2020 Player History Scans : March 4

The BABS database provides historical scans of each player, going back to 2014. These scans not only chart their statistical output but also how BABS has rated their performance. The player’s marketplace valuation for each season – ADPs and AAVs – is also charted for the past three years.

This treatment often reveals some underlying trends that the raw statistics fail to discover. These Player History Scans look at some of the most interesting players where BABS might see things a little bit differently from the public narrative.

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The Narrative: After several mediocre years to begin his career, Bauer put together his first All-Star season when he delivered a 2.21 ERA, 1.09 WHIP and struck out 221 batters in 175 innings in 2018. The market took notice and elevated Bauer to a second-round selection last year. However, Bauer’s 2019 season was disappointing, especially during his 10 starts after being traded to Cincinnati where his ERA soared to over 6.00, while giving up 12 home runs in just 56 innings. For this upcoming season, fantasy players have pushed him down into the 5-6 round range, as he currently is the 24th SP off the board.

BABS Take: BABS has always recognized Bauer’s ability to generate strikeouts, and after his 2018 season, BABS rated Bauer amongst the elite starting pitching arms, with a rating of (ER,KK) going into last season. Despite his subpar 2019 stats, BABS still sees a skill set largely intact, as Bauer’s 2020 rating has only moved downward slightly to (e,KK), paired with a liability free ledger. Bauer is also projected for a full-time workload (>180 IP) which is becoming rarer and more valuable in today’s game. In fact, there are only 10 full time starting pitchers listed in asset groups higher than Bauer’s. As such, BABS thinks Bauer could have a bounce back year and return a profit at his current market price.

The narrative: Castellanos (PW,AV) is a nice player whose power stats have always underperformed relative to metrics such as hard contact rate and expected home runs. He is a 3rd OF at best.

BABS take: Castellanos’ trend of actual vs. expected HR, while disappointing on the surface, could be construed as extremely encouraging. The last three seasons:

2017 – 26 HR/33 xHR (PW,a)

2018 – 23 HR/35 xHR (PW,AV)

2019 – 27 HR/40 xHR (PW,AV)

Nick’s BABS assets have remained constant in the power department, while the expected output continues to rise. This disparity between actual and skill-deserved home runs can be at least partially blamed on home games played in Comerica Park. From 2017-19, Comerica has played to a +5% (above league average) HR advantage for RHB. Over that same span, Castellanos’ new home, Great American Ballpark was +18% for RHB. Add in the +16% for LHB at home in Cincinnati (it was -8% in DET), and the ~60% of batted balls  that Nick hits to center and right field have a greater chance of leaving the yard. Castellanos’ ADP has dropped after two straight seasons of expectations being higher than results. The buying opportunity is there, but you might need to bump him up a round or two to get him. His ADP since February 7 has risen to 97. BABS sees value even at that price.

The Narrative: Nearly every day we read another article about the aging curve in Major League Baseball and the profound effect it has on hitter productivity as players start to reach their mid-to-late 30s. But Nelson Cruz says, “Not me!” Cruz, who will turn 40 during this season, has generated the following home run numbers over his last six seasons …40, 44, 43, 39, 37 and 41. He has been a consistent $20-$30 player throughout his age 34 and above seasons. Last year, in fact, may have been his best season as he delivered an OPS of 1.031 to go with a slash line of 41/108/.311 in only 454 plate appearances, as wrist issues cost him about 30 games. Owners who selected Cruz at his ADP 100 were handsomely rewarded. For the 2020 season the market again is discounting Cruz to an average ADP of 90, but often he remains available well past the 100th selection.

BABS Take: BABS has always recognized the attractive skills of Cruz and this year is no exception as BABS places Cruz in the (PW,AV) asset group. For comparison, others in this asset group include Nolan Arenado and Anthony Rendon, who are both being drafted within the top two rounds. While BABS reminds us that Cruz is still a candidate for age liability as well as some negative regression, she sees little other reason to think that Cruz won’t again outperform his market price. Cruz is in a great position hitting in the middle of the powerful Twins line up and he remains a very reliable three category beast, even at age 40.

The narrative: Unable to escape his reputation as a volatile reliever, Giles (E+,K+,SV) is being selected as a 2nd or even 3rd tier closer. 

BABS take: Ken Giles has earned the ire of his detractors with two past seasons of ugly surface stats. Each of the two seasons with 4.00+ ERAs also show xFIPs of at least a run and a half lower. Giles’ blowups were largely the result of bad luck, not poor skill. And we are in the business of selecting the highest skilled players. If his name weren’t Ken Giles, he’d be mentioned alongside the first three closers off the board this season. Josh Hader, Kirby Yates and Aroldis Chapman all have something in common with our self-punching friend: identical asset profiles. While this doesn’t mean they are identical players, it does mean that Giles stands to approximate the statistics of players selected at least four rounds ahead of him. 

The narrative: Gray delivered tons of profit in 2019. He is a borderline top-25 starting pitcher heading into 2020.

BABS take: Last year was, by any measure, Gray’s most productive season since his 3rd place Cy Young finish in 2015. In 2019, Gray posted a career high 29 percent strikeout rate (previous best over a full season was 22.6 percent in 2017). He also threw to his lowest xFIP since 2014, with a fastball velocity as high as ever. 

A repeat would put Gray in an asset group alongside Buehler, Strasburg and Bieber. BABS  won’t go there, projecting (e,k) for 2020 instead of the (ER,KK) assets that underpinned the resurgent 2019 season. Injury history and inconsistency should give pause to those thinking of pushing Sonny’s market price and paying a premium.  Still, Gray is forecast for his best skills since the salad days of 2015, and that (F) playing time projection sparkles at ADP 104. 

The Narrative: Marte has spent his entire professional career in the Pirates organization, including the last eight years at the major league level. During his tenure, Marte has been generally under-appreciated by the fantasy market. He has earned $30 or more for four of the last five seasons. This past year was no exception. His 25 stolen bases were somewhat below his normal base path production but was offset with a career high 23 home runs to go with a beneficial .295 BA. This winter Marte was traded to Arizona; nevertheless, despite his past prolific fantasy production and a move to a probable contender, Marte’s market value continues to hover in the Round 2-3 range.

BABS Take: Marte has always been recognized by BABS as having significant skills in both speed and batting effectiveness. For this season, BABS has bumped Marte into one of the highest ranked asset groups (S+,AV), sharing that class with Trea Turner, who is once again a market consensus first round pick. BABS views Marte as a dependable value at his current market price, especially in today’s environment where both speed and batting average are scarcer than power. Further, BABS believes Marte’s relocation to Arizona and away from the rebuilding Pirates should only enhance his fantasy production. Invest!

The narrative: After popping 30 HR for the first time in 2019, the 26 year-old has the tools to produce a stat line worthy of a top 40ish bat.

BABS take: More like top 30ish! Olson (P+,a) is one of only six projected full-timers that can boast an asset mix of extreme power and some level of batting effectiveness. The other names might be familiar: Mike Trout, Cody Bellinger, J.D. Martinez, Aaron Judge and Yordan Alvarez. The first four have sub-30 ADPs. It could be argued that the only thing holding Alvarez from a loftier average pick (currently 40) is his DH-only eligibility. 

Olson’s ADP is currently 60, though there is reason to believe he will be more expensive by the time you draft. In the last month, his average draft position is 56. Olson’s power skills have remained in the top 10 percent of the league for three straight seasons, which in the context of the homer-happy baseball, is notable. The injury liability appears to be in reference to Olson’s hamate surgery last spring, from which he returned no apparent loss of pop. As the final power/batting effectiveness bat being selected, Olson is primed to deliver value at his draft price, even if it rises a little higher before opening day. 

The Narrative: Fantasy players will incessantly reminisce about Stanton’s 2017 season in Miami where he smashed 59 home runs, drove in 132, scored 123 runs while recording a .281 batting average. Following that season, Stanton moved to hitter-friendly Yankee Stadium, causing the market to skyrocket his value to the first round. Despite an injury free season, Stanton’s 2018 production was a more modest 38/100/.266, which was good, but not first round value. His price for 2019 fell slightly to a second-round selection, but he proceeded to ruin many a fantasy team with an endless string of injuries, and was able to log just 72 plate appearances, along with a paltry three home runs. Despite his horrific 2019 season, the current market has only pushed Stanton down two rounds, perhaps holding out hope that he somehow has another 2017 season within him.

BABS Take: BABS has always recognized Stanton’s prodigious power capabilities; however, she has reduced Stanton to the PW category coming off his injury filled season, which adversely impacted his power skills. As such BABS reminds us that there are numerous other power bats in higher ranked asset groups who possess additional assets in either speed or batting effectiveness. And BABS reiterates the obvious with an INJ mark on his liability ledger, amid recent news of yet another injury which has his 2020 Opening Day status in jeopardy. Resist the temptation and invest your 4th round selection elsewhere.

The Narrative: Back in 2016 during his age 23 campaign, Thor put together a remarkable All-Star season. In 183 innings, he struck out 218 hitters to go with ratios of 2.60/1.15, supported by a major league leading 2.29 FIP. Since then, the market has looked to Syndergaard as being a fantasy ace. His owners have been hugely disappointed… 2017 was an injury-ruined season while 2018 was a respectable year but he was limited to 154 innings.  Last season he logged a career high 197 IP, however his fantasy stats were some of the worst of his career (4.28 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 24 home runs allowed). For 2020 the market has downgraded him to some extent, with Syndergaard’s ADP currently sitting in the 5th round.

BABS Take: Coming out of that 2016 All-Star year, BABS was a full believer in Syndergaard’s exceptional skill set. Since then, his BABS asset ratings have declined, and his risks have remained a constant due to his continued proclivity for injury. In this year’s pre-season ratings, BABS has placed Syndergaard in the (e,k|inj-) asset group. While he remains a double-asset arm, Syndergaard’s current skills rating are a far cry from the significant or extreme skills that he once flashed. Based on this asset group placement, BABS thinks that his 5th round price is a bit too steep, along with a warning that Syndergaard has yet to string together back-to-back full seasons.