2020 Firstbasemen
by Pat Cloghessy
For most of recent history, it would have been surprising to discover only five first basemen ranked in the top 70 (per ADP). The 20s begin as something of a lost generation for this position.
While prodigious power production at 1B is in short supply these days, the pool does present a few opportunities to obtain solid assets with low risk at a reasonable cost. Note the word choice: few. Depth is a problem.
Out of 22 full-time first sackers, nine are empty in the power asset column. This leaves 13 players with actual power assets (2 P+,6 PW,5 p). Rostering average or below average power skills is usually permissible while in pursuit of a category like stolen bases. Otherwise, and especially at a corner infield position, it is not advisable to make the sacrifice.
Here are the BABS ratings for first basemen who will potentially provide positive value to your team:
| ASSETS | LIABILITIES | ||||||||||||||||||
| ADP | R$ | 1Bmen | Pos | Tm | PT | Pw | Sp | Av | * | Pk | Rg | Sk | Inj | Ex | Nw | Pk | Ag | Rg | |
| 16 | $31 | Freeman,Freddie | 3 | ATL | F | PW | A+ | * | inj- | ||||||||||
| 67 | $17 | Olson,Matt | 3 | OAK | F | P+ | a | inj- | |||||||||||
| 385 | $(1) | White,Evan | 3 | SEA | P | SB | AV | EX | |||||||||||
| 337 | $1 | Kendrick,Howie | 34 | WAS | M | A+ | inj- | Ag | Rg | ||||||||||
| 30 | $24 | Alonso,Pete | 3 | NYM | F | P+ | * | e | |||||||||||
| 466 | $(2) | Thames,Eric | 3 | WAS | M | P+ | * | Nw | |||||||||||
| 67 | $17 | Goldschmidt,Paul | 3 | STL | F | PW | a | * | |||||||||||
| 194 | $6 | Voit,Luke | 30 | NYY | F | PW | a | * | inj- | e | |||||||||
| 194 | $6 | Encarnacion,Edwin | 30 | CHW | F | PW | a | * | inj- | Nw | Ag | ||||||||
| 448 | $(2) | Tellez,Rowdy | 30 | TOR | M | PW | a | EX | |||||||||||
| 479 | $(3) | Choi,Ji-Man | 3 | TAM | M | PW | a | * | e | ||||||||||
| 78 | $15 | Abreu,Jose | 30 | CHW | F | p | AV | ||||||||||||
| 90 | $14 | Bell,Josh | 3 | PIT | F | p | AV | * | |||||||||||
| 264 | $3 | Votto,Joey | 3 | CIN | F | p | AV | * | Ag | ||||||||||
| 144 | $9 | Santana,Carlos | 30 | CLE | F | p | a | * | |||||||||||
| 268 | $3 | Cron,C.J. | 3 | DET | F | p | a | inj- | Nw | ||||||||||
| 456 | $(2) | Smith,Dominic | 3o7 | NYM | P | p | a | INJ | e | ||||||||||
| 597 | $(5) | Ford,Mike | 3 | NYY | P | p | a | * | EX | ||||||||||
| 619 | $(5) | Moreland,Mitch | 3 | BOS | M | p | a | INJ | |||||||||||
| 651 | $(6) | Zimmerman,Ryan | 3 | WAS | P | p | a | INJ | |||||||||||
| 999 | $(10) | Shaw,Chris | 3 | SF | P | p | a | EX | |||||||||||
| 62 | $17 | Rizzo,Anthony | 3 | CHC | F | AV | * | ||||||||||||
| 117 | $11 | Gurriel,Yulieski | 35 | HOU | F | AV | Ag | ||||||||||||
| 237 | $4 | Murphy,Daniel | 3 | COL | F | AV | inj- | ||||||||||||
| 115 | $11 | Hoskins,Rhys | 3 | PHI | F | PW | * | ||||||||||||
| 453 | $(2) | Belt,Brandon | 3 | SF | F | PW | * | ||||||||||||
| 533 | $(4) | Cron,Kevin | 3 | ARI | M | PW | EX | ||||||||||||
| 221 | $5 | Hosmer,Eric | 3 | SD | F | a | |||||||||||||
| 270 | $3 | Lowe,Nate | 3 | TAM | P | a | * | EX | |||||||||||
| 370 | $(0) | Cooper,Garrett | 3o9 | MIA | P | a | INJ | e | Rg | ||||||||||
| 422 | $(1) | Cabrera,Miguel | 3 | DET | M | a | Ag | ||||||||||||
| 573 | $(4) | Beaty,Matt | 3o7 | LA | P | a | EX | ||||||||||||
| 644 | $(6) | Osuna,Jose | 3o9 | PIT | P | a | inj- | e | |||||||||||
| 203 | $6 | Walker,Christian | 3 | ARI | M | p | e | ||||||||||||
| 397 | $(1) | Aguilar,Jesus | 3 | MIA | P | p | * | Nw | |||||||||||
| 273 | $3 | Nunez,Renato | 3 | BAL | F | e | |||||||||||||
| 341 | $1 | Tsutsugo,Yoshitomo | 3 | TAM | M | * | EX | ||||||||||||
| 493 | $(3) | Pujols,Albert | 30 | LAA | F | Ag | |||||||||||||
| 622 | $(5) | Diaz,Aledmys | 34 | HOU | P | INJ | |||||||||||||
| 655 | $(6) | Guzman,Ronald | 3 | TEX | P | inj- | e | ||||||||||||
| 748 | $(7) | Walker,Neil | 35 | MIA | P | * | |||||||||||||
| 479 | $(3) | Smoak,Justin | 30 | MIL | P | PW | * | Rg | -A | Nw | |||||||||
| 748 | $(7) | Davis,Chris | 3 | BAL | P | PW | * | -A | |||||||||||
| 127 | $10 | Santana,Daniel | o38 | TEX | F | s | -A | Rg | |||||||||||
| 233 | $4 | Chavis,Michael | 34 | BOS | M | p | -A | inj- | EX | ||||||||||
| 462 | $(2) | Vogelbach,Daniel | 3 | SEA | F | p | * | -A | e | ||||||||||
| 628 | $(5) | O Hearn,Ryan | 3 | KC | P | p | Rg | -A | e | ||||||||||
| 694 | $(6) | Bird,Gregory | 3 | FAA | P | p | -A | INJ | |||||||||||
ASSETS: PT (Playing time), Pw (Power), Sp (Speed), Av (Batting Effectiveness), * (OBP help), Pk (Park help), Rg (Regression help). LIABILITIES: Sk (Skills risk), Inj (Injury), Ex (Inexperience), Nw (New team), Pk (Park hurt), Ag (Age decline), Rg (Regression hurt)
Premium picks Freddie Freeman (PW,A+|inj-) and Pete Alonso (P+|e) will both be gone within the first 30 selections. After that, there are just five more who fall inside the top 100 ADP.
Both Paul Goldschmidt (PW,a) and Anthony Rizzo (AV) have seen their prices drop again this season. Each lie outside the top 60. On average, Rizzo has been slightly more expensive. This is one of many instances where we find that BABS differs from the marketplace. Not a knock on Rizzo. Consistency has value and is probably the single biggest driver of his draft price.
In the same neighborhood (ADP 65) is Matt Olson (P+,a|inj-), whose skills compare favorably with the aforementioned Alonso. Olson is one of only two hitters in all of baseball with that asset mix. Aaron Judge is the other (ADP 28). Who doesn’t like a discount? But hurry, this one shouldn’t last.
Aside from Carlos Santana (ADP 144), Jose Abreu and Josh Bell (p,AV) are essentially the last chance to obtain liability-free, multi-asset run producers before the position gets dicey. Actually, these three names (plus Goldschmidt) represent the entirety of the “multi-asset/liability-free” group. These boring vets look like “BABS specials” at their market prices.
There’s still plenty of life after pick 100. Besides Goldy, the (PW,a) group is home to Edwin Encarnacion and Luke Voit. Both will bloat the liabilities section of your ledger, but it’s late enough (after pick 180) that the risk is greatly diminished. Monitor these two names: Ji-Man Choi and Rowdy Tellez. It appears the only thing holding them back is opportunity. At ADPs that leave them virtually undrafted, it costs little to find out if the skills can produce with full-time plate appearances.
Yuli Gurriel (AV) and Rhys Hoskins (PW) are (on average) the 8th and 9th names drafted from the 1B position. The skepticism of Gurriel’s 2019 power spike seems to be at least partially priced in to his current ADP. Hoskins has probably earned his diminished draft stock, but if there were ever a case of a player owning a skill once he displays it…It wasn’t so long ago that Hoskins was a top 40ish pick.
Danny Santana (ADP 127) gets one of the healthier doses of BABS’ skepticism. His lone asset (s) seems hardly enough to justify the market price.
Thus far, we’ve mentioned 13 full-time and two mid-time first basemen. The following group is what remains of the BABS full-timers, ranked by ADP:
ADP Player (assets|liabilities) --- -------------------------- 224 Eric Hosmer (a) 241 Daniel Murphy (AV|inj-) 269 Joey Votto (p,AV) 277 Renato Nunez (|e) 262 C.J. Cron (p.a|inj-) 448 Miguel Cabrera (a) 486 Brandon Belt (PW) 488 Dan Vogelbach (p|-AV,e) 507 Albert Pujols ()
Some of these guys won’t hurt you, but this isn’t the catcher position. We want assets, not placeholders.
NOTES: The chart above may vary slightly from the latest database update which was run after this analysis was written. To engage with other readers on this topic, head over to the Reader Forums. If you have a question that would be best answered by one of our experts and benefit everyone, submit it on our Contact Page and put MAILBAG in the Subject Line.
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