2020 Player History Scans: February 19

The BABS database provides historical scans of each player, going back to 2014. These scans not only chart their statistical output but also how BABS has rated their performance. The player’s marketplace valuation for each season – ADPs and AAVs – is also charted for the past three years.

This treatment often reveals some underlying trends that the raw statistics fail to discover. These Player History Scans look at some of the most interesting players where BABS might see things a little bit differently from the public narrative.

Charlie Blackmon
Team: Eligible: o9
ASSETS LIABILITIES MARKET
Year Team Pos AB HR SB Avg OBP PT Pw Sp Av Pk Rg Sk Inj Ex Nw Pk Ag Rg ADP $$
2014 COL o9 593 19 28 288 335 F p s AV
2015 COL o9 614 17 43 287 347 F p S+ AV
2016 COL o9 578 29 17 324 381 F PW A+
2017 COL o9 644 37 14 331 399 F PW s A+ inj- 16 $31
2018 COL o9 626 29 12 291 358 F p s AV 8 $37
2019 COL o9 580 32 2 314 364 F p A+ 27 $26
PROJ p COL o9 F p AV 46 $20

The Narrative: Blackmon has been one of the most valuable five-category fantasy players over the last several seasons, with 2017 being his pinnacle when he delivered $42 for his owners. The last two years have seen a falloff, including 2019 when he earned just $27 for a 2nd round price tag. Chief culprit was his running game…during 2019 his SBs virtually dried up, perhaps related to nagging leg injuries. Blackmon enters his age 34 season with his lowest draft position in many years, falling to the beginning of the 4th round.

BABS Take: In the past, BABS has placed Blackmon within some of her highest rated asset groups. However, BABS has begun to see an erosion of skills, not just in speed, but also in power and batting effectiveness. For 2020 BABS rates Blackmon as (p,AV), which is his lowest ever asset class. With this downgrade in skills, BABS says that Blackmon is now basically the same player as Jose Abreu, Josh Bell and Corey Seager, players who can all be selected several rounds after Blackmon. As such, despite a history of being a BABS favorite, for 2020 BABS regrettably says that an investment in Blackmon at ADP 46 is too high of a price to pay.

Kris Bryant
Team: Eligible: 5o97
ASSETS LIABILITIES MARKET
Year Team Pos AB HR SB Avg OBP PT Pw Sp Av Pk Rg Sk Inj Ex Nw Pk Ag Rg ADP $$
2015 CHC 5o97 559 26 13 275 369 F P+ s
2016 CHC 5o97 603 39 8 292 385 F P+ AV
2017 CHC 5o97 549 29 7 295 409 F P+ AV 5 $42
2018 CHC 5o97 389 13 2 272 374 M PW a 15 $31
2019 CHC 5o97 543 31 4 282 382 F p s a INJ 33 $24
PROJ p CHC 5o97 F p a inj- 57 $18

The Narrative: Since his first two seasons (NL ROY, NL MVP), Bryant (pictured) has been consistently underwhelming. He has failed to reach expectations and his draft price has been much too high. 

BABS Take: His asset profile is in a three-year decline (P+,PW,p) and (AV,a,a). The past two seasons in particular have been marred by nagging injuries. Bryant did spend time on the IL, but  also played through injuries for extended periods. With health, a return to (PW,a) is not impossible, but at his ADP (56), you are paying for the hope of that return. Both Eugenio Suarez and Josh Donaldson enter the season with (PW,a) and are available later. If we believe Bryant’s injuries are responsible for the deterioration of his skills, then parting with 4th or 5th rounder would seem reasonable. If not, Bryant is currently the second player picked (by ADP) from the sizable (p,a) asset group. There are numerous BABSian (p,a) lookalikes out there (Marcel Ozuna, Mike Moustakas, Brian Anderson, etc.) who cost a lot less.   

Michael Conforto
Team: Eligible: o98
ASSETS LIABILITIES MARKET
Year Team Pos AB HR SB Avg OBP PT Pw Sp Av Pk Rg Sk Inj Ex Nw Pk Ag Rg ADP $$
2015 NYM o98 174 9 0 270 335 P+ AV
2016 NYM o98 304 12 2 220 310 M PW -AV
2017 NYM o98 373 27 2 279 384 M P+ AV e 322 $1
2018 NYM o98 547 28 3 243 350 F PW INJ e 200 $6
2019 NYM o98 549 33 7 257 363 F PW a 104 $12
PROJ p NYM o98 F PW a 116 $11

The Narrative: Michael Conforto is a nice power hitter with a long injury history, which has prevented him from reaching his ceiling.

The BABS Take: Conforto (PW,a) will never be invincible, but consecutive seasons of 600+ plate appearances is superhero-worthy for a guy with his injury record. He hasn’t achieved P+ territory since BABS  had us salivating back in 2017. Still, his 33 HR in 2019 were a career high. He owns that P+ skill and hasn’t dipped below the PW level for the last 3 seasons. Say his asset ceiling is P+,a. Were he to enter that stratosphere, he’d be going toe-to-toe with Aaron Judge and Matt Olson. If he performs to his BABS projection, that’s a reasonable facsimile of Bryce Harper, only 80 picks later. In the end, the draft cost is probably below what his actual skill set represents.

David Dahl
Team: Eligible: o879
ASSETS LIABILITIES MARKET
Year Team Pos AB HR SB Avg OBP PT Pw Sp Av Pk Rg Sk Inj Ex Nw Pk Ag Rg ADP $$
2016 COL o879 222 7 5 315 359 p S+ AV
2017 COL o879 0 0 0 0 0 -AV inj- EX 98 $13
2018 COL o879 249 16 5 273 325 p a INJ EX 240 $4
2019 COL o879 374 15 4 302 353 M p AV INJ EX 70 $16
PROJ p COL o879 F PW AV Rg inj- e 148 $9

The Narrative: Dahl has been a very talented player, going back to 2012 when the Rockies made him their first-round choice out of high school. He made his Rockies major league debut in the summer of 2016, showing a combination of power and speed while hitting .315 in 63 games. Unfortunately, he fractured a rib the following spring, later followed by a back injury during rehab, forcing the Rockies to shut him down for the year. Last March when it looked like Dahl was finally healthy and was penciled in as a starting outfielder, his draft value soared as high as the 4th round. But again, he could only muster 100 games, delivering a 15/61/.302 slash line. It has taken three years of injury ruined seasons, but drafters have pushed Dahl to the 10th round or beyond for 2020.

BABS Take: BABS has been a believer in Dahl’s skills portfolio. In fact, heading into the 2017 season, Dahl was given a rating of (p,S+,AV) placing him in one of the higher BABS asset groups. The sample sizes since then have been small due to injuries, but in his 100 games a year ago BABS saw enough underlying skills to rate him for 2020 as (PW,AV), significant skills in both power and batting effectiveness. While the speed element has been missing for a few years, BABS also reminds us that Dahl previously owned those extreme speed skills.

The (PW,AV) asset class includes Nolan Arenado, Anthony Rendon and Austin Meadows… pretty elite company. BABS says you can acquire the same skill set more than 100 picks later with an investment in Dahl. A risky bet, but after round 10, it could bring substantial profit if Dahl can find a way to stay on the field for a full season.

Yu Darvish
Team: Eligible: 1
ASSETS LIABILITIES MARKET
Year Team Pos IP W Sv K ERA WHIP PT Sk K Sv Pk Rg Sk Inj Ex Nw Pk Ag Rg ADP $$
2014 TEX 1 144.3 10 0 182 3.06 1.26 M ER K+
2016 TEX 1 100.3 7 0 132 3.41 1.12 M ER K+
2017 LA 1 186.7 10 0 209 3.86 1.16 F e KK INJ 34 $23
2018 CHC 1 40 1 0 49 4.95 1.43 KK -ER inj- Nw 50 $19
2019 CHC 1 178.7 6 0 229 3.98 1.10 M e KK INJ 148 $9
PROJ p CHC 1 F e KK 65 $17

The Narrative: The huge skills upside that Darvish has always promised and occasionally displayed has been tempered by his injury history. After posting a 2.93 ERA, 0.83 WHIP over 88 IP in the second half of 2019, expectations are that maybe it’s safe to invest all-in this year.

BABS Take: That stellar second half — at a BABS level reminiscent of 2014-2015 — conveniently ignores how badly he pitched in the first half. Darvish’s liabilities profile is newly clean for the first time since 2016, but BABS remains cautious on the asset side. His (e,KK) rating — comparable to 2017 and 2019 — puts him in the same group as a range of pitchers, from Lucas Giolito to Lance Lynn, and many others. If he is able to sustain his second half levels (ER,K+), he’d be in Verlander territory, but that’s not something to bet on with his history.

Lucas Giolito
Team: Eligible: 1
ASSETS LIABILITIES MARKET
Year Team Pos IP W Sv K ERA WHIP PT Sk K Sv Pk Rg Sk Inj Ex Nw Pk Ag Rg ADP $$
2016 WAS 1 21.3 0 0 11 6.75 1.78 -ER
2017 CHW 1 45.3 3 0 34 2.38 0.95 ER EX Nw 353 $0
2018 CHW 1 173.3 10 0 125 6.13 1.48 M -ER EX 236 $4
2019 CHW 1 176.7 14 0 228 3.41 1.06 M e KK e 549 ($4)
PROJ p CHW 1 F e KK inj- 51 $19

The Narrative: Take a moment to stare at Giolito’s stat lines for 2018 and 2019. Can this even be the same pitcher? In approximately the same number of IP, Giolito added 100+ strikeouts and had his ratios move from unrosterable to elite. Giolito became the clear-cut White Sox ace, and the league noticed as he also earned his first All-Star game selection. Fantasy owners who were fortunate to pluck Giolito from the waiver wire, and hold him, were colossally rewarded. For 2020, the market is betting heavy on a repeat performance, as Giolito’s draft price is in the 3-4 round range.

BABS Take: A year ago, BABS placed Giolito in the pitcher liability (-ER) dungeon, and rightfully so, as his demonstrated “skills” up until then were frightening to say the least. But BABS took note of major strides in strike throwing, SwK %, walk rates, K/9, FIP…and Giolito continued to improve upon these skills advances throughout the year. BABS has buried the hatchet and moved Giolito to the (e,KK) asset class heading into 2020.

As BABS considers the current investment price for Giolito, she reminds us that there are other pitcher asset classes ranked higher than the (e,KK) group, which includes pitchers who are being selected after Giolito. Examples include Clayton Kershaw, Charlie Morton and Zack Greinke. Further, Giolito brings some injury risk, but perhaps more important is that his newfound skills have only been in his possession for one season. BABS applauds Giolito’s tremendous skills improvements but when owners are looking to make a third/fourth round choice, BABS says there are superior skilled arms available with a longer successful track record.

Francisco Lindor
Team: Eligible: 6
ASSETS LIABILITIES MARKET
Year Team Pos AB HR SB Avg OBP PT Pw Sp Av Pk Rg Sk Inj Ex Nw Pk Ag Rg ADP $$
2015 CLE 6 390 12 12 313 353 M p SB AV
2016 CLE 6 604 15 19 301 358 F s AV
2017 CLE 6 651 33 15 273 337 F AV 30 $24
2018 CLE 6 661 38 25 277 352 F p AV 21 $28
2019 CLE 6 598 32 22 284 335 F p s AV INJ 12 $33
PROJ p CLE 6 F p s AV inj- 8 $37

The Narrative: The face of the Indians franchise, Lindor is set to become one of the highest paid free agents following his 2021 season. With only two years of team control, Lindor has been mentioned throughout the winter in numerous trade rumors, distractions that will likely continue during his remaining days in Cleveland. The fantasy market is not dissuaded by these distractions as Lindor is currently the first shortstop off the board with an ADP of 8. And why not? Over the past three seasons Lindor has put up consistent numbers, averaging 33 home runs, 20 steals, 110 runs scored and nearly a .280 batting average.

BABS Take: While Lindor has had a market price in the top two rounds for four consecutive years, BABS has been less bullish regarding Lindor’s total skill set. BABS has always rated Lindor as significant in batting effectiveness, however she had not bought into any power and speed assets until recently. For the 2020 preseason ratings, Lindor has now earned a triple asset (p,s,AV) rating which has jumped him substantially forward in the asset class rankings versus prior seasons. But BABS still places Trea Turner, Trevor Story and rookie Bo Bichette in asset groups that are ranked higher. In addition, BABS lists both Indians teammate Jose Ramirez and Phillies catcher JT Realmuto as having comparable skills and at a lower price.

BABS says Lindor’s current (p,s,AV) grade means it is certainly possible he could post another season in line with his previous three campaigns. Even so, with an ADP of middle first round, an owner would be paying full price and then some for this stat line.

Ketel Marte
Team: ARI Eligible: o84
ASSETS LIABILITIES MARKET
Year Team Pos AB HR SB Avg OBP PT Pw Sp Av Pk Rg Sk Inj Ex Nw Pk Ag Rg ADP $$
2015 SEA o84 219 2 8 283 351 SB AV
2016 SEA o84 437 1 11 259 287 M
2017 ARI o84 223 5 3 260 345 s a inj- e Nw 344 $1
2018 ARI o84 520 14 6 260 332 F SB a e 341 $1
2019 ARI o84 569 32 10 329 389 F SB A+ 219 $5
PROJ p ARI o84 F SB AV Rg inj- 44 $21

The Narrative: Marte’s 2019 breakout was the latest step in a linear upward trend. While intriguing, it’s best to temper expectations of a HR repeat. His ADP (45) is probably about right.

The BABS Take: Right on, but the price could still be a bit too high. The uptick in HR output was driven by a combination of career bests in several underlying metrics. He hit the ball harder, in the air more, more balls in the air went out of the yard, and he solved RHP. More upward trends: Back in 2017, Marte was 271st in the league in barrels (1). In 2018, he was 150th (22). In 2019 he shot all the way up to 38th (45). His launch angles in the same three seasons: 7.2, 5.7, 11.5. Linear progress indeed. But now the most recent figures look like outliers. Can we buy into a repeat?

BABS has her doubts. She has never cast Marte as a power hitter, and he will probably need the pop in order to earn his draft slot. Unless his speed finally leads to more SB. It hasn’t thus far in his career. And while his scouted speed is an asset, statcast expresses some doubt about that. His sprint speed has tumbled down to 175th in MLB. Similar players with significant SB totals on their resumes are available later on. Think Whit Merrifield (SB,AV) and even Victor Robles (SB,a). 

Yasiel Puig
Team: Eligible: o9
ASSETS LIABILITIES MARKET
Year Team Pos AB HR SB Avg OBP PT Pw Sp Av Pk Rg Sk Inj Ex Nw Pk Ag Rg ADP $$
2014 LA o9 558 16 11 296 382 F PW s AV
2015 LA o9 282 11 3 255 322 M p
2016 LA o9 334 11 5 263 323 M
2017 LA o9 499 28 15 263 346 F p a INJ 224 $5
2018 LA o9 405 23 15 267 327 M p a 111 $12
2019 CLE o9 555 24 19 267 327 F inj- Nw 76 $15
PROJ p FAA o9 F a 124 $11

The Narrative: The Cuban Wild Horse entered this offseason as a free agent, coming off his original seven-year contract signed with the Dodgers. As of this writing he is still unsigned, but is the top-rated outfielder still available, increasing his odds that he may land a new contract soon. Blessed with great athleticism and a colorful personality, Puig has been exciting to watch but has never reached 30 home runs or 20 steals in a season. Last year following Puig’s winter trade to the Cincinnati Reds, his ADP soared to the 4-5 round range. Fantasy owners continue to believe in him as his current ADP is in the 8th round despite his uncertain landing spot for 2020.

BABS Take: BABS has never viewed Puig as a player with great baseball skills. His highest rating has been (p,a). For 2020, BABS rates Puig with a single-asset (a) designation, dropping his power skills to below league average. We could deep dive his specific power metrics to see the decline, but rather let’s just summarize by saying that 24 HRs in over 600 PAs in today’s game pushes you to below league average. The power outage was particularly noticeable when he only hit two HRs over the final two months after the trade deadline deal that sent him to the Indians.

BABS would not recommend investing a draft choice on Puig in the first eight rounds… there are numerous outfielders possessing more than one asset, some with significant skills, who are available at Puig’s current market price.

Anthony Rizzo
Team: Eligible: 3
ASSETS LIABILITIES MARKET
Year Team Pos AB HR SB Avg OBP PT Pw Sp Av Pk Rg Sk Inj Ex Nw Pk Ag Rg ADP $$
2014 CHC 3 524 32 5 286 386 F P+ AV
2015 CHC 3 586 31 17 278 387 F P+ AV
2016 CHC 3 583 32 3 292 385 F P+ AV
2017 CHC 3 572 32 10 273 392 F p AV 13 $33
2018 CHC 3 566 25 6 283 376 F p AV 25 $26
2019 CHC 3 512 27 5 293 405 F p AV 37 $22
PROJ p CHC 3 F AV 66 $17

The Narrative: Over the past few years, the Cubs’ 1Bman has been the epitome of “status quo,” hitting between 25 and 32 HRs for six straight years. A former first-rounder, his ADP has been steadily dropping, but that’s more of a reflection of the marketplace’s obsession with each year’s shiny new thing. He’s steady.

The BABS Take: The marketplace may have the right idea but for a different reason. There is value in his outward consistency, however, with the power environment surging around him, he is actually moving backwards. It’s a matter of context. Thirty HRs mean a lot less when everyone else is also doing it. The result is that Rizzo has lost his power asset in BABS’ 2020 ratings. These days, any projection for fewer than 30 HRs represents a below average impact on your team’s bottom line. His (AV) rating puts him in the company of players like David Peralta, Joey Votto, and even Vlad Guerrero, Jr. There are, in fact, 11 other full-timers with the same skill set who you can draft later, some even outside the Top 300.

Gleyber Torres
Team: NYY Eligible: 64
ASSETS LIABILITIES MARKET
Year Team Pos AB HR SB Avg OBP PT Pw Sp Av Pk Rg Sk Inj Ex Nw Pk Ag Rg ADP $$
2018 NYY 64 431 24 6 271 340 M p EX 290 $2
2019 NYY 64 546 38 5 278 337 F p a e 63 $17
PROJ p NYY 64 F p a 30 $24

The Narrative: This is one of the best young players in the game. He’s so exciting and I don’t want to be the one who passed on him. Here, take my late 2nd round pick.

The BABS Take: Hold up. Wait a minute. No doubt, the kid is special. He’s been one of the very best players at every level of his career, while simultaneously one of the youngest. However, a premium offensive pick should ideally come with an asset portfolio more robust than (p,a). The high price is based on potential. We can argue in favor of his youth, development, prodigious tools and sky-high ceiling. BABS’ rejoinder: Taking Torres in the late 2nd could make the drafter long for Javy Baez (p,s,a – ADP 41), Xander Bogaerts (p,AV – 37) or Jose Altuve (s,A+ – 33).