2020 High Risk Players Going Far Too High

by Doug Gruber

When Ron kicked off the 2020 BABS season, he talked about Fernando Tatis Jr, as the player that sits atop the BABS draft list. Tatis is very attractive as a hitter with his tri-asset (PW,S+,AV) skill set, he but also shows two significant liabilities for injury and experience as well as being a candidate for regression. When weighing the risk versus reward for Tatis, an owner can ponder the high asset ceiling and may still choose to assume that risk.

For other players, however, the trade-off may not be as favorable. It is a different value equation if the player only brings one or two assets paired against a pair of liabilities, while bearing a high market acquisition price. There comes a point where BABS says these high-risk players are just priced too high.

Let’s look at several such examples for this year’s draft.

Pictured above, Adalberto Mondesi (S+ | INJ,e) brings an extreme speed skill, which was on display a year ago when he stole 43 bases for Kansas City. He also logged more than 60 days on the IL and then played through a separated shoulder at the end of the year, an injury which reportedly is still not 100%. His stolen base potential is tantalizing, but a third-round selection for a player with shaky hitting skills and below average power, along with injury and experience concerns, is too high a risk.

In 2019, Ramon Laureano (p,s,a | inj-,e) enticed with across-the-board production, hitting 24 home runs, with 13 stolen bases and a .288 batting average before a leg injury shortened his season. BABS agreed that the skills were real, placing Laureano in a triple asset (p,s,a) group. Drafters have pushed Laureano’s market price into the 6th round, which BABS thinks is too elevated given the injury and experience concerns for a player yet to log his first full-time season.

One could describe the first 200 plate appearances for Bo Bichette (p,SB,AV | EX) as incredible as he smacked 11 home runs and hit .311 with a handful of steals. BABS believes that Bichette has a triple asset profile, albeit with small sample size warnings. And while he does not carry an official injury liability, Bichette did miss a good portion of his AAA season as well as most of September when a concussion cut his season short, without logging any official IL time. Like many hot young prospects, Bichette’s draft price has escalated to as high as the fifth round, which BABS says is too steep.

22-year old White Sox prospect Luis Robert (p,S+ | -A,EX) has yet to play his first major league game. But that has not stopped the market from paying as high as a 5th-6th round pick to acquire his services. Owners are hoping that his combination of power and extreme speed skills that were on display in the minors carries forward to Chicago. BABS reminds us about the obvious, that Robert is not only a significant experience risk but also a batting average liability as his contact rate has been well below average. Robert is a tremendous long-term prospect, but his price for 2020 is way too expensive.

Shohei Ohtani (PW,s,A | INJ,e) (e,KK | INJ,EX) is an exceptional talent, a rare two-way player in today’s game. As a batter he has shown hitting skills in all categories. As a pitcher, prior to his TJ surgery, he also exhibited solid skills in both pitching effectiveness and the ability to miss bats. It might seem that the roster flexibility of having Ohtani as both a pitcher and hitter is a valuable option. But practically speaking, outside of leagues that allow daily transactions, it is difficult to envision a scenario where Ohtani logs either enough at bats or makes enough quality starts to make a difference to your fantasy rosters. Coupled with his marks on the liability ledger for both injury and experience, BABS says a 7th round acquisition price seems one that savvy owners should let pass.

The emerging ace of the Brewers staff, Brandon Woodruff (e,KK | INJ,e) is being drafted by the 6th round. BABS likes his skill set but also reminds us of his injury history and lack of overall experience. Injuries limited Woodruff to 122 innings last season, the most he has thrown in his professional career. While he displayed talents in both pitching effectiveness and dominance, BABS says there are other starting pitchers with a longer track record who can be acquired around Woodruff’s ADP.

Jesus Luzardo (ER,k | EX) is regarded as a Can’t Miss pitching prospect for the A’s, and BABS agrees he has a worthy skill combination. For 2019, Luzardo was drafted as an upside rotation candidate, but that dream didn’t materialize as Luzardo had an injury-filled summer before a brief a cup of coffee in September. He logged 12 impressive innings (15/2 K/BB), and the market has pushed Luzardo further northward for 2020 into the 9th round. Luzardo’s experience risk, minor league injury history and an expected innings cap (Luzardo has never pitched 6 innings in a game in his professional career) makes his acquisition price too costly for this year.

Finally, Jose Altuve (s,A+ | INJ) may not seem to be a huge risk, based on his BABS profile. However, the Astros sign-stealing fiasco and their very emphatic denial that nothing transpired during 2019 has brought a whole new risk dimension that cannot be ignored. Just like players suspected of using performance-enhancing substances, it is difficult to quantify the risk associated with these recent incidents. But the old saying… “If it walks like a duck and quacks like a duck.” And while it is still unclear whether any players may face suspensions, do you really want to spend your 2nd or 3rd round draft choice on Altuve, or any of the other top Astros when it feels like there is more to come? Just saying…