being a “skill” it is more of a statistical projection based on roles and opportunities…Significant saves (SV) are those likely to get 30 plus saves and Moderate saves (sv-) are those likely to get 10 to 29 saves. BABS casts a wide net, which seems appropriate given the new age of closer volatility.
The following list includes all the leading saves candidates, plus other bullpen arms who have valuable dual-asset skill sets:
| ASSETS | LIABILITIES | ||||||||||||||||||
| ADP | R$ | Relievers | Pos | Tm | PT | Er | K | Sv | * | Pk | Rg | Sk | Inj | Ex | Nw | Pk | Ag | Rg | |
| 65 | $17 | Hader,Joshua | rp | MIL | E+ | K+ | SV | ||||||||||||
| 80 | $15 | Yates,Kirby | rp | SD | E+ | K+ | SV | Rg | |||||||||||
| 87 | $14 | Chapman,Aroldis | rp | NYY | E+ | K+ | SV | ||||||||||||
| 135 | $10 | Giles,Kenneth | rp | TOR | E+ | K+ | SV | Rg | |||||||||||
| 421 | -$1 | Betances,Dellin | rp | NYM | E+ | K+ | Pk | Rg | INJ | Nw | |||||||||
| 437 | -$2 | Pressly,Ryan | rp | HOU | E+ | K+ | inj- | ||||||||||||
| 122 | $11 | Rogers,Taylor | rp | MIN | E+ | KK | SV | ||||||||||||
| 119 | $11 | Hand,Brad | rp | CLE | ER | K+ | SV | ||||||||||||
| 129 | $10 | Jansen,Kenley | rp | LA | ER | K+ | SV | ||||||||||||
| 146 | $9 | Neris,Hector | rp | PHI | ER | K+ | SV | ||||||||||||
| 112 | $12 | Hendriks,Liam | rp | OAK | ER | K+ | sv- | Rg | |||||||||||
| 127 | $10 | Diaz,Edwin | rp | NYM | ER | K+ | sv- | Rg | |||||||||||
| 142 | $9 | Smith,Will | rp | ATL | ER | K+ | sv- | Nw | |||||||||||
| 164 | $8 | Pagan,Emilio | rp | TAM | ER | K+ | sv- | Rg | |||||||||||
| 171 | $7 | Leclerc,Jose | rp | TEX | ER | K+ | sv- | ||||||||||||
| 142 | $9 | Kimbrel,Craig | rp | CHC | e | K+ | SV | Rg | inj- | ||||||||||
| 562 | -$4 | Miller,Andrew | rp | STL | e | K+ | sv- | Rg | |||||||||||
| 251 | $4 | Anderson,Nick | rp | TAM | ER | K+ | Rg | EX | |||||||||||
| 490 | -$3 | Knebel,Corey | rp | MIL | ER | K+ | INJ | ||||||||||||
| 554 | -$4 | Barnes,Matt | rp | BOS | ER | K+ | Rg | ||||||||||||
| 616 | -$5 | Green,Chad | rp | NYY | ER | K+ | Rg | e | |||||||||||
| 704 | -$6 | Kahnle,Thomas | rp | NYY | ER | K+ | Rg | ||||||||||||
| 747 | -$7 | Adams,Austin L | rp | SEA | ER | K+ | Rg | EX | |||||||||||
| 92 | $13 | Osuna,Roberto | rp | HOU | ER | KK | SV | ||||||||||||
| 174 | $7 | Workman,Brandon | rp | BOS | ER | KK | SV | Rg | |||||||||||
| 213 | $5 | Gallegos,Giovanny | rp | STL | ER | KK | sv- | e | Rg | ||||||||||
| 225 | $5 | Kela,Keone | rp | PIT | ER | KK | sv- | INJ | Rg | ||||||||||
| 335 | $1 | Lugo,Seth | rp | NYM | ER | KK | sv- | ||||||||||||
| 181 | $7 | Bradley,Archie | rp | ARI | ER | k | SV | ||||||||||||
| 418 | -$1 | James,Joshua | rp | HOU | e | K+ | Rg | inj- | e | ||||||||||
| 502 | -$3 | Karinchak,James | rp | CLE | e | K+ | EX | ||||||||||||
| 533 | -$4 | Munoz,Andres | rp | SD | e | K+ | EX | ||||||||||||
| 586 | -$5 | Ottavino,Adam | rp | NYY | e | K+ | Rg | ||||||||||||
| 671 | -$6 | Poche,Colin | rp | TAM | e | K+ | Rg | EX | |||||||||||
| 750 | -$7 | Evans,Demarcus | rp | TEX | e | K+ | EX | ||||||||||||
| 751 | -$7 | Altavilla,Dan | rp | SEA | e | K+ | INJ | e | |||||||||||
| 150 | $9 | Iglesias,Raisel | rp | CIN | e | KK | SV | ||||||||||||
| 204 | $6 | Doolittle,Sean | rp | WAS | e | KK | sv- | inj- | |||||||||||
| 336 | $1 | Givens,Mychal | rp | BAL | e | KK | sv- | Rg | |||||||||||
| 509 | -$3 | Castillo,Diego | rp | TAM | ER | KK | EX | ||||||||||||
| 552 | -$4 | Ginkel,Kevin | rp | ARI | ER | KK | EX | Rg | |||||||||||
| 567 | -$4 | Harris,Will | rp | WAS | ER | KK | Nw | Rg | |||||||||||
| 632 | -$5 | Montero,Rafael | rp | TEX | ER | KK | e | ||||||||||||
| 697 | -$6 | Martin,Christopher | rp | ATL | ER | KK | Rg | e | Nw | ||||||||||
| 746 | -$7 | Kittredge,Andrew | rp | TAM | ER | KK | EX | ||||||||||||
| 999 | -$10 | Williams,Devin | rp | MIL | ER | KK | EX | ||||||||||||
| 163 | $8 | Colome,Alexander | rp | CHW | e | k | SV | Rg | |||||||||||
| 169 | $8 | Robles,Hansel | rp | LAA | e | k | SV | ||||||||||||
| 247 | $4 | Oberg,Scott | rp | COL | e | k | sv- | inj- | |||||||||||
| 567 | -$4 | Greene,Shane | rp | ATL | e | k | sv- | Rg | |||||||||||
| 518 | -$3 | Clase,Emmanuel | rp | CLE | ER | k | EX | Nw | |||||||||||
| 559 | -$4 | Bummer,Aaron | rp | CHW | ER | k | e | Rg | |||||||||||
| 570 | -$4 | Britton,Zack | rp | NYY | ER | k | inj- | ||||||||||||
| 676 | -$6 | Hicks,Jordan | rp | STL | ER | k | INJ | e | |||||||||||
| 750 | -$7 | Smith,Joe | rp | HOU | ER | k | INJ | Nw | Ag | Rg | |||||||||
| 999 | -$10 | Grotz,Zac | rp | SEA | ER | k | EX | ||||||||||||
| 394 | -$1 | Treinen,Blake | rp | LA | e | KK | inj- | Nw | |||||||||||
| 562 | -$4 | May,Trevor | rp | MIN | e | KK | |||||||||||||
| 583 | -$5 | Middleton,Keynan | rp | LAA | e | KK | INJ | e | Rg | ||||||||||
| 588 | -$5 | Buttrey,Ty | rp | LAA | e | KK | e | ||||||||||||
| 604 | -$5 | Dominguez,Seranthony | rp | PHI | e | KK | INJ | e | |||||||||||
| 605 | -$5 | Stephenson,Robert | rp | CIN | e | KK | e | ||||||||||||
| 607 | -$5 | Alvarado,Jose | rp | TAM | e | KK | INJ | e | |||||||||||
| 640 | -$6 | Jackson,Luke | rp | ATL | e | KK | Rg | ||||||||||||
| 659 | -$6 | Duffey,Tyler | rp | MIN | e | KK | |||||||||||||
| 690 | -$6 | McHugh,Collin | rp | FAA | e | KK | INJ | ||||||||||||
| 690 | -$6 | Strop,Pedro | rp | CIN | e | KK | Rg | inj- | |||||||||||
| 710 | -$7 | Feliz,Michael | rp | PIT | e | KK | |||||||||||||
| 720 | -$7 | Brebbia,John | rp | STL | e | KK | |||||||||||||
| 730 | -$7 | Kelly,Joe | rp | LA | e | KK | Rg | ||||||||||||
| 730 | -$7 | Soria,Joakim | rp | OAK | e | KK | Ag | ||||||||||||
| 739 | -$7 | Drake,Oliver | rp | TAM | e | KK | Rg | ||||||||||||
| 745 | -$7 | Wilson,Justin | rp | NYM | e | KK | INJ | Rg | |||||||||||
| 746 | -$7 | Taylor,Josh | rp | BOS | e | KK | EX | ||||||||||||
| 748 | -$7 | Fernandez,Junior | rp | STL | e | KK | Rg | EX | |||||||||||
| 748 | -$7 | Kelley,Shawn | rp | FAA | e | KK | inj- | Ag | |||||||||||
| 749 | -$7 | Chafin,Andrew | rp | ARI | e | KK | Rg | ||||||||||||
| 749 | -$7 | Scott,Tanner | rp | BAL | e | KK | e | ||||||||||||
| 999 | -$10 | Bednar,David | rp | SD | e | KK | EX | ||||||||||||
| 999 | -$10 | Brach,Brad | rp | NYM | e | KK | |||||||||||||
| 999 | -$10 | Garcia,Edgar | rp | PHI | e | KK | EX | ||||||||||||
| 999 | -$10 | Gerber,Joey | rp | SEA | e | KK | EX | ||||||||||||
| 999 | -$10 | Maton,Phil | rp | CLE | e | KK | e | ||||||||||||
| 234 | $4 | Melancon,Mark | rp | ATL | ER | sv- | |||||||||||||
| 697 | -$6 | Hernandez,Darwinzon | rp | BOS | K+ | Rg | EX | ||||||||||||
| 700 | -$6 | Rainey,Tanner | rp | WAS | K+ | Rg | EX | ||||||||||||
| 751 | -$7 | Wingenter,Trey | rp | SD | K+ | Rg | EX | ||||||||||||
| 999 | -$10 | Markel,Parker | rp | LAA | K+ | EX | Nw | ||||||||||||
| 221 | $5 | Jimenez,Joe | rp | DET | KK | sv- | Rg | e | |||||||||||
| 429 | -$2 | Magill,Matthew | rp | SEA | KK | sv- | inj- | e | |||||||||||
| 472 | -$3 | Lorenzen,Michael | rp | CIN | e | k | |||||||||||||
| 472 | -$3 | Lorenzen,Michael | rp | CIN | e | k | |||||||||||||
| 527 | -$4 | Graterol,Brusdar | rp | MIN | e | k | EX | ||||||||||||
| 575 | -$4 | Strahm,Matt | rp | SD | e | k | e | ||||||||||||
| 624 | -$5 | Wick,Rowan | rp | CHC | e | k | EX | Rg | |||||||||||
| 646 | -$6 | Cishek,Steve | rp | CHW | e | k | Nw | Rg | |||||||||||
| 665 | -$6 | Petit,Yusmeiro | rp | OAK | e | k | Rg | ||||||||||||
| 751 | -$7 | Brigham,Jeff | rp | MIA | e | k | EX | ||||||||||||
| 751 | -$7 | Martin,Brett | rp | TEX | e | k | Rg | EX | |||||||||||
| 751 | -$7 | Schreiber,John | rp | DET | e | k | EX | ||||||||||||
| 999 | -$10 | Davis,Austin | rp | PHI | e | k | EX | ||||||||||||
| 999 | -$10 | DuRapau,Montana | rp | PIT | e | k | EX | ||||||||||||
| 999 | -$10 | Reed,Cody | rp | CIN | e | k | inj- | EX | |||||||||||
| 999 | -$10 | Roe,Chaz | rp | TAM | e | k | INJ | ||||||||||||
| 999 | -$10 | Stashak,Cody | rp | MIN | e | k | EX | ||||||||||||
| 199 | $6 | Kennedy,Ian | rp | KC | k | SV | |||||||||||||
| 329 | $1 | Hudson,Daniel | rp | WAS | k | sv- | Nw | Rg | |||||||||||
| 463 | -$2 | Diaz,Jairo | rp | COL | k | sv- | e | ||||||||||||
| 566 | -$4 | Watson,Tony | rp | SF | k | sv- | |||||||||||||
ASSETS: PT (Playing time), Er (Pitching Effectiveness), K (Strikeouts), Sv (Saves potential), Pk (Park help), Rg (Regression help). LIABILITIES: Sk (Skills risk), Inj (Injury), Ex (Inexperience), Nw (New team), Pk (Park hurt), Ag (Age decline), Rg (Regression hurt)
BABS has identified only 16 relievers who currently can be considered decent bets for 30 saves. Almost all are blessed with elite skills, which makes them largely interchangeable. There are another 20 who are in line for at least 10 saves, but their saves outlook is less clear.
Some teams have more than one potential saves source listed, adding to the uncertainty, such as in Atlanta with Wil Smith (ER,K+,sv-|inj-), Mark Melancon (ER,k,sv-) and Shane Greene (e,k,sv-) as well as in Washington with Sean Doolittle (e,KK,sv-|inj-) and World Series hero Daniel Hudson (k,sv-).
BABS has identified four closers in the highest rated relief pitcher group (E+,K+,SV), extreme skills in both pitching effectiveness and strikeouts who are well positioned to earn 30 or more saves. The acquisition price is high, although the market has discounted Ken Giles (E+K+,SV) more than 50 picks after the others, creating an opportunity (pictured).
The next asset classes for closers have nearly identical and impressive skill sets, and are substitutable with the (E+,K+,SV) class. Taylor Rodgers (E+,KK,SV), Brad Hand (ER,K+,SV), Kenley Jansen (ER,K+,SV) and Hector Neris (ER,K+,SV), and all are being drafted in the Round 9-10 range.
A quintet of equally skilled arms, with a lower projected saves outlook, make up the (ER,K+,sv-) group, and also make attractive targets. Of this five, the market is less bullish on Emilio Pagan (ER,K+,sv-) and Jose Leclerc (ER,K+,sv-), who are generally available in rounds 11 or 12. Even greater markdowns can be found with Brandon Workman (ER,KK,SV) and Keone Kela (ER,KK,sv-|INJ).
Surprise closers emerge every year from highly skilled asset groups, but were not known to have a path to the 9th inning role. Here are a few notables from last year along with their 2019 pre-season BABS rating:
Taylor Rogers (ER,k) 30 saves
Hector Neris (ER,K+) 28 saves
Liam Hendriks (ER,KK) 25 saves
Luke Jackson (ER,KK) 18 saves
Scan through this 2020 pre-season list and you will find many high-quality relief pitcher arms who are currently projected for fewer than 10 saves (i.e., do not have a SV or sv- asset). This year’s surprise saves sources could be names like Nick Anderson or Matt Barnes from the (ER,K+) group. James Karinchak from the (e,K+) class. Or perhaps Kevin Ginkel or Rafael Montero out of the (ER,KK) arms. Or others.
NOTES: The chart above may vary slightly from the latest database update which was run after this analysis was written. To engage with other readers on this topic, head over to the Reader Forums. If you have a question that would be best answered by one of our experts and benefit everyone, submit it on our Contact Page and put MAILBAG in the Subject Line.