MAIL BAGGIES

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How is BABS going to deal with the Houston Astros sign-stealing scandal?

The great thing about BABS is she is uniquely qualified to handle this question, perhaps moreso than any other system. Since she separates risk out from each player’s skills profile, we don’t have to consider whether Alex Bregman is going to hit fewer home runs or whether Jose Altuve can hit .330 again. We know that their underlying skills will generate some type of stat line within a normal range of statistical variability. The unknown relating to how much the cheating affects their stats — if at all — can be captured as another element on the liabilities side of the ledger.

We don’t have a column for “Cheating” but the Regression column is a useful proxy. BABS will not be adding those black marks, but she urges you to do it yourself if you want to include that risk element in your analysis. Feel free to count those marks against your risk budget. For what it’s worth, I am, even if BABS won’t.

Still, BABS cautions painting all Astros players with a broad brush. Those with a long history of exemplary performance may not have been as affected by Garbage-Gate. Players whose current BABS ratings do not seem to reflect their recent statistical output — I’m thinking of Yuri Gurriel, in particular — may already have been dinged for their output not being supported by their skills. And don’t forget the pitchers, who may have benefited from potentially inflated offensive support. BABS looks at Gerrit Cole, now on a new team in a city with unforgiving media, and worries what will happen if he has an “adjustment period.”

Here are some questions related specifically to RotoLab draft software, with responses from Merv Pate. (Note that anything remotely related to RotoLab, should be sent to info@rotolab.com.)

The liability sums appear to be a count based upon all pitchers rostered whether their position rostered is SP, P or RP. But the assets appear to only count players in the position SP. Is that correct?

This is true to an extent.  The BABS system in RotoLab does not count Assets for relievers because of the lack of innings.  However, if you click on OPTIONS at the top of the BABS screen there is an option to count Reliever Extreme Skills (E+ and K+) as an Asset.

Some players show as position SP in the player list but when rostered change to P, which seems to eliminate them from the sum count of assets. Why is that or is it a mistake? Example is SD pitcher Lamet. Is it because he is an SP with P playing time?

Players listed with a playing time rating of F or M are true starters slated as SP in RotoLab . But pitchers with an PT Asset of “P” are 85-119 IP pitchers that may be a starter or a swingman, or a starter not slated for a lot of innings.  But it should count the rosters if they are listed as a starter.  Now, with that said I need to add this: BABSbaseball.com uses a slightly different criteria than RotoLab does for the pitcher tags. RotoLab will mark pitchers as SP if they have a high enough IP / GP.  They can also be tagged as closer if they have enough SAVES / GP.  The rest of the players are lumped into the MR group.  This is one of those areas that can occasionally collide as we have both been in business as separate companies for years. The RotoLab pitcher tag is used throughout the program and therefore what is used on the BABS screen.

Why didn’t the trade to the Twins alter Maeda’s playing time projection (from “M” to “F”)?

Maeda is still behind Odorizzi and Berrios in the pecking order and is not likely to see 180 IP. (His career high of 176 IP was four years ago.)

I have a general question about the liability maximums for pitchers. You stress attempting to draft as few players as possible with liabilities. I understand that premise. What I am curious about is how. When one looks at the BABS list of pitchers in its totality, it seems almost impossible to have a squad that is limited to only two players in both the Health Risk and Experience Risk categories. It seems as if there are not enough pitchers who would be available to draft with good skills without assuming the need to roster quite a few pitchers with health risks.